Yankees vs. Astros Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, Sept. 2

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the New York Yankees-Houston Astros matchup on Tuesday night.

The Houston Astros were just 1-4 in starting pitcher Framber Valdez's outings in August. / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees are in the mix for the AL East crown, sitting just 2.5 games back of the Toronto Blue Jays ahead of their series opener with the Houston Astros. 

Houston is in first place in the AL West, but it actually has a worse record than New York, which has the top wild card spot in the AL. A sweep on either side in this series could really alter the playoff picture in the American League in the final month of the regular season.

A pair of stud lefties will be on the mound on Tuesday, as Framber Valdez (3.18 ERA) looks to rebound from a rough month of August against Yankees ace Max Fried (3.06 ERA).

New York is a slight favorite on the road in this matchup, but Houston has been the franchise’s kryptonite for several years now.

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite prop and a prediction for tonight’s series opener. 

Yankees vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Yankees -1.5 (+144)
• Astros +1.5 (-176)

Moneyline

• Yankees: -118
• Astros: -102

Total

• 8 (Over -103/Under -118)

Yankees vs. Astros Probable Pitchers

• New York: Max Fried (14-5, 3.06 ERA)
• Houston: Framber Valdez (12-7, 3.18 ERA)

Yankees vs. Astros How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Sept. 2
• Time: 8:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Daikin Park
• How to Watch (TV): TBS, SCHN, YES
• Yankees record: 76-61
• Astros record: 76-62

Yankees vs. Astros Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

• Giancarlo Stanton To Hit a Home Run (+360)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why this is a sneaky great matchup for Stanton: 

Stanton has been great for the Yankees in the 2025 season, hitting 17 home runs in 55 games (44 starts) while posting a .295 batting average and a .999 OPS.

He has a tougher matchup on Tuesday night, as Houston Astros lefty Framber Valdez has allowed just nine home runs all season long. So, why bet on Stanton?

Well, the Yankees slugger has absolutely dominated his matchups with Valdez in his career, going 6-for-12 (.500) with one double, one homer and five runs batted in. Even though Valdez is good at avoiding the long ball, Stanton has been able to hit him pretty consistently in his career.

Plus, I think Valdez is worth fading after a rough August where he posted a 5.64 ERA across five starts.   

Yankees vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

On paper, this pitching matchup seems like a great one on Tuesday night, but both of these starters struggled a bit in the month of August.

Fried allowed four or more runs in three of his five starts, posting a 5.14 ERA while leading New York to a 2-3 record in his outings. Valdez wasn’t any better, posting a 5.64 ERA while allowing at least four runs in four of his five outings.

The Astros went just 1-4 in those games.

Now, these pitchers have tough matchups on Tuesday, as the Yankees are seventh in MLB in batting average against lefties while the Astros are sixth. Both of these offenses could give these starters problems, especially if they’re not at the top of their game. 

While the UNDER has hit more often in Houston’s games this season, the Yankees are 66-66-5 to the OVER in 2025. 

I wouldn’t be shocked to see this game reach eight or more runs, especially since New York's bullpen (4.25 ERA) has been questionable in the second half of the season. 

Pick: OVER 8 (-103 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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