Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Monday, July 21

The Yankees are favored on the road on Monday night.

Can New York Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon lead the team to a win as a road favorite? / Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

The AL East race heats up on Monday night, as the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays begin a three-game set in Toronto.

Entering Monday’s action, the Blue Jays hold a three-game lead over the Yankees in the division, but New York stormed back over the weekend to take the final two games of its series with the Atlanta Braves.

Could Aaron Boone’s team turn things around after a rough stretch to end the first half?

New York will turn to lefty Carlos Rodon (3.08 ERA) in the series opener against Toronto’s Kevin Gausman (4.19 ERA). This season, Gausman has struggled against the Yankees, allowing nine runs and eight hits in two starts, leading the Jays to a 1-1 record in those games. 

Here’s a breakdown of Monday's series opener, including the latest odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction. 

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Yankees -1.5 (+139)
• Blue Jays +1.5 (-170)

Moneyline

• Yankees: -120
• Blue Jays: -102

Total

• 8 (Over -119/Under -102)

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Probable Pitchers

• New York: Carlos Rodon (10-6, 3.08 ERA)
• Toronto: Kevin Gausman (6-7, 4.19 ERA)

Yankees vs. Blue Jays How to Watch

• Date: Monday, July 21
• Time: 7:07 p.m. EST
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• How to Watch (TV): SNET, YES
• Yankees record: 55-44
• Blue Jays record: 58-41

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

• Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+100)

In today’s MLB best bets for SI Betting, I shared why Judge is the player that I trust the most in the prop market, as he’s thrived against Gausman in his MLB career:

Why not dive into some player prop action on Monday?

The Yankees and Aaron Judge are three games out of first place in the AL East entering tonight’s matchup with the Toronto Blue Jays, but it’s a matchup that Judge should thrive in.

Toronto is starting Kevin Gausman in this game, and he has not fared well against the reigning AL MVP during his career.

Judge is 16-for-43 (.372) with three doubles, six home runs, 12 runs batted in and 10 walks against Gausman in his career. He has compiled an insane 1.370 OPS against the Blue Jays starter, and I expect him to keep that going on Monday night.

So far this season. Judge is hitting .352 with an MLB-best 128 hits. He is a great bet at even money to record two total bases on Monday.  

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Was New York’s come-from-behind win against the Braves on Saturday night one that could spark a run?

The Yankees erased a 7-2 deficit in that game, and they eventually went on to win on a Trent Grisham grand slam before taking the series finale on Sunday.

New York has struggled against the Jays – and the AL East – this season, but the matchup against Gausman is a good one. Not only does Judge crush the righty, but Gausman has struggled against New York in 2025, allowing nine hits, nine walks and eight earned runs against it. 

Rodon, on the other hand, has been steady for New York all season long, posting a 3.08 ERA. He held the Jays to two runs in five innings in his last outing against them in late June.

I’ll back the Yankees with this pitching matchup on Monday. 

Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-120 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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