Yankees vs. Mets Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Friday, July 4

Iain MacMillan | Jul 4, 2025

The Mets are home favorites against the Yankees on Friday night. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

Is there anything more American than the Subway Series between the Yankees and Mets? That's what we have on tap for this Fourth of July afternoon.

Both teams come into this game amidst some significant struggles. Both the Yankees and Mets have recently lost their division leads and have stumbled down the standings, with the Yankees coming off a four-game sweep at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Let's take a look at the odds and best bets for today's New York showdown.

Yankees vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Run Line

• Yankees +1.5 (-185)
• Mets -1.5 (+154)

Moneyline

• Yankees +110
• Mets -130

Total

• Over 9.5 (-105)
• Under 9.5 (-115)

Yankees vs. Mets Probable Pitchers

• Yankees: Marcus Stroman, RHP (1-1, 816 ERA)
• Mets: Justin Hagenman, RHP (0-0, 1.50 ERA)

Yankees vs. Mets How to Watch

• Date: Friday, July 4
• Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Citi Field
• How to Watch (TV): YES, SNY, MLBN
• Yankees Record: 48-39
• Mets Record: 50-38

Yankees vs. Mets Best MLB Prop Bet

• Juan Soto Home Run (+400) via BetMGM

In today's edition of "Daily Dinger", I broke down why I'm betting on Juan Soto to hit a home run this afternoon:

The second leg of this season's Subway Series is set to take place this weekend, this time, it'll take place in Queens. Nothing would be more electric in today's opener for Juan Soto to hit a home run against his former team, and he's in a good spot to do exactly that.

Marcus Stroman gets the start for the Yankees today, and while he's only appeared in four games this season, he has given up a home run in three of them. If that trend continues, someone on the Mets is bound to hit a dinger against him. Let's take Soto at 4-1.

Yankees vs. Mets Prediction and Pick

I have a lot of concerns with Marcus Stroman being on the mound for the Yankees today. His play has regressed annually over the past five seasons, and he has looked horrific in his four starts in 2025. He managed to allow just one earned run when he returned from injury last week, but that was against a lowly Athletics lineup. The Mets are going to have their chance to get on the board early at home today.

Even if he survives his start, the Yankees' bullpen has been less than stellar this season, ranking 17th in bullpen ERA at 3.90.

I'm going to back the Mets to get the win in the Subway Series opener.

Pick: Mets -130 via BetMGM

---

As a new BetMGM user, you can now claim up to $1,500 in bonus bets when you create an account using BetMGM bonus code SI1500, deposit at least $10, and place a real money wager. If you lose your bet, BetMGM will return your entire stake as bonus bets.

Are you in MI, NJ, PA, or WV? If so, you can bet $10 and receive $150 in bonus bets from BetMGM if you win.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!