Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Thursday, Sept. 18

The Yankees are favored on the road, but can they cover?

New York Yankees right fielder Aaron Judge is a great prop target on Thursday. / Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees cut into their deficit in the AL East on Wednesday night with a win over the Minnesota Twins, and now they’ll hit the road to play the Baltimore Orioles in a weekend series beginning on Thursday.

Max Fried (3.03 ERA) is on the mound for New York as he looks to build on a strong 2025 season where he’s led the Yankees to a 20-10 record in his 30 starts. After a rough stretch in August, Fried has posted an ERA of 1.95 over his last five outings.

The O’s, who have been eliminated from playoff contention in the AL, will send a lefty of their own to the mound in this series opener. Cade Povich (5.05 ERA) makes his 21st appearance of the season and second against the Yanks.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Thursday’s action. 

Yankees vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Yankees -1.5 (-131)
• Orioles +1.5 (+108)

Moneyline

• Yankees: -219
• Orioles: +177

Total

• 9 (Over -103/Under -118)

Yankees vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

• New York: Max Fried (17-5, 3.03 ERA)
• Baltimore: Cade Povich (3-7, 5.05 ERA)

Yankees vs. Orioles How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 18
• Time: 7:15 p.m. EST
• Venue: Camden Yards
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Yankees record: 85-67
• Orioles record: 72-80

Yankees vs. Orioles Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+211)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why Judge is a great target against the O’s:

It’s hard to find a better matchup than the one that Judge has one Thursday night.

The New York Yankees open their series with the Baltimore Orioles, and Judge is facing lefty Cade Povich for the third time in his career.

In his previous five plate appearances against the Orioles lefty? Two home runs and three walks. Not bad!

Povich has given up 17 home runs in 20 appearances in the 2025 season, and Judge has been one of the best hitters in baseball against lefties this season.

The Yankees superstar is hitting .339 with a 1.260 OPS against lefties, smacking 14 home runs in just 112 at bats. He’s a great target on Thursday night. 

Yankees vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

The Yankees face a brutal turnaround travel wise, as they played in Minnesota on Wednesday night and didn’t get into Baltimore until the early hours of the morning on Thursday.

Despite that, the Yankees are massive favorites with Fried on the mound.

While I don’t disagree that New York should be favored in this game, I think there is some value in taking the O’s at plus money on the run line in this matchup. Baltimore has gone 16-7 on the run line as a home underdog, and there should be some concerns for the Yankees once Fried exits.

New York’s bullpen has struggled this season, posting a 4.57 ERA which is amongst the 10-worst marks in the league. 

On top of that, the Yankees are just 27-38 on the run line when favored on the road.

I think New York can get to Povich (5.05 ERA) in this matchup, but he did hold the Yanks to three runs over 4.2 innings in a 5-4 win earlier this season.

With New York’s bullpen nearly blowing a huge lead on Tuesday against Minnesota, I think there’s value in getting a cushion on the O’s to lose by one – or win – at plus money. 

Pick: Orioles +1.5 (+108 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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