Yankees vs. Rays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Tuesday, Aug. 19

The Yankees are road favorites on Tuesday night.

New York Yankees starting pitcher Carlos Rodon has led them to a 13-12 record in 25 starts. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees have won seven of their last 10 games and are back in the top wild card spot in the American League heading into their series opener with the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday, Aug. 19.

Tampa Bay has fallen out of the playoff race in the AL, and it moved on from a few pieces at the trade deadline to signal that it wasn’t going to go all-in to make the postseason.

Meanwhile, New York has rebounded a bit from a rough June and July, and it’s sitting in a tie with the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners in the wild card standings. While the AL East crown may be tough to capture for New York (it’s five games back of the Toronto Blue Jays), the playoffs are certainly within reach.

On Tuesday, Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon will aim to build on a strong 2025 season against a Tampa Bay team that is 23rd in MLB in batting average against left-handed pitching. The Rays will counter with righty Shane Baz, who has posted a 4.93 ERA in 24 outings.

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this AL East battle. 

Yankees vs. Rays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

• Yankees -1.5 (+113)
• Rays +1.5 (-137)

Moneyline

• Yankees: -149
• Rays: +123

Total

• 8.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Yankees vs. Rays Probable Pitchers

• New York: Carlos Rodon (12-7, 3.25 ERA)
• Tampa Bay: Shane Baz (8-9, 4.93 ERA)

Yankees vs. Rays How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Aug. 19
• Time: 7:35 p.m. EST
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• How to Watch (TV): FDSSUN, YES
• Yankees record: 67-57
• Rays record: 61-64

Yankees vs. Rays Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bets

• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+205)

Does Aaron Judge leave the yard on Tuesday? 

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – why the Yankees star has a great matchup against Tampa Bay: 

Yankees superstar Aaron Judge has struggled a bit since coming off the injured list, hitting .229 with two homers over the last two weeks (11 games).

However, Judge has a favorable matchup on Tuesday night against the Tampa Bay Rays and righty Shane Baz. So far this season, Baz has a 4.93 ERA, and he’s allowed 21 home runs in 24 appearances.

Judge has faced Baz eight times in his MLB career, going 3-for-8 with one homer and a pair of walks, good for an OPS of 1.250. 

Overall, Judge has dominated against right-handed pitching, hitting .335 with 28 homers. He’s worth a look in this matchup on Tuesday night. 

Yankees vs. Rays Prediction and Pick

Have the Yankees finally turned a corner in 2025?

New York has a chance to run away with the top wild-card spot in the AL, as it has one of the five easiest remaining schedules in MLB this season. That starts with this series against Tampa, a pseudo home series for the Yanks, who are playing at their spring training facility. 

Rodon has been great in 2025, posting a 3.25 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, and he shut down the Rays earlier this season, allowing just two hits across six innings of work.

While the Yankees are only 13-12 in Rodon’s outings this season, he’s given up three or fewer earned runs in 18 starts.

Meanwhile, Baz has struggled in August, allowing four or more runs in each of his three outings, posting a 7.31 ERA. Overall, the Rays righty has an expected ERA of 3.76 this season, but his actual ERA is more than a run higher.

At some point, there may be some positive regression for the young right-hander, but I don’t expect it to come against a New York offense that tagged him for five runs in 3.1 innings earlier this season.

The Yankees are No. 1 in MLB in OPS and No. 3 in runs scored, while the Rays are one of the worst teams in MLB against left-handed pitching.

This is a great spot to back the Yanks as small road favorites. 

Pick: Yankees Moneyline (-149 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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