Yankees vs. Royals Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers and Prop Bets for Wednesday, June 11

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the New York Yankees-Kansas City Royals matchup on June 11.

New York Yankees designated hitter Aaron Judge is a great prop target on Wednesday. / Peter Aiken-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees are coming off a commanding win on Tuesday night over the Kansas City Royals, and they’re favored on the road on Wednesday despite facing one of the best pitchers in baseball this season.

Royals left Kris Bubic has a 1.43 ERA so far in 2025, but the Royals are just 7-5 in his outings. The Yankees are countering with Clarke Schmidt on the mound, who has an expected ERA that is much better than his actual 4.04 ERA in 2025.

After the Yankee offense dominated on Tuesday, the Royals are hoping to keep them in check to even this series.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch, and my prediction as New York battles Kansas City in an ALDS rematch. 

Yankees vs. Royals Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Yankees -1.5 (+129)
• Royals +1.5 (-158)

Moneyline

• Yankees: -132
• Royals: +108

Total

• 9 (Over -101/Under -121)

Yankees vs. Royals Probable Pitchers

• New York: Clarke Schmidt (2-3, 4.04 ERA)
• Kansas City: Kris Bubic (5-3, 1.43 ERA)

Yankees vs. Royals How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, June 11
• Time: 7:40 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): Amazon Prime Video
• Yankees record: 40-25
• Royals record: 34-33

Yankees vs. Royals Best MLB Prop Bets

Yankees Best MLB Prop Bet

• Aaron Judge to Hit a Home Run (+200)

Earlier today in SI Betting’s best home run picks – Daily Dinger – I broke down why Judge is worth a bet against Bubic: 

Judge hit a towering 469-foot home run on Tuesday night against Noah Cameron, and he could be in a good spot to go deep again on Wednesday.

Kansas City Royals lefty Kris Bubic has given up just three homers and has a 1.43 ERA this season, but Judge has fared extremely well against him in his career.

In seven at bats against the lefty, Judge is 4-for-7 with a double and a home run. So far this season, the reigning AL MVP is hitting .417 with a shocking 1.000 slugging percentage against lefties. He’s hit eight homers against them, and over the last week, Judge is hitting a blistering .478.

Even though Bubic has been awesome in 2025, Judge is worth a look in this matchup. 

Yankees vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Is the total too high in this matchup? 

I shared in today’s Walk-Off Wagers – our MLB best bets at SI – why I’m playing the UNDER in this rematch from last season’s ALDS:

The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals played a high-scoring game – mainly led by the New York offense – on Tuesday, but I expect a lower-scoring matchup on Wednesday.

Kris Bubic (1.43 ERA) is on the mound for the Royals, and he has just three outings all season where he’s given up two or more earned runs. Since the start of May, Bubic has 0.69 ERA, allowing just three runs in 39.1 innings of work.

The Yankees counter with Clarke Schmidt in this matchup, and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight of his nine starts while posting a 3.07 expected ERA (79th percentile in MLB). 

So far in 2025, the Royals have been one of the best UNDER teams in the league (39-27-1), and they’ve combined for nine or fewer runs in nine of Bubic’s 12 starts. I love the UNDER in Game 2 of this series.

Pick: UNDER 9 (-121 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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