Should Collectors Caution with Victor Wembanyama Cards Rising?
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With the NBA playoffs in full swing, it’s only natural for certain players to heat up on the court and in the hobby. So, as Victor Wembanyama cards continue climbing in value, while the Spurs prove their regular-season success was no fluke, it shouldn’t come as much of a surprise to collectors.
The 22-year-old superstar has quickly established himself as one of the faces of the league, and the market is responding accordingly.
Wemby /299 Setting Records Daily
Take, for example, his 2023 Panini Prizm Red Prizm rookie card, numbered to 299 copies. According to PSA, 163 examples have already received a PSA 10 grade. For some perspective, that same card could have been purchased for under $5,000 as recently as December. It’s a pattern collectors have seen many times before, and one that naturally creates concern about what Wembanyama’s long-term market could look like.
However, over the last week we've seen multiple sales over $8,500 for the red /299 Prizm rookies in a PSA 10.
The reasoning behind this is multi-faceted, with Wembanyama in particular, but in many ways, it’s a story collectors have seen play out time and time again. A massive regular season followed by a strong playoff run sends card prices soaring to the moon, only for many of them to eventually come crashing back down to earth once the hype settles. The hobby has a long history of pricing in future greatness far earlier than it probably should.
Panini Prizm Trae Young Nebula rookie card 1/1:
— lememe_james (@LememeJames) May 6, 2026
In 2021, sold for $391K
In 2026, sold for $69K
That is a $322K loss (82% decrease) 😞 pic.twitter.com/rCCwaOW3SB
Even if Wembanyama were to win a championship and Finals MVP, it would still be fair to question whether some of his current pricing is justified long term.
His cards are already valued higher than those of Shaquille O'Neal, a four-time NBA champion and undisputed top-10 player of all time. While Wembanyama is clearly an incredible talent with sky-high potential, he has yet to win anything at the highest level. At his size, there will always be at least some level of injury risk tied to his long-term outlook.
Looking at Similar Cards of Other Playoff Stars
Now let’s go back to the Red Prizm rookie card mentioned earlier, of which there are currently 163 PSA 10s. It’s hard to fully come to terms with the fact that the card is valued at nearly three times the price of the same card for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, an MVP and Finals MVP who may very well add another of each this year, despite Shai’s card having almost a third of the PSA 10 population. That alone shows just how aggressively the market is pricing in Wembanyama’s future potential rather than his current resume.
All of this doesn’t even factor in the reality that centers, historically speaking, have not held long-term card value particularly well compared to guards and wings. The hype surrounding Wembanyama has clearly pushed prices to incredible heights, and collectors choosing to ride that wave have to accept the level of risk that comes with it.
Now, could Wembanyama absolutely defy the odds? Of course.
He possesses a level of talent and uniqueness that the NBA has arguably never seen before, and it’s understandable why collectors may believe his global popularity and collectability alone could help sustain his market even if every on-court accolade doesn’t fully materialize.
That said, buying in at extremely elevated prices while hoping a player breaks historical trends is not something that has proven profitable over the years. However, for true collectors who simply enjoy the hobby and are less concerned with long-term value, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with going along for the ride and collecting what you love.
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Jason is a dedicated basketball card collector who recently transitioned into writing and educating others about the sports card industry. Find him on Instagram @jeancardz