Timberwolves vs. Spurs Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 5

The ultimate swing game is set for Tuesday night, as the Minnesota Timberwolves hit the road for Game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals against the San Antonio Spurs.

San Antonio is favored by double digits at home in this matchup, but these teams are knotted at two games apiece after Game 4. Victor Wembanyama has played a big role in wins (39 points in Game 3) and losses (ejected for a Flagrant 2 in Game 4) for the Spurs, and he’s expected to be in the lineup on Tuesday night.

Meanwhile, the Wolves are getting closer and closer to full strength with both Ayo Dosunmu (calf) and Anthony Edwards (knee) back in the starting lineup. Minnesota has made back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances, so it’s hard to count this team out – even on the road.

The Spurs lost Game 1 at home by two points, but they responded with a 38-point win in Game 2. So, it makes sense that they remain favored in Game 5, especially after they won two of three home games in the first round against Portland, only losing Game 2 when Wembanyama suffered a concussion.

There are plenty of ways to bet on this standalone game, and I’m eyeing a player prop and a game pick to help bettors wager on this Western Conference showdown.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Timberwolves +10.5 (-110)
Spurs -10.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Timberwolves: +320
Spurs: -410

Total

218.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Timberwolves vs. Spurs How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, May 12
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Frost Bank Center
How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
Series: Tied 2-2

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Injury Reports

Timberwolves Injury Report

Donte DiVincenzo -- out

Spurs Injury Report

De'Aaron Fox -- questionable

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Best NBA Prop Bets

Spurs Best NBA Prop Bet

Dylan Harper OVER 10.5 Points (-117)

Spurs rookie Dylan Harper is coming off a huge Game 4, scoring 24 points on 8-of-11 shooting while also knocking down all seven of his free-throw attempts. Harper may not have as big of a role in Game 5 with Wembanyama set to return, but he’s still scored 11 or more points in five of his last seven games and three of four games in this series.

San Antonio is playing Harper 25 minutes per game, and he’s shooting 55.6 percent from the field and 40.0 percent from 3, averaging 13.8 points per game in the postseason.

I expect the rookie to continue to play a big role at home, where he cleared this total in Games 1 and 2.

Harper averaged 11.8 points per game in the regular season, and he’s seen his minutes rise in the playoffs as the clear top bench option for the Spurs.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Wolves can cover on the road in Game 5:

I think the Timberwolves are grossly undervalued in Game 5, and there’s a case to be made that they can pull off the upset.

Minnesota already has a win under its belt in San Antonio, and it held off the Spurs at home in Game 4 for a huge win to even this series. San Antonio may be the better team in this series, but the numbers certainly favor San Antonio much more because of the 38-point win in Game 2.

Anthony Edwards and Ayo Dosunmu returning to the starting lineup certainly raises Minnesota’s ceiling, and I’m not going to underestimate the importance of this team making back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances. The Spurs don’t have nearly as much experience, and Wemby’s Flagrant 2 in Game 4 could be a turning point in this series.

Not only did it help the Wolves tie things up, but it certainly has created some sort of bad blood between these teams – something that clearly helped Minnesota in the Denver series. Now, the Wolves have a chance to play spoiler on the road in Game 5, and all the pressure is on the Spurs to win and set up a close out scenario in Game 6.

The Wolves remain one of the better defensive teams in the league, and Edwards’ recent surge (32 points in Game 3, 36 in Game 4) makes them a much more formidable opponent than when he was on a minutes limit.

Game 2 was a complete throwaway game from Minnesota after it stole Game 1, and it already has either won or kept the other three games within 10 points. I’m buying the Wolves to at least cover on Tuesday night.

Pick: Timberwolves +10.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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