Men’s Bracket Watch: Indiana, Xavier Have Difficult Paths Into NCAA Tournament

Texas moves up after an improbable win against Texas A&M in double overtime to add a second Quad 1 win this week.

Indiana coach Mike Woodson and center Oumar Ballo during the Big Ten tournament. / Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Welcome to college basketball’s championship week! With Selection Sunday officially days, and not weeks, away, Sports Illustrated is bringing you daily (and sometimes hourly) updates to the projected field as conference tournament results come in. From automatic bids being locked up in smaller conferences to key bubble battles in the power leagues, we’re keeping you updated with all the news and notes to get you prepared for the bracket reveal Sunday evening.

Here’s a look at the latest projected men’s field as of 8 p.m. ET Thursday.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Utah State Aggies
Vanderbilt Commodores
Baylor Bears
West Virginia Mountaineers

Last Four In 

San Diego State Aztecs
Texas Longhorns
Indiana Hoosiers
Xavier Musketeers

First Four Out 

North Carolina Tar Heels
Colorado State Rams
Boise State Broncos
UC Irvine Anteaters

Next Four Out

Ohio State Buckeyes
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
SMU Mustangs
Dayton Flyers

Notes From Thursday Afternoon

Indiana and Xavier each entered the day in the projected field with opportunities to boost their résumés with Quad 1 wins. Neither took advantage, with the Hoosiers falling apart late against Oregon and Xavier blowing a 14-point second half lead to Marquette. Neither team falls out of the field as of Thursday, but their paths each got a lot dicier, especially with other bubble teams still playing this weekend. For Indiana, the résumé flaw is just two wins against the projected field. Those two wins are elite (at Michigan State, home vs. Purdue) but the résumé is lacking otherwise. For Xavier, having just one Quad 1 win is a big problem, though the Musketeers did a good job of avoiding bad losses all season. I’d rather be the Hoosiers as of today, but it’s conceivable both could be left at home depending on these final three days. 

Leapfrogging those two teams is Texas, after the Longhorns improbably won against Texas A&M in double overtime to add a second Quad 1 win this week and get to 19–14 on the year. The Horns are certainly not safely in the field by any means, but now will get a crack at Tennessee on Friday in a game that would likely lock them in. 

All this was good news for North Carolina, after the Heels held serve against Wake Forest to set up a third matchup this season against Duke Friday. The Heels remain out of SI’s projected field, but have more chances to boost the résumé and jump the likes of Indiana, Xavier and Texas. 

Notes From Wednesday

Texas vaults into the field after its Quad 1 win over Vanderbilt combined with Ohio State’s loss to Iowa. The Buckeyes are essentially eliminated at 17–15 from serious at-large contention, leaving Texas, North Carolina and a trio of mid-majors in the mix for what is currently the last spot in the field. That spot may not last long though: Texas likely needs a win over Texas A&M to stay in the field after today, though no one seems to be rushing to claim the last spot in the Big Dance.

It’s almost impossible to envision North Carolina getting in without at least beating Wake Forest on Thursday. A win over Duke may no longer be a necessity with other bubble teams dropping, but the 1–11 record against Quad 1 is an eyesore. Xavier could solidify itself in the field with a win over Marquette. Without it, don’t be shocked if the Musketeers get jumped on Selection Sunday. And circle Boise State vs. San Diego State in the Mountain West quarterfinals as a massive bubble clash: Boise needs it more than the Aztecs, though SDSU’s chances of a trip to Dayton rise immensely with a loss.

Bubble Games to Watch Thursday

Colorado State vs. Nevada, 9 p.m. ET
SMU vs. Clemson, 9:30 p.m. ET
Utah State vs. UNLV, 11:30 p.m. ET

Projecting the Field

BOLD indicates clinched automatic bid
* indicates projected automatic bid

South Region

No. 1 Auburn Tigers* vs. No. 16 SIUE Cougars/Saint Francis Red Flash
No. 8 UConn Huskies vs. No. 9 New Mexico Lobos*
No. 5 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 12 Liberty Flames*
No. 4 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 13 Yale Bulldogs*
No. 6 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs/Texas Longhorns
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 14 Wofford Terriers
No. 7 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 10 Baylor Bears
No. 2 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 15 Montana Grizzlies

East Region 

No. 1 Duke Blue Devils* vs. No. 16 American Eagles/Jackson State Tigers*
No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Creighton Bluejays
No. 5 BYU Cougars vs. No. 12 McNeese State Cowboys
No. 4 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 13 Akron Zips*
No. 6 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 11 West Virginia Mountaineers
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 14 Utah Valley Wolverines
No. 7 Gonzaga Bulldogs* vs. No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks
No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 15 Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks

Midwest Region 

No. 1 Houston Cougars* vs. No. 16 Quinnipiac Bobcats*
No. 8 Memphis Tigers* vs. No. 9 Georgia Bulldogs
No. 5 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 12 Xavier Musketeers/Indiana Hoosiers
No. 4 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 13 Lipscomb Bisons
No. 6 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 11 Drake Bulldogs
No. 3 St. John's Red Storm* vs. No. 14 Troy Trojans
No. 7 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 10 Utah State Aggies
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 Bryant Bulldogs*

West Region

No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans*
No. 8 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners
No. 5 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 12 VCU Rams*
No. 4 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 13 High Point Panthers
No. 6 Saint Mary's Gaels vs. No. 11 UC San Diego Tritons*
No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 14 UNC Wilmington Seahawks
No. 7 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans* vs. No. 15 Robert Morris Colonials