- After needing a 20-point comeback to top rival FSU two weeks ago, Miami lost outright at Virginia last week. Can the Hurricanes get it together in time for a Friday night game at Boston College?
Miami (-3.5) at Boston College
Fri. 10/26, 7:00 p.m. ET
Three things you need to know before betting on Miami-Boston College:
1. Miami and Boston College haven’t met since 2012, when the Hurricanes won 41-32 as 2.5-point road favorites. BC hasn't topped .500 in conference play in the years since, but this year's team could break that streak. Boston College has lost only two games this season, and both were on the road—against Purdue and NC State, two solid teams. Head coach Steve Addazio has the Eagles heading in the right direction and there are quite a few reasons to believe they’ll be just fine against Miami. One thing worth noting is the fact that the Hurricanes are a miserable 0-6 against the spread in road games when coming off an ATS loss since the start of the 2016 season. But even more noteworthy is Boston College's 9-1 record against the spread when facing ACC opponents since the start of last season and 7-0 ATS mark when coming off a home game in that span.
2. Miami’s rushing defense has been remarkable this season, allowing only 105.6 yards per game on the year (10th in FBS). But Miami hasn’t faced a top-25 rushing offense like Boston College’s yet, and the Hurricanes had a ton of trouble stopping LSU’s 47th-ranked running game in the opening week of the season. No disrespect to LSU running back Nick Brossette, but AJ Dillon—who has missed the last two games for Boston College—is a much better player. There will certainly be some questions about Dillon’s health heading into this one, but the sophomore has now had more than enough time to get his ankle right. It’d be surprising if he didn’t play in this game, and almost as surprising if he didn’t play well.
3. Boston College’s defense has been sturdy against opposing quarterbacks this season, as the Eagles are allowing only 223.6 yards per game through the air (56th in FBS) and have given up only eight passing touchdowns on the season (30th). But that’s not all. Boston College has also accumulated 11 interceptions this year, which is the eighth-best mark in the country. And the Eagles now get to face one of the more disappointing quarterback situations in college football this season. In freshman N’Kosi Perry and senior Malik Rosier, the Hurricanes have two guys at quarterback that head coach Mark Richt can’t trust. After Rosier started the season miserably, Richt turned to Perry as his starter against North Carolina. But Rosier ended up being back under center against Virginia, and now it’s unclear who is running this offense. Rosier seems likely to start in this game, but Boston College has the type of defense that could have his head spinning. It wouldn’t be surprising if Rosier had a lousy game and Perry ended up needing to come in.
Pick: Boston College
Confidence Level: High (on a scale of Low/Moderate/High/Very High/Extremely High)