How the Big 12 Championship Could Impact Notre Dame’s College Football Playoff Hopes

Much of the debate has been between whether Notre Dame or Miami deserves to be in the field, but it’s BYU that holds all the cards.

Bear Bachmeier and BYU hold all the cards to Notre Dame's playoff hopes. / Rob Gray-Imagn Images

No. 11 BYU squares off against No. 4 Texas Tech in the Big 12 championship game on Saturday, in a contest that could have significant College Football Playoff ramifications—not just for the Cougars, but for the final at-large team currently in the field - Notre Dame.

Let's breakdown how the Big 12 championship could impact the playoff standing for both the Cougars and Fighting Irish heading into Saturday.

The Projected College Football Playoff Bracket Entering Conference Championship Week

Entering conference championship weekend, the committee has released its final bracket prior to Selection Sunday. Here's how the field currently shakes out.

Top Four (First-Round Byes)

1. Ohio State Buckeyes

2. Indiana Hoosiers

3. Georgia Bulldogs

4. Texas Tech Red Raiders

First-Round Matchups

5. Oregon Ducks (At-Large Bid) vs. Fifth-Ranked Conference Champion

The Ducks are currently projected to host the fifth (lowest)-ranked conference champion in the field. If Virginia wins the ACC title, the Ducks would likely face the winner of the American Conference title game between Tulane and North Texas in this contest.

If Duke knocks off Virginia, there's a chance that the winner of the American becomes the fourth-highest ranked conference champion in the field, and a second Group of Five team gets into the dance. That team would likely be James Madison out of the Sun Belt, which could finish 12–1 assuming the Dukes take care of business as a three-score favorite against Troy on Saturday in the league title game.

6. Ole Miss Rebels (At-Large Bid) vs. Fourth-Ranked Conference Champion

The scenario above impacts who Ole Miss will likely see. The Rebels are projected to face either Virginia or the winner of the AAC (Tulane or North Texas).

7. Texas A&M Aggies (At-Large Bid) vs. No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (At-Large Bid)

This entire column is about how Notre Dame can get knocked from this perch (more on that in a minute). The Aggies are looking set to host a home playoff game, and in this scenario, it would be a rematch of a 41–40 barn-burner of a win for A&M in South Bend back in Week 3.

8. Oklahoma Sooners (At-Large Bid) vs. No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide (At-Large Bid)

The Sooners are locked firmly into an at-large bid for the playoff thanks to surviving a close affair with LSU last Saturday. Alabama certainly has a chance to move up in the bracket if the Crimson Tide win Saturday's SEC title game, but they’re currently ranked ninth heading into the contest.

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How a BYU win could send Notre Dame to a bowl game instead of the College Football Playoff

At 11–1, BYU is currently ranked No. 11 in the College Football Playoff poll. But since the highest-ranked Group of Five champion receives an automatic bid, the Cougars are currently on the outside looking in. Notre Dame, ranked at No. 10, is the final team in the field and the program “most” on the bubble in the bracket.

A BYU win in the Big 12 championship game, by any margin, will send two Big 12 teams to the College Football Playoff. Texas Tech will not fall from No. 4 in the field all the way out of the bracket with the way the program has played this season. The Red Raiders would be an at-large selection in the event of a loss to the Cougars.

Saturday’s Big 12 championship game between Texas Tech and BYU is a rematch of a Nov. 11 meeting in Lubbock, which the Red Raiders won handily 29–7. If the Cougars find a way to pull off an upset on Saturday, Notre Dame will most certainly be out of the field.

Could a narrow BYU loss to Texas Tech protect Notre Dame from losing an at-large berth?

The answer to this question lies solely in whether or not the Cougars deserve to be penalized for playing one extra game. Currently, the Cougars are sandwiched between Notre Dame at No. 10 and Miami at No. 12. Both the Irish and Hurricanes are 10–2 on the season, with Miami owning a head-to-head win over Notre Dame in Week 1. To date, the committee has been fine ranking Notre Dame ahead of Miami, despite the latter’s head-to-head win over the former, since they have not been evaluated in the ranking right beside each other. Would a narrow BYU loss in an extra game be enough to drop the Cougars behind Miami in the ranking, thus setting up that potential head-to-head tiebreaker for the Hurricanes? If not, Notre Dame could be heading to the College Football Playoff.

A BYU blowout loss could spell trouble for Notre Dame’s playoff hopes

The committee has long indicated that it doesn’t want to penalize teams for losing in a conference championship game, because at that point, the conference title loser could miss out on a chance to compete for a national championship. If that was the case, schools would be better off having a strong record and narrowly missing out on the league title game, and may as well play the standard 12-game schedule, finish 10–2 or better (in most cases), and have a great shot at an at-large berth.

An exception could be made in a blowout loss for a fringe playoff team. For BYU, the only conceivable scenario for them making the bracket is to win the Big 12. If they lose, they’re out. If they lose by a lot, Notre Dame could be out.

Why? Notre Dame’s head-to-head loss to Miami.

Notre Dame would most certainly be ranked either No. 10 or No. 11 with Miami next to them, and BYU would fall to No. 12 or lower. Where BYU falls is irrelevant to the playoff if they lose by multiple scores and fall behind Miami.

As mentioned above, the committee has done its best to protect itself from having to answer the question of why Notre Dame continues to be ranked ahead of Miami despite both programs being 10–2 and Miami holding the head-to-head win. The Irish rank higher in ESPN’s Football Power Index (No.3 vs. No. 7), strength of schedule (No. 42 vs. No. 44), strength of record (No. 13 vs. No. 14), game control (No. 5 vs. No. 6), Sagarin (No. 2 vs. No. 6) and Football Efficiency Index (No. 4 vs. No. 10).

The Irish own all the metrics, but they lost the game on the field. At some point, that has to matter. But perhaps the only way it will matter is if the two programs are ranked side-by-side in the final rankings when evaluating which team should make it into the final at-large spot in the field.

There’s also the other school of thought, where if Miami was going to be ranked ahead of Notre Dame, wouldn’t the committee have made that change already? Neither team is playing this weekend, with both regular seasons complete.

Time will tell on Sunday, and much of it likely rides on how BYU looks in the Big 12 title game against Texas Tech.

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