Virginia vs. Duke: Three Bold Predictions for ACC Championship Game

The ACC title game could knock the conference totally out of the College Football Playoff after 7-5 Duke made the championship in Charlotte.

Virginia and starting quarterback Chandler Morris dominated Duke in the first meeting this season. / Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

Saturday's ACC championship game in Charlotte features the 10-win Virginia Cavaliers and 7-5 Duke Blue Devils, the latter of which clinched a conference title berth thanks to winning a five-way tiebreak for second in the ACC with a 6-2 conference record.

A Virginia victory would validate the Cavaliers as one of the most surprising college football success stories of the 2025 season. The 'Hoos would be a worthy conference champion punching their ticket to the College Football Playoff.

A Duke win would represent the ACC's worst nightmare. An 8-5 conference champion Duke that's been inconsistent all season long would likely be seen as the sixth-best conference champion, with only the five-highest ranked conference champions receiving automatic bids to the College Football Playoff. A Duke win would likely end the ACC's hopes of making the College Football Playoff, with the American Athletic Conference champion (Tulane or North Texas), as well as James Madison out of the Sun Belt (assuming a win over Troy as a multiscore favorite) making it into the bracket.

Two Group of Five conference champions and no ACC champion would be a devastating development for ACC commissioner Jim Phillips, especially when factoring in the loss of potential playoff cash for the conference.

But will Duke overtake Virginia to cause playoff chaos? Let's dive in with three bold predictions (including a pick).

Duke's offense will enjoy more consistent, sustained success in the rematch, and the Blue Devils will lead the game at halftime

In the first half of the first meeting between Duke and Virginia, the Blue Devils managed just 50 yards of total offense (16 in the first quarter and 34 in the second). Virginia's defense is good, but it's not that good to be holding the Blue Devils and their top 35 offense down like that once, let alone twice.

The Blue Devils will play better from the jump in Saturday's ACC title game, with Duke scoring early and often. Don't expect Duke to be down big at halftime again. In fact, Duke will lead at halftime of this second matchup.

Virginia's Chandler Morris will exceed his 316-yard output from the first matchup to pace Duke, and wide receiver Trell Harris will eclipse 175 yards receiving

Despite Duke's offensive success, the defense won't be able to keep up with Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris, who will have plenty of offensive success of his own. Morris completed 23 of his 35 passes in the first matchup between the Cavaliers and Blue Devils for 316 yards and two touchdowns to go along with two interceptions.

He'll play well again on Saturday. Duke's passing defense has been leaky all year, and the Cavaliers have had very little issue moving the ball through the air. The connection between Morris and wideout Trell Harris has proved lethal all season, and the first game between these two teams was no exception. Harris caught eight passes for 161 yards and a touchdown. He's going to exceed 175 yards in the rematch on Saturday.

The Morris to Harris connection will be alive and well on Saturday night. Morris will best his 316-yard output from the first matchup and will not turn the ball over, and Harris will feast against a vulnerable Duke secondary once again.

The Cavaliers will clinch the ACC a spot in the College Football Playoff with a shootout win

This game is going to sail over the current total of 57.5. Duke's offense will contribute meaningful drives in the first half and will not struggle to move the ball nearly as much as the first tilt, while Virginia's offense should have plenty of success of their own. This will be one of the most entertaining games of the day, and I'm projecting a back-and-forth shootout.

It may come down to the final possession of the contest, where Virginia—the more consistent team all season—will execute at a higher level when the stakes are at their highest.

Virginia wins the ACC title and punches its ticket to the College Football Playoff. The playoff demise of the ACC is greatly exaggerated!

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