Rose Bowl Preview: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State

Rose Bowl Preview: Can Marcus Mariota and Oregon get the best of Jameis Winston and Florida State?

LOS ANGELES -- The first College Football Playoff will kick off with a game that matches two Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks in the sport's most iconic setting. Las Vegas bookmakers don’t think the game will match the hype -- Oregon is a nine-point favorite -- but Florida State still hasn’t lost and a has shown a knack for winning close games. The spread is so wide because the Seminoles have won their last four games by an average of 3.5 points, while the Ducks have won by an average margin of 26 in the eight games they’ve played since left tackle Jake Fisher returned from a two-game absence due to injury. Still, Florida State has the best collection of athletes Oregon has faced all season, and the Ducks must recover from yet another injury to a critical player.

Points of interest

1. Clash of award-winning quarterbacks: This will be the third meeting between a pair of starting quarterbacks who own Heismans. Oregon’s Marcus Mariota collected his hardware on Dec. 13, while Florida State’s Jameis Winston won his while leading the Seminoles to a national title as a redshirt freshman last year.

Opposing coach's take: Sizing up Florida State before the Rose Bowl

The first meeting between two Heisman-winning quarterbacks came in the Orange Bowl following the 2004 season. USC’s Matt Leinart, the '04 winner, led the Trojans to a 55-19 win over Oklahoma and '03 winner Jason White. Four years later in the same stadium, '07 winner Tim Tebow led Florida to a 24-14 win over '08 winner Sam Bradford’s Oklahoma team in the BCS championship.

Mariota (38 touchdowns, 2 interceptions) had a far more efficient 2014 campaign than Winston (24 touchdowns, 17 interceptions), but Mariota also did something Winston has not done. He lost. Mariota was sacked five times in a 31-24 loss to Arizona on Oct. 2. On Thursday he’ll face the fastest front seven he has seen all season. Meanwhile, Winston will have to find ways to throw over Oregon defensive linemen Arik Armstead (6-foot-8, 290 pounds) and DeForest Buckner (6-7, 290).

2. A secondary without Ifo: Winston and leading receiver Rashad Greene will not have to face Oregon’s best cornerback. Ifo Ekpre-Olomu will miss the Rose Bowl after tearing an ACL in practice earlier this month. Senior Troy Hill will likely draw the assignments Ekpre-Olomu would have drawn, while redshirt freshman Chris Seisay and senior Dior Mathis will fill in on the other side.

Oregon's defense seeking to make statement against FSU in Rose Bowl

Because of the Ducks’ defensive substitution patterns -- which occasionally resemble hockey line changes -- and because of the lopsided wins Oregon has racked up, the backups have played significant snaps. “I think the fact that we had [them in] at the end of some games, were able to put some guys in and get them some experience, that’s always valuable,” Oregon defensive coordinator Don Pellum said. “I think even more valuable is the time the guys have rotated in the beginning of those games, because they’re different. That’s the battle-tested part of it, and I think our system has helped us from that standpoint.”

3. Seminoles at full strength: Florida State is less banged-up than it has been for most of the season. When the Seminoles faced Louisville on Oct. 30, they had three healthy linebackers. Winston injured his ankle in the same game, but he didn’t miss any action. Tailback Karlos Williams suffered a concussion against Florida on Nov. 29 that kept him out of the ACC title game against Georgia Tech, but he plans to be back on Thursday. Against the Yellow Jackets, Florida State lost defensive tackle Eddie Goldman (ankle) and cornerback Ronald Darby (arm), but coach Jimbo Fisher said both should be ready for the Rose Bowl. In fact, Fisher isn’t sure of the last time his team was this healthy. “I couldn't tell you,” he said on Sunday. “I can't remember that far back. Maybe the first day of camp.”

Burning question

Can the Ducks cover receiver Rashad Greene without Ifo Ekpre-Olomu? The physical Ekpre-Olomu might have been able to knock Greene off some of his typically perfect routes, which could have interfered with Greene’s timing with Winston. Without the consensus All-America, however, the Ducks may need to utitlize more zone coverage to slow Greene. That could open up passes underneath to tight end Nick O’Leary or tailback Dalvin Cook.

Oregon's Road to the National Championship

Oregon 62, South Dakota 13 (Aug. 30)

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Oregon cruised in its season opener, getting four touchdowns from Marcus Mariota and dropping 41 points in the first half.

Oregon 46, Michigan State 27 (Sept. 6)

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Michigan State scored 24 points in the second quarter to bring a 24-18 lead into halftime before Oregon ended the game on a 28-3 run. Mariota threw three touchdown passes.

Oregon 48, Wyoming 14 (Sept. 13)

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Mariota had four total touchdowns and went 19-of-23 through the air as the Ducks scored 41 unanswered points in the second and third quarters.

Oregon 38, Washington State 31 (Sept. 20)

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Ducks coach Mark Helfrich called Mariota's game "ridiculous" after the Oregon quarterback threw for 329 yards and five touchdowns in the team's first road test. Mariota also led the game-winning nine-play, 79-yard drive that ended in a six-yard touchdown pass to Keanon Lowe.

Arizona 31, Oregon 24 (Oct. 2)

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Oregon's only loss off the season came at the hands of Arizona, which upset the Ducks for the second straight season. Mariota caught a 26-yard touchdown pass on a halfback pass, but Oregon was unable to overcome the 24-14 lead Arizona brought into the fourth quarter.

Oregon 42, UCLA 30 (Oct. 11)

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Oregon rebounded from its only loss of the season by beating UCLA in the Rose Bowl. The Bruins made things a little interesting when they shrunk the Ducks' 42-10 lead to 42-30 with 2:47 remaining. Mariota scored four total touchdowns while Royce Freeman rushed for 121 yards and two scores.

Oregon 45, Washington 20 (Oct. 18)

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The Ducks won their 11th straight over the Huskies as Freeman rushed 29 times for 169 yards and four touchdowns.

Oregon 59, Cal 41 (Oct. 24)

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Mariota threw five touchdowns, and Byron Marshall and Dwayne Stanford each had 100-yard receiving games as the Ducks picked up another road win. Freeman rushed 22 times for 112 yards and two touchdowns.

Oregon 45, Stanford 16 (Nov. 1)

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Stanford had won two straight against Oregon coming into this season, but Mariota scored four total touchdowns as the Ducks pounced on the Cardinal early.

Oregon 51, Utah 27 (Nov. 8)

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The tide shifted early and dramatically as Oregon's Joe Walker pounced on the football after Utah's Kaelin Clay nonchalantly dropped it a yard before crossing the goal line. Walker returned the fumble 100 yards for a touchdown, tying the game at 7-7. It was the closest the Utes would come from that point on.

Oregon 44, Colorado 10 (Nov. 22)

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The Ducks had no trouble with the Buffaloes, taking a 27-point lead into halftime and outgaining Colorado 597-226 for the game. Mariota scored four total touchdowns.

Oregon 47, Oregon State (Nov. 29)

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The 118th playing of the Civil War was really no contest -- the Ducks scored 30 points before the Beavers got on the boards and Mariota totaled six touchdowns (four through the air).

Oregon 51, Arizona 13 (Dec. 5)

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Oregon gained vengeance on Arizona with a dominant outing in the Pac-12 championship, scoring 23 unanswered points before opening a 44-7 lead through three quarters. The Ducks outgained the Wildcats 627-224 with a nicely balanced attack (326 yards passing, 301 rushing).

Oregon 59, Florida State 20 (Jan. 1)

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After leading by just five at halftime, the Ducks forced four turnovers in the third quarter and ended the Rose Bowl on a 34-0 run to rout the Seminoles and reach the national championship. Mariota contributed 400 yards of offense and three touchdowns.

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X-factor

Florida State RB Dalvin Cook: Once Cook picked up the Seminoles’ protection schemes and gave coaches confidence to play him more, the true freshman from Miami changed the offense with breakaway runs and reliable hands out of the backfield. Cook was at his best when Florida State was losing: With his team behind, Cook averaged 9.6 yards a carry. He’s one of the biggest reasons Florida State has yet to trail at the end of a game this year. “Dalvin Cook is tremendous,” Winston said. “We get that guy the ball 40 times a game, he'd have Melvin Gordon numbers.”

• RICKMAN: After running into spotlight, Dalvin Cook is ready to lead

Statistically speaking

164: Florida State’s offensive line starting five has 164 combined career starts, but the Seminoles starting left tackle (true freshman Rod Johnson) has four. Oregon has allowed 14 sacks in eight games after allowing 12 in the two-game stretch (at Washington State, Arizona) that left tackle Fisher missed because of an injury.

Final analysis 

If the 'Noles start slow and Winston throws an early interception or two, the Ducks could capitalize in a way that the earlier teams on Florida State's schedule could not. Oregon is explosive enough offensively to put the game out of the reach of even one of the Seminoles' trademark comebacks. However, if Florida State can keep the game close into the second half, its ability to make critical plays late in tight games will be a huge asset.

The pick

Florida State 31, Oregon 27

Florida State's Road to the College Football Playoff

Florida State 37, Oklahoma State 31 (Aug. 30)

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In the first of what would be a season full of tight victories, the Seminoles capitalized on a fourth-quarter fumble by Cowboys quarterback J.W. Walsh to pull away for the win. Rashad Greene shines with 203 yards receiving.

Florida State 37, Citadel 12 (Sept. 6)

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The Seminoles raced to a 34-0 margin by the end of the third quarter in a comfortable nonconference victory. Quarterback Jameis Winston efficiently dissected the Bulldogs, completing 22-of-27 passes for 256 yards with two touchdowns.

Florida State 23, Clemson 17 OT (Sept. 20)

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While Winston watched from the sideline as a suspension for yelling an obscene phrase on campus, the Seminoles survived to overtime by forcing a C.J. Davidson fumble at the 14-yard line with under two minutes remaining. Florida State's defense came up clutch again in overtime, stuffing Clemson on fourth-and-one before Karlos Williams sealed the win with a 12-yard touchdown run.

Florida State 56, NC State 41 (Sept. 27)

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After spotting the Wolfpack a 17-point lead in the first quarter and a 38-28 advantage in the third quarter, Winston and the Seminoles offense rallied for four touchdowns in the final 20:06 to come back and pull away. Karlos Williams picked up 126 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.

Florida State 43, Wake Forest 3 (Oct. 4)

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The Seminoles defense posted its first truly dominant performance, holding the Demon Deacons to 126 yards of offense and forcing three turnovers. Linebacker Reggie Northrup outscored Wake Forest by returning a fumble 31 yards for a touchdown.

Florida State 38, Syracuse 20 (Oct. 11)

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Winston contributed one of his best outings of the season, completing 30-of-36 passes for 317 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. The nearly flawless performance helped the Seminoles jump out to a 31-6 lead by midway through the third quarter.

Florida State 31, Notre Dame 27 (Oct. 18)

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The Seminoles' undefeated streak seemed to be over, but an offensive pass interference penalty negated the Fighting Irish's game-winning touchdown pass. After trailing 17-10 at halftime, Winston kicked into high gear in the second half, completing 15-of-16 passes for 181 yards with a touchdown.

Florida State 42, Louisville 31 (Oct. 30)

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The Seminoles embarrassed the Cardinals' highly touted defense with 35 second-half points to erase a 24-7 deficit. Winston rebounded from a horrid three-interception start to pass for 401 yards and three touchdowns while redshirt freshman Dalvin Cook added 110 rushing yards on nine carries with two scores, including the go-ahead touchdowns with 3:46 left. Florida State's defense also chipped in, holding Louisville for 1-of-11 on third downs.

Florida State 34, Virginia 20 (Nov. 8)

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After falling behind at the end of the first quarter, the Seminoles used three second-quarter touchdowns to jump out to a comfortable lead they never relinquished. Greene hauled in 13 passes for 136 yards and a touchdown to lead the offense.

Florida State 30, Miami 26 (Nov. 15)

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Needing a late touchdown to pull the upset, the Hurricanes drove to the Florida State 43, but Jalen Ramsey intercepted Brad Kaaya's deep heave to lock up another win. The Seminoles overcame a 16-0 deficit thanks to Cook, who jumpstarted the offense with a 44-yard touchdown run and finished with 92 yards on seven carries with two scores.

Florida State 20, Boston College 17 (Nov. 22)

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The Eagles wasted their chance to grab a late lead when Alex Howell's 42-yard field goal drifted wide right. Winston methodically drove the Seminoles 66 yards to set up a game-winning 26-yard boot from Roberto Aguayo.

Florida State 24, Florida 19 (Nov. 29)

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Despite four interceptions from Winston, the Seminoles hung on to beat their rivals. Florida kicker Austin Hardin missed two go-ahead field goals in the second half, and quarterback Treon Harris failed to lead the Gators to a game-winning touchdown on their final drive.

Florida State 37, Georgia Tech 35 (Dec. 6)

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Winston rebounded from his dismal outing against Florida to throw for 309 yards and three touchdowns, and the Seminoles claimed the ACC title. Georgia Tech's triple-option attack churned up 331 yards on the ground but couldn't keep pace with an in-sync Florida State offense.