Which Games Featuring Group of Five Teams Are the Smartest Bets in Week 3?
The New Mexico State Aggies are 2-2 straight up and 4-0 against the spread in their last four games against the New Mexico Wolfpack. The Aggies will try to pull off another upset against the Wolfpack this Saturday night at home.
New Mexico State is a 5.5-point home underdog on the college football Week 3 odds at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Since 2005, the Aggies have exceeded four wins in a season only one time, doing so with a 7-6 SU record last season. The early returns on 2018 are not promising with an 0-3 SU and ATS start, but over the last four years the Aggies have consistently treated their rivalry game against New Mexico as the biggest of the year.
Three of the last four games in this head-to-head series have been decided by a field goal or less. New Mexico isn't exactly a world beater with a 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS record over its last nine games. Betting on the Aggies isn't a habit to get into, but we'll make an exception this week and take the 5.5 points.
Another worthwhile underdog to take this Saturday is the Troy Trojans +11.5 on the road against the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Comparing SU and ATS records may be like comparing apples and oranges when you consider the differences between the conferences these two teams play in, but it is still a helpful indicator of form; Troy is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS over its last nine games while Nebraska is 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS over its last eight.
Troy has a tendency to get up for big out-of-conference tests too, as indicated by its 24-21 win at LSU last season as 20.5-point underdogs. After getting crushed by a very good Boise State team 56-20 in their season opener, look for the Trojans to bounce back and make another out-of-conference statement and to at least cover the spread against the mediocre Cornhuskers.
Lastly, switching over to a favorite, take the UCF Knights as 14.5-point road favorites over the North Carolina Tar Heels.
The Knights are 15-0 SU and 9-5-1 ATS over their last 15 games, according to the OddsShark College Football Database, and have averaged 48.1 points per game over that stretch. UCF has emerged as one of the best non-power-conference teams in the nation and should have no trouble getting the job done against lowly North Carolina.
