Forde-Yard Dash: The Best Weekend of October Football Is Almost Here
Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (“Reqiuem for a Pylon Route” T-shirts sold separately in College Station):
MORE DASH: Oklahoma’s Free Fall | Heisman Race | Interim Cases
FIRST QUARTER
THE OCTOBER BLOCKBUSTER WEEKEND IS COMING
This week is why college football always wins, in spite of itself. No matter how much the people in charge try to screw it up, they can’t fully ruin it. No matter how greedy the power brokers are, how heedless they are with money, how much they push around the fans, how rudderless the entire enterprise is—the sport always delivers. It gives us weeks like this.
We are heading into one of the greatest October Saturdays in recent memory. Three matchups of undefeated teams. Two top-ten clashes. Major showdown games in every Power 5 conference. There are College Football Playoff implications. Conference championship implications. Heisman trophy implications. This is going to be big.
The settings: massive stadiums in Knoxville and Ann Arbor; up-by-their-bootstraps venues in Fort Worth and Salt Lake City; the only indoor venue in the Power 5 even gets a star turn. The schedule is set for a noon-to-midnight feast, covering three time zones and featuring teams from Upstate New York to Los Angeles. Schedule your family visit to the pumpkin patch for a different day.
For this upcoming October Saturday, we can shelve discussion of contract buyouts, realignment TV value and who is lying to whom. We can watch college football do what it always does: heal itself from all the self-inflicted wounds of the offseason. Let’s go. Here is a Dash breakdown of the games you cannot afford to miss:
Alabama-Tennessee (1). Time: 3:30 ET. Location: Neyland Stadium. Records: Alabama is 6-0, Tennessee is 5-0. Rankings: The Crimson Tide is No. 3 in the AP poll, the Volunteers are No. 6. Sunday Line: Alabama favored by 9.5.
Let’s just say this up front: the Volunteers should be favored. For the early line to favor ‘Bama by more than a touchdown is a nod to history, consistency and the assumption that Bryce Young will be 100% Saturday—but it doesn’t take into account which team has played better over the course of this season. The opportunity hasn’t been this ripe for Tennessee in the 21st century. The last time the Vols were undefeated going into the Alabama game was 1998, when they won their last national championship.
When Alabama and Tennessee met last October, the Tide won 52-24, largely due to a 28-point fourth quarter performance.
Brianna Paciorka/News Sentinel/USA TODAY NETWORK
Who has more to prove: Tennessee, clearly. Josh Heupel is fast-tracking the rebuilding job, but this is the game that will provide a measuring stick for whether Tennessee is truly back (even more than Georgia in November). The third Saturday in October has turned into an annual humiliation for the Vols, losing a staggering 15 straight—13 of them by 14 or more points. They’re oh-for-Saban since he arrived in Tuscaloosa. The home team badly needs a cigar party Saturday.
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Penn State-Michigan (2). Time: noon. Location: Michigan Stadium. Records: Penn State is 5-0, Michigan is 6-0. Rankings: The Wolverines are No. 5, the Nittany Lions are No. 10. Sunday line: Michigan favored by 5.5.
Penn State has one big advantage, coming off an open date and having additional rest and preparation while the Wolverines are coming off consecutive road games—and hoping for the best for running backs coach Mike Hart, who was treated for a reported seizure that occurred on the sideline during Saturday’s game at Indiana. But after a soft non-conference schedule, the Wolverines passed some tests in beating Iowa and Indiana by an average of 17 points. Not spectacular, but solid.
Who has more to prove: Penn State. This was the point in the schedule last year where the Nittany Lions collapsed, going from 5-0 to 7-6. They haven’t won the Big Ten East since 2016, whereas the Wolverines are the defending division and conference champions. Is Penn State ready to seriously challenge Ohio State and Michigan? This is the time to find out.
Oklahoma State-TCU (3). Time: 3:30. Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium. Records: Oklahoma State is 5-0, TCU is 5-0. Rankings: The Cowboys are No. 8, the Horned Frogs are No. 13. Sunday line: TCU favored by two.
The Big 12 makeover continues with this unexpected marquee game — the second straight for TCU, coming off a thrilling win at Kansas on Saturday. Oklahoma State has flown under radar this season, but it is tied with TCU for the top-scoring offense in the league at 46.4 points per game. Expect a shootout, with two very talented quarterbacks and receiving corps going at it.
Who has more to prove: TCU, still, despite hammering Oklahoma and winning the high-profile game over the Jayhawks. Oklahoma State played in the Big 12 title game last year, then won the Fiesta Bowl. Under first-year coach Sonny Dykes, TCU is emerging from a four-year hibernation at the end of the Gary Patterson Era.
Dykes took over at TCU in November of 2021 after spending five years as SMU’s coach.
Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports
USC-Utah (4). Time: 8 p.m. Location: Rice-Eccles Stadium. Records: USC is 6-0, Utah is 4-2. Rankings: The Trojans are No. 7, the Utes are No. 20. Sunday line: Utah is favored by 2.5.
This is another surprising line, given how thoroughly the Utes were beaten at UCLA and the fact that the Trojans are coming off their fifth double-digit victory in six games. Utah has given up more than 400 yards of offense in consecutive Pac-12 games for the first time since 2018. USC, while a little less potent in the passing game now than in the first three weeks, still possesses ample firepower to test that defense.
Who has more to prove: Actually, it’s USC. The Trojans have the ranking and the record, but they need to prove some staying power as a Pac-12 contender and a national top ten team. Utah won the league last year, and although its start is disappointing given preseason expectations, the program’s reputation is established. A USC win in Salt Lake, followed by an open date and three very winnable games, would make a closing rivalry stretch of UCLA and Notre Dame loom very large.
North Carolina State-Syracuse (5). Time: 3:30. Location: JMA Wireless Dome (it will always be the Carrier Dome to The Dash). Records: N.C. State is 5-1, Syracuse is 5-0. Rankings: The Wolfpack is No. 15, the Orange is No. 18. Sunday line: N.C. State favored by four.
The unexpected ACC Atlantic gauntlet continues, with the Wolfpack coming off a loss to Clemson and a two-point win over Florida State to now face the improbably unbeaten Orange. N.C. State quarterback Devin Leary was knocked out of the game against the Seminoles with a shoulder injury (coach Dave Doeren said X-rays were negative Saturday night, but an MRI will follow). Syracuse has the luxury of an open date and a walkover against Wagner on Oct. 1 leading into this game.
Who has more to prove: Syracuse, clearly. The Orange have had one winning season in the last eight, and their undefeated record is filled with empty calories. The only opponent they’ve beaten that has a winning record is Purdue, and that required a full-fledged Boilermaker penalty meltdown in the final minute. Starting with this one, every remaining game on the Syracuse schedule is losable. So if the Orange want to get to bowl eligibility, they better start now.
And a bonus ACC game: Clemson-Florida State (6). Time: 7:30. Location: Doak Campbell Stadium. Records: Clemson is 6-0, Florida State is 4-2. Rankings: The Tigers are No. 4, the Seminoles are unranked. Sunday line: Clemson favored by 6.5.
This is a throwback ACC rivalry game that has lost its luster in recent years, but is making a hint of a comeback with FSU at least respectable again. Clemson probably deserves more credit than it has gotten for consecutive wins over Wake Forest and North Carolina State, both of which are undefeated against the rest of their schedules so far. The Seminoles have been addicted to drama, playing thrillers against LSU, Louisville and North Carolina State (win, win, loss).
Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei has turned it around and helped lead the Tigers to a 6-0 season.
Winslow Townson/USA TODAY Sports
Who has more to prove: Florida State, of course. But Clemson is fighting for College Football Playoff respect, and its next two games might provide the only remaining opportunities to beat a quality opponent (FSU and at Notre Dame on Nov. 5).
FOUR FOR THE PLAYOFF
Each week, The Dash assumes the role of one-man College Football Playoff selection committee, handing down the bracket on stone tablets as if today were Selection Sunday. This week: some shakeups are in order.
Peach Bowl: Top seed Ohio State (7) vs. fourth seed Tennessee (8).
The Buckeyes (6-0) cruise into their open date unchallenged since the opener against Notre Dame, having blistered three straight Big Ten opponents by the combined score of 150-51. And they still haven’t been at full strength, with a number of injuries. The schedule hasn’t been great, but the team is. Next up for Ohio State: Iowa in Columbus on Oct. 22.
The Volunteers (5-0) had a statement win at LSU Saturday, routing the Tigers and demanding a ranking. So they slip into the bracket while Alabama and USC slide out. (Obviously, Alabama and Tennessee can settle this—and a lot else—on the field Saturday.) Hendon Hooker continues to have a season worthy of Heisman consideration, stretching his streak of games without an interception to eight. Next up for Tennessee: see above.
Fiesta Bowl: Second seed Georgia (9) vs. third seed Clemson (10).
The Bulldogs (6-0) scuffled around with Auburn for a while before getting untracked, burying an opponent for the first time in several weeks. Georgia’s 292 rushing yards were its most in a game since 2020. Next up for Georgia: Vanderbilt on Saturday.
The Tigers (6-0) crash the bracket after a reconsideration of their quality wins over Wake Forest and North Carolina State. The Clemson offense continues to re-establish itself after last year’s low ebb—the Tigers have scored at least 30 in every game this season, after doing so just once in their first seven in 2021. Next up for Clemson: at Florida State Saturday (also see above).
Also considered: Alabama, Michigan, Penn State, TCU, Oklahoma State, UCLA, USC, Mississippi, Wake Forest.
MORE DASH: Oklahoma’s Free Fall | Heisman Race | Interim Cases
