Forde-Yard Dash: How Each Remaining Contender Can Get to the Playoff
Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (weird punts sold separately in Champaign, Pittsburgh and Lexington):
MORE DASH: Bama, Clemson Stumble | Coach of the Year | Fed-Up Fans
Second Quarter
Paths to the Playoff
The College Football Playoff herd was thinned a bit Saturday. In terms of outright elimination, maybe not much other than the dismissal of Illinois (two losses to teams with losing records). But Alabama and Clemson both moved into the unlikely realm, and some other paths were cleared and improved. A Dash rundown of how the contenders can make the top four by Selection Sunday:
Georgia. The Bulldogs simply need to handle business on the road the next two weeks, at Mississippi State and Kentucky, then beat Georgia Tech to end the regular season. That’s it. Win those three games to reach 12–0 and they’re in the field. A loss in the SEC championship game—unless it were some kind of 50–0 nightmare—wouldn’t be a Playoff killer. Win the SEC title game to finish 13–0 and they’re the clear No. 1 seed. Georgia has the two best wins of anyone so far, thrashing Oregon and handling Tennessee with ease. A semifinal game in Atlanta would be the reward for running the table.
Big Ten champion, provided it’s either Ohio State or Michigan (11). The Nov. 26 collision in the Horseshoe has been looming on the horizon all season, and it’s slowly coming into sharper focus. Provided neither the Buckeyes nor the Wolverines trip up before then—Ohio State at Maryland and Illinois at Michigan on Nov. 19 provide a slim chance—that rivalry game will decide a lot. Winner comes close to locking up a bid and takes a big step toward the No. 2 seed. There doesn’t figure to be much to gain in terms of schedule strength from the Big Ten championship game, because the West Division is a mess. But there would be a lot to lose if an upset occurs in Indianapolis.
Will the Wolverines’ résumé be strong enough for the CFP if they lose a game?
Vincent Carchietta/USA TODAY Sports
TCU. Nobody stands to benefit more from the weekend results than the Horned Frogs (9–0), who saw three teams ranked ahead of them in the CFP top 25 lose. Last week the selection committee had one-loss Alabama ahead of TCU; will it keep one-loss Tennessee in front of the Frogs this week? Regardless, TCU controls its own destiny—win out, and it’ll be in the field. But winning out won’t be easy, with games at Texas and Baylor the next two weeks, a regular-season finale against Iowa State and a presumptive Big 12 championship game appearance. If the Frogs finish 12–1, they could join the potential scrum for the No. 3 and 4 seeds.
Tennessee (12) currently leads the pack of one-loss teams. At 8–1 with a road loss to Georgia and wins over Alabama (home) and LSU (away), the body of work to date is good. And with a smaller margin of defeat against the Bulldogs than Oregon, Tennessee should be ahead of the Ducks. The Volunteers also did what some others on this list did not, playing a Power 5 opponent on the road during the nonconference (a 34–27 win over Pittsburgh in overtime). If Tennessee handles business down the stretch (Missouri, at South Carolina, at Vanderbilt), that 11–1 résumé could be enough to earn a bid.
Big Ten East Division runner-up (13). It might depend on how the game plays out, but an 11–1 loser of the Michigan–Ohio State game could be slotted right behind Tennessee in the one-loss hierarchy. Or maybe right in front. For résumé purposes, the Buckeyes were helped by Notre Dame’s thumping Clemson Saturday—if the 6–3 Fighting Irish keep winning, that season-opening Ohio State victory gains currency. The Wolverines don’t have much hope for secondhand résumé enhancement, given a nonconference schedule that could still come back to haunt them. (The committee already sent one clear message about that by slotting Michigan fifth in the first rankings.)
Oregon (14). The Ducks (8–1) have been impressive since the opening debacle against Georgia, scoring more than 40 points in eight straight games and being challenged only once (at Washington State). Whether a 46-point loss can be mitigated by a trio of explanations—willingness to play Georgia in Atlanta, new head coach, new quarterback—remains to be seen. But if Oregon finishes 12–1, with wins over UCLA, Washington, Utah and potentially USC in the Pac-12 title game, that would be pretty strong. (One win that hasn’t panned out was the blowout of BYU, which has slumped to 5–5.)
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USC (15). The Trojans (8–1) don’t have much in the way of quality wins yet, but those opportunities are coming—UCLA on Nov. 19, Notre Dame on Nov. 26, and potentially a Pac-12 title game against Oregon. Their lone loss is nothing to be ashamed of—a one-pointer at Utah, in which USC never trailed until the final minute. This team is an offensive powerhouse and a defensive flophouse, as evidenced by giving up 21 points in the fourth quarter to California and nearly coughing up an easy victory. That produced this quote from defensive coordinator Alex Grinch, per Adam Grosbard of the Orange County Register: “You’re 10 weeks into the season. Which, as soon as I say that, you want to vomit at some of the issues we have 10 weeks into the season. So I don’t know if some of these things we can get fixed in 48 hours and 72 hours.”
Mississippi (16). The Rebels (8–1) have a big opportunity Saturday in Oxford—putting a stake through the Crimson Tide, keeping themselves in the SEC West mix and keeping Playoff hopes alive. Even if Ole Miss doesn’t win the West—right now it would lose the tiebreaker with LSU, which beat the Rebels in October—it could be another 11–1 SEC team to consider. However, the nonconference schedule doesn’t amount to much (Troy, Central Arkansas, Georgia Tech and Tulsa) and their SEC crossover opponents were Vanderbilt and Kentucky. The Rebels likely would need some help elsewhere to move up the one-loss pecking order. If LSU stumbles and they get into the SEC championship game and upset Georgia, that would be a different story.
UCLA (17). The Bruins (8–1) have good wins over Utah and Washington, and their one loss was at Oregon (although it was not terribly competitive). UCLA has the big opportunity looming with USC Nov. 19 and, if it can finish 11–1, a Pac-12 championship slot would be likely. The nonconference schedule is weak (Bowling Green, Alabama State, South Alabama) but that’s largely Michigan’s fault for bailing on a home-and-home series with the Bruins.
The Pac-12 will go a long way toward sorting itself out Nov. 19 with the USC-UCLA and Utah-Oregon games, and it would be good for the embattled league to have one or more Playoff contenders coming out of that weekend. (The league office, for obvious reasons, would prefer that Oregon remain Playoff-viable.)
LSU (18). The Tigers are seeking to make Playoff history much the way they made BCS history in 2007—by sliding in through the back door with two losses. Fifteen years ago, they needed other teams to lose and clear the way. This time, perhaps not—thanks to having a four-team field as opposed to just two in the BCS era. If LSU wins out in the regular season (at Arkansas, UAB, at Texas A&M) and then slays the Georgia dragon in the SEC title game, that could break the two-loss Playoff barrier. Beating Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi, with a one-point defeat in the season opener against a solid Florida State and a loss to Tennessee, is a résumé worth arguing over.
A 12–1 ACC champion (19). It doesn’t bode well for the league that a largely disappointing Notre Dame team has beaten both of its current one-loss teams, Clemson and North Carolina, by double digits. That might be a disqualifier for the conference, as the Fighting Irish have done a fine job thus far fulfilling the Agent of Chaos role. But if Clemson and UNC both keep winning and produce a compelling championship game, there is one interesting (if unlikely) scenario. Suppose LSU captures the SEC title at 11–2; that record would include a loss to Florida State, a team Clemson defeated. If the two-loss Tigers from the bayou are a Playoff team, what about the one-loss Tigers from the upstate who have a win over an opponent that beat LSU?
Alabama. Still a detectable Playoff pulse, however thin. Obviously, Alabama needs to beat Ole Miss on Saturday and win out, then hope for an LSU face-plant against Arkansas and A&M. That would get the Crimson Tide back into the SEC title game, whereupon they would need to beat Georgia. Having already lost to two SEC teams that aren’t as good as the Bulldogs, it’s a lot to ask. But it’s not like Bama doesn’t have the talent, not to mention a history of torturing Georgia in Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Team Meteorite (20). If you have enough time in the day, you can drum up a scenario of outlandish events that could propel two-loss Illinois back into the picture (with wins Michigan Nov. 19 and Ohio State in December). Or two-loss Utah (with wins over Oregon and either of the L.A. schools in a Pac-12 title game). Or maybe even one-loss Tulane (beat UCF and Cincinnati twice, to go along with a win over Kansas State). All those scenarios would require a rash of upsets elsewhere, and perhaps an asteroid crashing to Earth and disrupting the season.
MORE DASH: Bama, Clemson Stumble | Coach of the Year | Fed-Up Fans
