Ranking (and Picking) This Weekend’s Spiciest Rivalry Games
Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football (goose eggs sold separately at Boston College, which was shut out for the first time in six years Saturday by Notre Dame):
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Fourth Quarter
Ranking the Rivalries
With the entire third quarter of this week’s Dash devoted to the monster showdown between Ohio State and Michigan, it’s time to take a look at the rest of the week’s rivalry games and put them in context. From the most relevant to the grudge games that have slipped, here is a full Dash list, with picks:
Habanero hot (31): Teams in the College Football Playoff hunt that could legitimately be upset.
Notre Dame-USC. The Trojans (10–1) need to win to keep Playoff hopes alive, and could vault into the top four in the rankings next week. The Fighting Irish (8–3) are on a five-game winning streak to salvage the season. Both fan bases are rather pleased with themselves at all times. The line: USC by five. Dash pick: Notre Dame 35, USC 34. Fight On/Fight Off.
Clemson-South Carolina. The Tigers (10–1) need to win to stay on the Playoff periphery. The Gamecocks (7–4) are coming off an upset detonation of Tennessee and bring their best record into this game in five years. South Carolina hasn’t beaten Clemson since 2013, and their fans carry a white-hot dislike of all things Dabo. The line: Clemson by 14.5. Dash pick: Clemson 27, South Carolina 23. Swinney remains the Cock Commander in this rivalry.
Could Spencer Rattler and South Carolina pull off another massive upset?
Jeff Blake/USA TODAY Sports
Spicy up front, but not much lasting heat (32): College Football Playoff implications, but the games might not be too compelling.
Texas A&M-LSU. The Tigers (9–2) have already clinched the SEC West but are trying to stay playoff-viable with a win here and an upset of Georgia in the SEC championship game. The Aggies (4–7) are the nation’s biggest disaster. The line: LSU by 10. Dash pick: LSU 21, Texas A&M 7. The season cannot end soon enough in College Station.
Georgia-Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs (11–0) simply need to avoid an all-time face plant here to lock up a playoff bid. The Yellow Jackets (5–6) have showed a few flickers of life under interim coach Brent Key and are striving to be bowl eligible. The line: Georgia by 36. Dash pick: Georgia 38, Georgia Tech 3. Stetson Bennett’s last game between the hedges is a blowout.
Got some zing (33): Games that can impact who wins a division and/or advances to a conference title game but do not involve the Big Ten West.
Oregon-Oregon State. The Ducks (9–2) can play for the Pac-12 championship with a win. The Beavers (8–3) would love nothing more than to derail that dream. Their combined 17 wins heading into this game are the most in a decade. The line: Oregon by three. Dash pick: Oregon 29, Oregon State 24.
Kansas State-Kansas. The Wildcats (8–3) advance to the Big 12 championship game with a win. The Jayhawks (6–5) can clinch their first winning season since 2008, and their revival gives this rivalry its first burst of energy in a long time. The line: Kansas State by 12. Dash pick: Kansas State 41, Kansas 27. The Jayhawks’ run defense has collapsed, and the Wildcats will be perfectly happy to exploit that.
Washington-Washington State. The Huskies (9–2) will know by kickoff of this #Pac12AfterDark game whether they still have a shot at the league title game, depending whether Oregon won or lost in Corvallis. The Cougars (7–4) would love to finish the regular season with four straight wins and some Apple Cup glory. The line: Washington by two. Dash pick: Washington State 21, Washington 19. If the weather turns this into a slopfest on The Palouse—which is still guesswork at this point—that’s a bad development for the nation’s leading passer Michael Penix and the Huskies.
Central Florida-South Florida. The Knights (8–3) make the American Athletic Conference title game with a win and a Houston loss. But if both UCF and the Cougars win, the tiebreaker gets complicated and the result comes down to CFP rankings placement of the Knights and the Tulane-Cincinnati loser. The Bulls (1–10) are awful. The line: UCF by 19.5. Dash pick: UCF 58, USF 35. Bet the over.
Tasty but potentially poisonous (34): Every rivalry game involving a Big Ten West team, as the division staggers toward crowning a champion.
Nebraska-Iowa. The Hawkeyes (7–4) win the West with a victory. The Cornhuskers (3–8 are just trying to make a memory amid the misery. The line: Iowa by 10.5. Dash pick: Iowa 2, Nebraska 0. It’s the only fitting way for the Hawkeyes to clinch the division.
Purdue-Indiana. The Boilermakers (7–4) can win the division with a victory here and an Iowa loss Friday in Iowa City. The Hoosiers (4–7) showed some pride last week in rallying to win at Michigan State and might bring similar spunk into this game. The line: Purdue by 10.5. Dash pick: Purdue 27, Indiana 24.
Illinois-Northwestern. The Illini (7–4) have lost three straight but still have a chance if both Iowa and Purdue choke it away. The Wildcats (1–10) still haven’t won in the United States since Oct. 16, 2021, with their lone victory this season coming over Nebraska in Ireland. The line: Illinois by 14. Dash pick: Illinois 17, Northwestern 0.
Minnesota-Wisconsin. Neither team can win the division, but they do play for a large ax. The Badgers (6–5) have been all over the map under interim coach Jim Leonhard—some weeks impressive, some weeks awful. The Gophers (7–4) have returned some drama to the rivalry under P.J. Fleck after years of being pummeled. The line: Wisconsin by 3.5. Dash pick: Wisconsin 20, Minnesota 16. It will be painful to watch.
Tangy (35): Both teams have winning records and have mutual in-state disdain for one another.
Mississippi-Mississippi State. The Rebels (8–3) spit the bit last week in a dismal loss at Arkansas. The Bulldogs (7–4) are trying to get Mike Leach his first win in the rivalry. Some are wondering whether this is Lane Kiffin’s last game in the rivalry. It’s the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving night, prepare for mayhem. The line: Mississippi by 2.5. Dash pick: Mississippi State 28, Mississippi 27.
Rumors are swirling about Lane Kiffin’s future in the midst of an impressive season at Ole Miss, but Mississippi State could wreck the Rebels if they’re distracted by all the noise.
Rogelio V. Solis/AP
Florida-Florida State. The Gators (6–5) killed their late-season momentum with an upset loss at Vanderbilt, while the Seminoles (8–3) come in riding a four-game streak of blowout wins. It’s not Bowden vs. Spurrier, but the game has a little bit of juice back. The line: Florida State by 9.5. Dash pick: Florida State 31, Florida 20.
North Carolina-North Carolina State. The Tar Heels (9–2) threw a bowl of soup on their season with a loss to Georgia Tech last week, but still would like to get quarterback Drake Maye to New York as a Heisman Trophy finalist. The Wolfpack (7–4) have flailed since the season-ending injury to star QB Devin Leary. The line: North Carolina by 6.5. Dash pick: North Carolina 34, North Carolina State 24.
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Louisville-Kentucky. The Cardinals (7–4) have probably saved coach Scott Satterfield’s job by winning five of their last six—but if they want to make absolutely sure, beating Kentucky for the first time since Lamar Jackson was in uniform would do it. The Wildcats (6–5) have been a major disappointment but still boosted coach Mark Stoops’s pay to $9 million a year going forward, because college sports. The line: Kentucky by 3.5. Dash pick: Louisville 24, Kentucky 22.
Surprising bite (36): You weren’t expecting much when you bit into this one, but it packed a wallop.
UCLA-California. Will this be the last meeting in Berkeley for two schools that have been playing each other since 1933? That may depend on the UC Board of Regents, which delayed making any decision last week about UCLA’s attempt to ditch the Pac-12 for the Big Ten—they’ve scheduled another meeting for December. Regardless how that turns out, this rivalry has taken on an added edge for the Golden Bears (4–7) and Bruins (8–3). The line: UCLA by 10. Dash pick: Cal 28, UCLA 26. After beating Stanford last week, Cal can settle all family business by stunning a Bruins team that could be flat after seeing their Playoff and conference hopes go sideways the last two games.
Faint piquancy (37): One team needs to win to gain bowl eligibility.
Auburn-Alabama. Oh, how the Iron Bowl has fallen. The Tigers (5–6) are terrible and the Crimson Tide (9–2) is out of playoff contention. Their combined eight losses are the most going into this game since 2012. The line: Alabama by 21.5. Dash pick: Alabama 35, Auburn 7. The Tigers could be walking into a buzzsaw of frustrated ‘Bama players.
Arkansas-Missouri. The Tigers (5–6) are trying to continue their run as the most average program in America, looking to go .500 in the regular season for the fourth straight year. The Razorbacks (6–5) ended a five-year losing streak to Mizzou in 2021 and are trying to beat the Tigers back-to-back for the first time. The line: Arkansas by three. Dash pick: Arkansas 21, Missouri 17.
Tennessee-Vanderbilt. This could actually be interesting. The Volunteers (9–2) are hurting emotionally and physically after losing their playoff chances and quarterback Hendon Hooker at South Carolina. The Commodores (5–6) have gotten up off the mat and won two straight SEC games for the first time since 2018. Now they’re playing for a bowl bid. The line: Tennessee by 14. Dash pick: Vanderbilt 24, Tennessee 23. Shock the world.
Bland (38): Rivalries of geographic and conference convenience that otherwise bring little heat to the table.
Utah-Colorado. The Utes (8–3) might not even need to buckle their chin straps against the Buffaloes (1–10), who are the worst Power 5 team in the nation. The line: Utah by 29.5. Dash pick: Utah 42, Colorado 7.
Rutgers-Maryland. The Terrapins (6–5) can clinch their first winning season since 2014. The Scarlet Knights (4–7) can end on a good note. The Big Ten’s Eastern Frontier continues to add little. The line: Maryland by 14. Dash pick: Maryland 24, Rutgers 17.
Ketchup (39): Blech.
Arizona State-Arizona. The Sun Devils (3–8) have been a mess all season. The Wildcats (4–7) have made some progress this season. That’s about all there is to say about this edition of the Territorial Cup. The line: Arizona by four. Dash pick: Arizona 37, Arizona State 27.
Nevada-UNLV. They do play for one of the best trophies in college sports, the Fremont Cannon (40). But that doesn’t make it a good game. The Wolf Pack (2–9) have lost nine straight games, while the Rebels (4–7) have lost six straight. The line: UNLV by 12. Dash pick: UNLV 40, Nevada 24.
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