Alabama Climbs to No. 1 Spot in First March Madness Bracket Preview
The NCAA tournament selection committee gave fans a preview of what brackets could look like come Selection Sunday by revealing its top 16 teams Saturday. While plenty can change between now and the time brackets are set, this gives an early sense of where teams stand and can give bracketologists some hints as to what the selection committee values most. Alabama came in as the No. 1 overall seed the same week the Crimson Tide climbed to No. 1 in the AP Poll for the first time in 20 years.
The committee’s top 16 came in as follows:
- Alabama
- Houston
- Purdue
- Kansas
- Texas
- Arizona
- Baylor
- UCLA
- Tennessee
- Virginia
- Iowa State
- Kansas State
- Indiana
- Marquette
- Gonzaga
- Xavier
Alabama Earns Top Spot
This wasn’t a big surprise, considering Purdue’s recent struggles and the Crimson Tide’s head-to-head win on the road at Houston. But the Tide coming in at No. 1 despite losing this week against Tennessee is sign that Alabama has some breathing room in its chase for the No. 1 overall seed on Selection Sunday.
Alabama’s résumé is somewhat unimpeachable: They have arguably the best win in the country, zero losses outside of the top quadrant and strong metrics across the board. And with that head-to-head win over Houston, I think it would take multiple losses and Houston winning out for the Tide not to stay ahead of the Cougars. Alabama’s greatest long-term top spot threat may actually be Kansas, though the Jayhawks would likely have to win out to get into that conversation.
Houston Jumps Purdue
Efficiency-based metrics love Houston, with the Cougars sitting as the No. 1 team in KenPom entering Saturday. But playing in the AAC means Houston doesn’t get as many opportunities to prove itself against elite competition, and that led to the Cougars being underseeded at No. 5 last year despite top-10 metrics.
So far, the committee seems less worried about the Cougars’ slightly weaker schedule. Even with a Quad 3 home loss to Temple on its résumé, Houston came in as the No. 2 overall team in the committee’s rankings, jumping above a Purdue team that has spent much of the season as the No. 1 team in the AP Poll but coming into today losers of three of their last four games. Houston’s standing as the second overall seed should mean they’ll stay as a No. 1 seed through Selection Sunday unless they take multiple losses, which is great news for Kelvin Sampson’s team. Committee chair Chris Reynolds pointed out Houston’s undefeated road record and win at Virginia as major selling points.
Lots of Big 12 Love
Five of the committee’s top 12 teams came from the loaded Big 12, meaning half of the conference is currently projected as a No. 3 seed or better. While it wasn’t a surprise to see Kansas (thanks to its 12 Quad 1 wins) as a No. 1 seed or Texas right behind them as the fifth overall team, the committee did not punish Kansas State or Iowa State for recent losing skids as much as I had anticipated. Kansas State was ranked outside the top 16 in Sports Illustrated’s top 16 projection but landed at No. 12 today despite losing five of its last seven games.
Playing as many games against highly-ranked opponents as Big 12 teams do means plenty of chances to bolster a résumé and very few games that can actually hurt your standing in the eyes of the committee. Teams like Iowa State and Kansas State could fall more if they can’t turn their seasons around, but they’ve built up so much equity already that a top-four seed seems more likely than not come Selection Sunday.
Tennessee Can’t Crack Top 2 Seeds
Despite having three wins against top-5 teams in the committee’s current rankings, Tennessee came in at No. 9 (the top No. 3 seed) in today’s reveal. Why? The Vols’ losses are rough when compared to other top-tier teams. Three of Tennessee’s six losses are against teams not currently in SI’s projected field, and others (like at home against Kentucky and Missouri) also don’t look great.
The Vols will be a fascinating team to watch the committee deal with on Selection Sunday, especially if they can finish strong in the regular season. Falling to No. 9 today makes me skeptical Tennessee has a path to a No. 1 seed even with its wins over Alabama, Kansas and Texas. They’d almost certainly have to win out to make a real case for the top line.
Marquette, Xavier Top Big East Selections
Marquette at No. 14 and Xavier at No. 16 were the two Big East teams that made the top 16. Four Big East squads were realistically in the mix, as UConn and Creighton also had cases for selection and are actually the two highest-ranked teams in the league based on the NCAA’s NET rankings.
But while metrics love the Huskies and Bluejays, midseason stumbles by both squads kept them out of today’s top 16. Creighton lost six straight games from late November to mid-December, while UConn dropped six of eight early in Big East play. Xavier and Marquette have been more consistent and have slightly better records in Quad 1 games, and the committee clearly valued that. Xavier’s two head-to-head wins over UConn may have helped as a tiebreaker for that last spot in the rankings.
