Purdue Gets Selection Committee Nod as Men’s Top Seed Over Houston
The humans prefer the Purdue Boilermakers and UConn Huskies. The computers are united in support of the Houston Cougars. Those are your three top men’s college basketball teams a month ahead of Selection Sunday.
The NCAA selection committee revealed its top 16 tournament seeds Saturday. Its overall No. 1 seed is the Boilermakers, followed on the top seed line by (in order) UConn, Houston and the Arizona Wildcats. Committee chair Charles McClelland said on CBS Saturday that all 12 members had the same four teams in the same order, a rare moment of unanimity.
That runs slightly counter to the AP and coaches’ poll voters, who have UConn No. 1. And it runs more counter to the NCAA’s own NET ratings and the metrics of Ken Pomeroy, Bart Torvik and others, all of which rank the Cougars on top.
However you slice it, those teams have distanced themselves from the rest of the pack. Should they hold those positions, there are clear geographic paths to the Final Four for each: Purdue would go through Indianapolis and Detroit in the Midwest; UConn would go through Brooklyn and Boston in the East; and Houston likely would go through Omaha or Memphis and then Dallas in the South.
Purdue center Zach Edey and the Boilermakers earned the selection committee’s top overall seed in its projection ahead of Selection Sunday.
Trevor Ruszkowski/USA TODAY Sports
For Purdue, the task is both simple and monumental: perform as well in the postseason as it does in the regular season. The Boilermakers are on their way to a third straight season with at least 25 victories in the regular season and a ninth season under Matt Painter with a top-16 NCAA seeding. But Painter has never gotten the program to the Final Four and has compiled a ghastly track record of massive March face-plants—most recently and infamously last year, as a No. 1 seed losing to the No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson Knights.
UConn is, in some ways, the anti-Purdue—the Huskies show up strong at tournament time. Last year, the Huskies won their fifth national title since 1999. Despite significant losses from that team, coach Dan Hurley has impressively reloaded. Heading into a showdown with the Marquette Golden Eagles on Saturday, UConn had the longest active winning streak in the nation at 13 games.
For Houston, the transition from the American Athletic Conference to the Big 12 has been remarkably smooth. The Cougars entered play Saturday tied for first in America’s deepest league with the Iowa State Cyclones at 8–3, 21–3 overall. Houston is the top-ranked defensive squad in most metrics.
An argument could be waged over the fourth No. 1 seed between Arizona and the best teams from the Atlantic Coast Conference (North Carolina Tar Heels) or from the Southeastern Conference (Tennessee Volunteers, Alabama Crimson Tide or Auburn Tigers). But the Wildcats’ tough nonconference schedule, which includes victories over the Crimson Tide, Duke Blue Devils, Michigan State Spartans and Wisconsin Badgers, makes up for the uninspiring competition in the Pac-12.
There are a couple of instances of the committee members liking name brands more than the computers do. North Carolina was fifth in the top 16 despite being no higher than 10th in three major metrics rankings. The Kansas Jayhawks was eighth despite ranking 13th with Torvik, 16th in the NET and 20th with Pomeroy. Heading into Saturday’s game at the Oklahoma Sooners, the Jayhawks have lost four straight road games and five of six in Big 12 play.
The team the committee does not like nearly as much as the computers is Auburn. The committee ranked the Tigers 13th, while Pomeroy and Torvik have them fourth and the NET places them sixth. Auburn is undefeated at home this season heading into a Saturday night showdown with the Kentucky Wildcats.
In terms of conference representation, the Big 12 unsurprisingly has the most teams in the top 16 with four (Houston, Kansas, Iowa State and the Baylor Bears). The Big Ten (Purdue, the Illinois Fighting Illini and Wisconsin) and SEC (Tennessee, Alabama and Auburn) are next with three. The Big East (UConn, Marquette) and ACC (UNC, Duke) have two apiece while the Mountain West (San Diego State Aztecs) and Pac-12 (Arizona) have one.
The committee’s top 16 is, of course, subject to change over the final three weeks of the regular season and then conference tournament action. But maybe not much change. In the previous six years that the NCAA has done an early reveal (subtracting 2020), every No. 1 seed in mid-February remained in the top 16 come mid-March. Twenty-three of the 24 No. 2 seeds stayed in the top 16, 18 of the 24 No. 3s and 15 of the 24 No. 4s.
So if your favorite team was in the top 16 on Saturday, chances are good that it will remain there. And if it wasn’t, don’t be too disappointed. Last year’s Final Four had just one team from the top 16 seeds (No. 4 seed UConn) along with two No. 5s (San Diego State and the Miami Hurricanes) and a No. 9 (Florida Atlantic Owls). And this year is shaping up to be just as wild.
