Arkansas Needs to See KJ Jefferson Run Less

Razorback success over the next calendar year and the next few years depend on it, including the Liberty Bowl, SEC

Author:
Kent Smith
Updated:
Dec 27, 2022 1:44 PM EST
Original:
Dec 26, 2022

In this story:

Arkansas Razorbacks

FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – It's been a season of personal conflict for Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson.

NFL scouts want to see him settle in more in the pocket and show he can work through progressions so he can prove he can evaluate the field at NFL speed and accuracy.

Arkansas fans want to win, and the way they see that happening is by Jefferson making the quick decision to run and get guaranteed yards instead of waiting to see if a tightly covered receiver is eventually going to come open and whether he will catch it if he does.

NFL scouts want to see whether Jefferson has the accuracy to fit the ball into tight windows where receivers would be considered open in the NFL, but too covered to risk it usually in college.

Fans want Jefferson to run the ball unless someone is wide open. No need to risk an interception on a bobbled ball because the defender was too close when there's another classic Jefferson highlight reel of him running the ball to be had.

102922-KJ Jefferson-Auburn-John Reed-1 — Auburn Tigers linebacker Owen Pappoe (0) sacks Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback KJ Jefferson (1) on the opening play at Jordan-Hare Stadium. (John Reed – USA TODAY Sports)

NFL scouts want to see Jefferson slide and take care of his body before he bangs himself up too much to be worth a late pick to take on as a project. They'd love it even more if he did all of the above at a high level and forced them to take him third round or higher.

Arkansas fans want to see him fight for that extra yard. So long as Jefferson isn't diving into or over anything, his body is a weapon to be utilized to the fullest extent because it puts fear in opponents and brings energy to the team.

101522-KJ Jefferson-BYU-Gabriel Mayberry-3-2 — Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson spent the last two months of the season injured or playing hurt. (Nelson Chenault – USA TODAY Sports)

Pull up the headlines from this past season. From the first week of October all the way through to the end of the season, two full months, the headlines were about how Jefferson will miss or might miss the game and that Arkansas can't win without him.

Sandwiched in between Sam Pittman injury updates on Jefferson stuck on repeat is a headline that reads "Must See: KJ Jefferson Won't Go Down."

But apparently he should have because all the headlines after that are about how he's out or they're trying to find a way to force Jefferson into the game.

When Jefferson tried to cut down on running the ball to spend more time in the pocket, fans complained. However, now that the full season can be looked at from the top down, cutting Jefferson's rushes had a positive effect.

In four games, Jefferson restrained himself, keeping his carries down to 8-10 attempts. Arkansas won all four.

The Razorbacks only won two games where their NFL linebacker sized quarterback ran 16 or more times, both of which were to open the season when his body was fully rested and healthy.

Jefferson's three highest quarterback ratings came when he hung in the pocket and gave his receivers a chance. He also only threw one of his four interceptions while being more committed to the pocket.

Three of Jefferson's four highest yards per carry came during games where he ran the ball less because linebackers had to hold back in coverage longer.

In a dominating win over Ole Miss, Jefferson averaged 5.9 yards on eight carries, his fewest of the year.

Games with carries of 10 or less also include two of his three longest carries with runs of 25 and 23 against Auburn and Ole Miss respectively.

Only a 26 yard run in what should have been a win over Texas A&M was longer. Ironically, it was Jefferson running the ball instead of handing it off or passing it that resulted in the Aggies possibly landing the play of the year while handing Arkansas a loss.

With Jefferson coming back, there are three things that should take place.

1. He should get to work on positioning himself for the NFL draft the best way possible. Consistently putting quarterbacks in the NFL should be a priority for this program as it is a necessary recruiting tool desperately needed for stabilization of the program.

It should also be noted that three of Jefferson's four biggest passing games from a yards standpoint were when he ran the ball less. That includes his top two of 385 against Missouri State and 367 against BYU.

Three of his four most prolific games for passing touchdowns came in those games, including the top two with five against BYU and three against Ole Miss.

Jefferson only took four sacks during those games and had his season high rushing touchdown total against Auburn as part of that set.

Every number says Jefferson should run less and get the time to develop into an NFL quarterback.

2. No one should ever have to write that Arkansas can't win if the quarterback goes down ever again. It's unfair for Jefferson to put his health and future at risk because of poor staff evaluations or inability to develop the talent on the roster.

If Jacolby Criswell and Malachi Singleton don't look like they're going to be ready to get the job done, then this staff needs to run out and grab Braylon Braxton, defensive signee Jaylon Braxton's older brother, out of the transfer portal.

The kid is a stud who played way above his station at Tulsa and only ended up there because he didn't have enough 7-on-7 and camp exposure. If this offensive staff can't keep the train rolling long enough to let Jefferson properly heal with that level of talent in the quarterback room, then it would be time to search the transfer portal for offensive coaches.

3. Raheim "Rocket" Sanders, AJ Green, and Rashad Dubinion are three of the best backs Arkansas has been able to put on the field at the same time. Only the trio of Darren McFadden, Felix Jones and Peyton Hillis surpass it.

The extra touches make a huge difference in the offense. Jefferson's passing success theoretically should have meant less production out of the backfield, but, instead, it maximized production.

Sanders had touches of 24-242 against Missouri State, 16-179 against BYU, 17-177 against Auburn and 30-261 against Ole Miss. As a whole, the trio had 28-250, 41-331, 32-213, and 42-317 respectively.

There are total offenses not putting up those numbers, much less running back groups while their quarterback has huge days also.

So, if Jefferson spends the Liberty Bowl and all of next season hanging in the pocket trying to give his receivers a chance while working on his NFL skills, give the call-in shows and message boards a break.

Even if it weren't damaging to his body and the Razorbacks' hopes of putting another quarterback in the league, it's not what's best for winning.

And winning is something this staff and Jefferson need to do a lot of next season.