Baylor's harsh reality: Defense could take them out of Big 12 contention
The Baylor Bears have an offense worthy of making the College Football Playoffs. They're led by Sawyer Robertson, who is playing out of his mind through the first two weeks of the season, and have weapons all over the field. If Baylor can have an average defense for the rest of the year, they will be the favorites to win the Big 12 this season, but unfortunately, it looks like it will be the same story as last year.
In 2024, Baylor had the 18th-best offense in the country, averaging 33.5 points per game. They were firing on all cylinders, especially in their final seven games of the year, but were unable to make it to the Big 12 title game. Their defense surrendered 28.7 points per game that year, which ranked 82nd in the country, and in all but one of their losses, they gave up over 34 points.
It feels like the 2025 season could go the same way for Baylor. They've already lost a game due to their defense's inability to get a stop, and they would be 0-2 if it weren't for some late-game heroics from the Bears' offense to erase a 14-point deficit in the final 10 minutes to beat SMU in overtime. Through two weeks, Baylor's defense is giving up 41.5 points per game (119th), but their offense is scoring 36.0 points per game (30th).
The worst part about it is that there isn't any one specific problem that's hurting them. They've struggled in pretty much every facet of the game. In week one, Auburn destroyed them on the ground, rushing for 307 yards and four touchdowns. In week two, SMU burnt them through the air with big plays. Tackling has also been an issue throughout the season, with the team having 31 missed tackles through two games.
The reality is, if the Bears don't turn things around defensively, they're not going to have a shot at winning the Big 12 and making the College Football Playoffs. This feels very 2023 LSU-esque. Jayden Daniels led the No. 1 scoring offense in the country, but because the defense couldn't stop a nosebleed, the Tigers didn't even make it to the SEC Championship game.
If Baylor wants to accomplish their goal of winning the Big 12 and making the CFP, Dave Aranda's defense needs to make a complete 180. There are too many good offenses in the Big 12 for them to be one of the worst defenses in the nation. Robertson and Co. can score a lot of points, but eventually the defense is going to need to make some plays. And so far, they haven't proven they can do so consistently.
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Luke is a writer for the Baylor Bears On SI. He's an LSU graduate and previously covered the Tigers for two years. He also covers the New Orleans Saints and Formula 1. Luke's passion for sports and storytelling led him to become a sports writer.