Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: At No. 4 Houston Cougars

CINCINNATI — Cincinnati basketball (17-11, 7-10) is set for a matchup against its biggest nemesis of the Wes Miller Era, Houston (24-4, 16-1).

The Cougars are 8-0 against Cincinnati since Miller took over and represent the last guaranteed chance at a Quad 1 win for Cincinnati's teetering NCAA Tournament reśumé.

UC enters the game ranked 46th in the NET and 53rd on KenPom, while Houston is 3rd in the NET and on KenPom. Bart Torvik gives the Bearcats a 6% chance of winning the game, projecting a final score of 69-54 Houston.

Cincinnati likely needs to get to 21 wins at least when combining the rest of the regular season and Big 12 Tournament. Upsetting Houston would go a long way toward their case for NCAA Tournament conclusion and be the best win of the Wes Miller era.

Offensive Storyline: Don't Get Bogged Down

Houston is arguably the best defensive team in the country once again this season, ranking third nationally in adjusted defensive rating, with the lowest points per game allowed in Big 12 play (59.4).

They play at a snail's pace and force opponents to play even slower, ranking 361st out of 364 teams in adjusted tempo. Cincinnati isn't much faster at 294th nationally and they have to try any way possible to speed this game up and score in transition. Once the Cougars set up that half-court wall, it's curtains nearly every possession.

Unlike past years, Houston has stayed pretty healthy all season and rolls out eight nasty bulldogs that all love to to defend in its conference play rotation. Forward Joseph Tugler (5.7 points, 5.8 rebounds) isn't scary on offense, but he's one of, if not the best defender in the country. Tugler ranks first nationally with a monstrous 86.3 defensive rating.

Cincinnati has to run more than they usually do and try to out-volume the Cougars. Teams rarely get above 22 made shots against Houston and that's the biggest correlation in their four losses (all four saw the winner make at least 22 shots). Any open shot is a good shot, especially from deep (all those losses also saw the other team shoot at least 23 threes).

UC getting Simas Lukošius back re-ignited the deep ball on Tuesday and they have to carry that over to pull off the best win this decade. Houston has been a little leaky defending the three-ball, letting Big 12 teams hit 33% this season (seventh in Big 12). They are also willing to give that up as opposed to rim attacks (44.3% of opponents' shots come from deep).

Let them fly, and pray.

Defensive Storyline: Disrupt The Sharpshooters, Keep Rebounding Pace

Houston is not only a great defensive and rebounding team once again this season, but the improved health has been massive for their offensive flow. They are eighth nationally in adjusted offensive rating in large part due to a quadruplet of scoring talents that are all shooting 36%-plus from deep on volume.

Lead guard LJ Cryer (14.6 points, 2.2 rebounds) leads that group and he can slam the door shut alone if he taps into a hot streak he's found consistently in 2024-25. Cryer is hitting 41.7% from deep in conference play (41.5% overall to lead the Big 12) and has the pressure taken off him this season by fellow backcourt scorcher Milos Uzan (11.1 points, 4.6 assists, 44.6% from deep in Big 12 play).

Cincinnati has been a poor three-point defense all of conference play (35.3% allowed, 14th in Big 12). That continuing will make things supremely tough on the road.

They get fed plenty of second-chance shots by veteran forward J'Whan Roberts (11.4 points, 6.4 rebounds) and he's a big reason why they lead all Big 12 teams in conference play with 10.7 offensive rebounds per game. Cincinnati can't get dominated on the boards like they have too often in the past two months, or they just simply won't have enough shots on their end to win this contest.

Turnovers won't be a spam button for the Bearcats, Houston owns the best turnover mark in the Big 12 (8.4 giveaways per game). Cincinnati has to want it more than Houston on the glass and think quickly getting the ball up the floor to avoid the consistent bog downs Houston's defense mines.

Cincinnati feels one offensive star short of being able to break through against a team they've played tight recently.

Prediction: 64-62 Houston

Season Prediction Record: 23-5

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