Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: V. Baylor Bears

UC enters a closely projected matchup against the Bears.

Jan 7, 2025; Waco, Texas, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats guard Day Day Thomas (1) scores a three-point basket against Baylor Bears guard VJ Edgecombe (7) during the first half at Paul and Alejandra Foster Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images / Chris Jones-Imagn Images

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bearcats (16-11, 6-10) can add more juice to their fledgling NCAA Tournament hopes with a win over Baylor at home on Tuesday night. They face off against the Bears at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

Cincinnati got ripped apart by Baylor 68-48 on Jan. 7 and has another chance at revenge here against a team that just lost to the conference's worst team over the weekend. Baylor dropped that contest 76-74 to Colorado.

UC enters the game ranked 44th in the NET and 52nd on KenPom, while Baylor is 30th in the NET and 30th on KenPom. Bart Torvik gives the Bearcats a 55% chance to win the game with a projected final score of 69-67.

“I am thrilled with the win and proud of the guys," UC head coach Wes Miller noted about Saturday's win over TCU. "I thought the way we started both halves was a key for us tonight. I thought that was the most active we were defensively all night and the sharpest we were offensively to start those halves. I think that it is really important to talk a lot about how we started the game and how we started the second half. When you win in February in the Big 12, it is a good feeling and just finding a way to win is great.

"That's what matters most, and that's the part I'm excited about. Obviously, we had a rough start in the first half of league play, but we have won four of six now. That's something in this league that is good and there are a lot of good teams that haven't won four of six, so I'm proud of that. Now we have another great opportunity in here on Tuesday night against Baylor.” 

Offensive Storyline: Roll Over TCU Execution

Cincinnati has plenty to build on from its strong ball movement and paint attacks against TCU. The offense looked a lot more fluid in its second game without Simas Lukošius (shoulder), having those extra days to adjust and get more aggressive in the paint was a clear winning formula.

Now, they get to face one of the shakiest paint defenses in the country and an all-around mediocre to-bad unit from the Bears. Jizzle James was hyper-efficient in the paint on Saturday, as was Dillon Mitchell, who notched his second double-double in conference play. Cincinnati has to continue swinging the ball well on offense and finding cracks in the paint that should be there Tuesday night.

Baylor is one of the five worst paint defenses in the country, allowing a putrid 70.2% on close twos and 89.3% on dunks. Aziz Bandaogo is near the top of the national dunk rankings and should be able to flush home more of those. Cincinnati gets over 43% of its points from those two areas and if they spam it near 55-60% on Tuesday, they should be in a great position to win.

Baylor's interior defense took a massive hit with 6-10, 230-pound center Josh Ojianwuna's injury earlier this month and it's only made their short lineup more vulnerable (6-7 leading-scorer Norchad Omier is the only rotation player over 6-6). Cincinnati can win the glass battle much easier this time around (lost 28-25 on the boards in the first game), get more second-chance opportunities, and overwhelm the Bears like they have more than a handful of times on the glass this season.

The three-pointer may still be hard to come by if Lukošius can't suit up, but UC's offense can still thrive if they hammer the paint and don't settle for the inefficient two-point jumper (Baylor allowing just 36.1% on long twos this season).

Defensive Storyline: Defend The Three, Don't Foul

Cincinnati has had some rough three-point luck on defense this conference slate and they need it to flip back to the mean on Tuesday (34.6% allowed from deep in conference play, 12th).

Baylor thrives on the triple, led by top freshman V.J. Edgecombe (14.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, 38.2% from deep in conference play). Cincinnati's perimeter defense was stellar against TCU, with crisp man-to-man rotations and a heady ability not to foul while keeping their men in front.

That has to continue on Tuesday night against a team that takes 40.1% of its shots from outside and thrives at the free-throw line. Baylor is averaging 20 free throw attempts per game in conference play (sixth in Big 12) and hitting 79.1% of those shots (second in Big 12). That's a brutal thing to lean on against Cincinnati, who doesn't let teams get to the line.

TCU used that heavily in its three-game win streak and only took four free throws on Saturday. Cincinnati is allowing just 14.3 free throw attempts per game in conference play (first in the league).

Keep Baylor around 10 or below and UC will continue to keep its season alive.

Prediction: 71-69 Bearcats

Season Prediction Record: 22-5

Bookmark Bearcats Talk for the latest news, breakdowns, and so much more. Check out our YouTube page as well, starting with the video below.

You May Also Like:

Watch: Highlights From Cincinnati's Road Bout Against Iowa State, With Jizzle James Making UC Scoring History

Three Man Weave: Cincinnati Falls On The Road Against Iowa State

Cincinnati Cracks Top Five Schools For Three-Star 2026 Cornerback Kasmir Hicks

Cincinnati Football Adds Fifth Commitment in 2026 Class From Alabama Safety Xavier Starks

Wes Miller Updates Connor Hickman's Health, Previews Massive Iowa State Battle

Watch: Bearcats Continue Winter Workouts With Snowy Session at Nippert Stadium

'We Are Going To That Tournament' - Jizzle James' Ascendence Fueled by Dad's Motivation, Film Study, and More

Watch: Highlights From Cincinnati's 85-75 Win Over Utah At Home

Three Man Weave: Cincinnati Notches First Three-Game Big 12 Winning Streak With Triumph Over Utah

Watch: Matthew McDoom Sheds Light on His Career Prior to Cincinnati Transfer

Look: Cincinnati Bearcats Among Top Teams at Beating Weak Opponents, Struggling Against Stronger Teams

Cincinnati Football Gets Late Three-Star Commitment to 2025 Recruiting Class From Taizaun Burns

Wes Miller Highlights UC Coaching Legend Bob Huggins' Pregame Visit, Unique Practice Tweak Entering UCF Win

Three Man Weave: Cincinnati Explodes on Offense Against UCF to Earn First Quad 1 Win of Season

Recruiting Roundup: Cincinnati Offers Four-Star 2027 Offensive Tackle Ben Congdon, Bevy of Talents

Look: Former UC Football Star Luke Kandra Invited to 2025 NFL Combine

-----

Be sure to keep it locked on Bearcats Talk all the time!

Follow Bearcats Talk on Twitter: @BearcatsTalk

Like Bearcats Talk on Facebook: Bearcats Talk