Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: V. Kansas State Wildcats

UC dropped the first contest against KSU this season 70-67.

Dec 30, 2024; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats guard Day Day Thomas (1) drives against Kansas State Wildcats guard Coleman Hawkins (33) during the first half at Bramlage Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images / Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats basketball team (17-12, 7-11) aims for revenge against Kansas State (14-15, 8-10) at home on Wednesday night. The two sides tip off at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

The Wildcats started Cincinnati's conference action off on the wrong foot a couple of months ago and now UC has to capture this game to stay on one of the weakest NCAA Tournament bubbles of the decade. They'll likely face a KSU team without top player Coleman Hawkins (knee) after he's missed multiple games recently.

Cincinnati enters this game ranked 40th in the NET and 50th on KenPom, while KSU is 82nd in the NET and 66th on KenPom. Bart Torvik gives Cincinnati a 70% chance to win with a projected score of 70-65.

UC is 8-2 all-time against the Wildcats and they've won all four home matchups against them.

Offensive Storyline: Attack The Glass With Close Shots

The absence of Hawkins has put major pressure on KSU's ability to defend the rim and magnified that issue in recent games. The Wildcats are a terrible rebounding team, giving up 33.4 per game in conference play (13th in Big 12), including 10.1 offensive rebounds (15th).

Cincinnati has to carry over its strong rebounding keys from the loss to Houston and overwhelm a much smaller Kansas State team on the glass. Without Hawkins, KSU's leading scorer David N'Guessan (13.1 points, 7.1 rebounds) is the only impactful rotation player over 6-7.

The Wildcats own the 50th-best adjusted defensive rating on KenPom, but that's been with Hawkins (team-best 101.7 defensive rating in conference play) playing a majority of the season. They aren't close to that good without him and are giving up 56.8% shooting on twos over the past five games, to just 24.4% from outside.

Getting to the rim is imperative to a win on Wednesday. KSU's allowed just a 34.7% hit rate on long twos and 32.1% from deep throughout the season. They are a great jump-shooting defense, and much worse around the rim (59.5% allowed on close twos). 

Big 12 teams haven't had much trouble implementing this strategy, especially in KSU road matchups, where they are 2-9 away from home this season. Teams are making 19.1 twos per game against them (15th in Big 12), to just 6.3 threes (third in Big 12). Utilize the extra day of rest and get downhill on Senior Night to find the easiest path to victory.

Defensive Storyline: Contain N'Guessan

Hawkins scorched Cincinnati for 20 points and 10 rebounds in the KSU victory on Dec. 30. If he can't go or is hampered in his first game back, N'Guessan is really the only major offensive scoring factor to contain.

The 6-9 bruising forward makes his hay around the rim with the Big 12's best shooting percentage this season (62.4%). He is a fluid paint presence that can dice up lesser opponents, but it's hard to see how he dominates Aziz Bandaogo. Especially given the lack of other scoring weapons for KSU.

Lead guard Dug McDaniel is a strong passer (30.1% assists rate, fourth-best in Big 12) but doesn't complement that with efficiency as a scorer (37.8% shooting in conference play, 26.5% from deep). Timely traps and ball pressure on McDaniel could force him into 4-5 big turnovers for the Bearcats.

Cincinnati doesn't foul much and has gotten tighter with its three-point defense over the past few games. As long as they don't let the sharpshooting Brendan Hausen (10.4 points, 38.1% shooting on seven attempts from deep in conference play) cash five or more threes on his own, KSU shouldn't have enough answers on this end of the floor.

A win over the Wildcats vaults Cincinnati into the Big 12 Tournament's 11th seed, one spot away from a clear path to three tournament wins. That would put them at 22 wins overall and make a strong case to crack through a really weak NCAA Tournament bubble.

Prediction: 76-65 Bearcats

Season Prediction Record: 24-5

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