NCAA Tournament Tracker: Cincinnati Back in The Bubble Mix Ahead of Toughest Opponent This Decade

Cincinnati has never beaten Houston in the Wes Miller era.

Feb 27, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Cougars guard L.J. Cryer (4) shoots the ball during the second half against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Fertitta Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images / Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

CINCINNATI — UC basketball has prompted another look at the NCAA Tournament Tracker after winning five of its past seven games, highlighted by Tuesday's 69-67 win over Baylor.

Cincinnati is back on the bubble, appearing on one official Bracket Matrix projection as of this writing out of 116 (latest projections update later on Feb. 26). Bart Torvik currently gives Cincinnati a 27.7% chance to make the dance, while ESPN has adjusted its model recently and now has UC getting into the tournament 35% of the time.

"I think the confidence is high," Star UC guard Jizzle James said on Tuesday. "We’re just stacking games, stacking days in practice, and it leads to wins on the court. We’re glad to see it all paying off and we're having fun. We’re having fun playing basketball as a team and seeing everybody get the love they deserve. We’re showing everybody like we belong here."

There is still plenty of work to be done, with their final confirmed big win opportunity up next against No. 4 Houston on the road. The thin margins between Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins aren't helping Cincinnati.

They had two Q1 victories entering the day, but they are now 1-9 on that front after Baylor moved from 30th in the NET rankings to just outside that threshold at No. 31.

Cincinnati needs them to likely finish at least 2-1 down the stretch to have multiple Q1 wins, along with more winning by No. 28 BYU. Or they could go and shock the world as likely double-digit betting underdogs and beat No. 4 Houston.

It's eerily fitting that the toughest opponent of the Wes Miller era (0-8 against Houston in his tenure) could be the difference between dancing or not in 2025. A 3-0 finish should make them a lock to get in, while 2-1 with a deep conference tournament run (three wins or more) should get the job done as well.

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