Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: V. TCU Horned Frogs

CINCINNATI — The Bearcats (15-11, 5-10) have a matchup against TCU (15-11, 8-7) at home on Saturday at noon ET on ESPN2. Cincinnati has to win out this regular season or win the Big 12 Tournament to crack its first bid into the NCAA Tournament this decade.

Bouncing back against the Horned Frogs would be a good way to wash away a two-game losing streak with all eyes on key guard Simas Lukošius (shoulder) and his health following a return to offensive malaise without him in Wednesday's 62-59 loss to West Virginia.

Cincinnati enters the game ranked 47th in the NET and 54th on KenPom, while TCU is 72nd in the NET and 82nd on KenPom. Bart Torvik gives the Bearcats a 71% chance to win with a projected score of 66-61 UC.

UC is 6-1 against the Horned Frogs since 1949.

Offensive Storyline: Attack The Rim

Cincinnati is living and dying by the midrange jumper too much right now and they have a clear path to victory by spamming drives and getting downhill against an otherwise strong defensive team in TCU (28th in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom).

Jizzle James has taken just 58 shots at the rim this season and he's shooting 65.5% on those shots compared to 44.5% on all other twos. He's obviously Cincinnati's best player, but could stand to get even more efficient with his team-high 27.5% usage rate. Fatigue at this point in the season could be a hindrance for those more taxing rim looks, but it's by far the best way to score on TCU.

TCU has just one rotation player over 6-6 in 6-11 center Ernest Udeh (team-best 95 defensive rating, 6.9 points, 1.3 blocks), and it would pay big dividends to attack him and try to spark foul trouble. TCU allows 60.1% shooting on close twos and 95% shooting on dunk attempts. Those are juicy numbers to attack compared to just 41.6% on all other two-point shots and 33.6% from deep (eighth in Big 12 play).

Now, all of this will be much harder to attack inside if Simas Lukošius is not out there to get up three-point shots but also draw defensive attention away from the rim. Cincinnati has to get more efficient in this game against an opponent that allows just 0.984 points per possession (65th nationally) and plays at a slow pace (220th in adjusted tempo).

James and Day Day Thomas attacking the rim consistently, while kicking out for open jumpshots could be a nice strategy against the worst assist defense in the Big 12 (17.9 assists allowed per game).

Defensive Storylines: Force Jumpers

TCU is an abysmal offensive outfit, ranking 182nd nationally in offensive rating while sporting the second-worst scoring average in the Big 12 (65.1 points per game). If they aren't getting to the free throw line, it's nearly impossible for them to score efficiently (18.7 free throw attempts per game in Big 12 play, eighth-best).

They have one player shooting over 34% from deep in lead scoring guard Noah Reynolds (12.9 points, 3.2 assists) and he's also one of two players averaging more than 8.5 points per game. It would be a disaster if Cincinnati allowed more than 70 points on Saturday afternoon.

The Horned Frogs shoot a terrible 34.8% on long twos and the same rough-looking mark from three at 30.7% (334th nationally). Cincinnati can will its home crowd for defensive energy and use its top matchup advantage in this game to break TCU's three-game win streak.

The Horned Frogs are taking a whopping 24.7 free throws per game over this three-game win streak, but Cincinnati is only allowing 15 free throw attempts per game in conference play. That's the best mark in the Big 12.

Don't commit a litany of fouls and Cincinnati can get back in the win column.

Prediction: 65-62 Bearcats

Season Prediction Record: 21-5

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