Preview: Cincinnati Welcomes Memphis Into Town For Throwback Night

The Bearcats likely need to win out if they want to snag an at-large NCAA Tournament bid.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Feb 14, 2022 12:39 PM EST

CINCINNATI — The Cincinnati Bearcats (16-8, 6-5) quest for a berth in the 2022 NCAA Tournament will get a boost or final nail in the coffin when they face the Memphis Tigers (14-8, 8-4) on Tuesday night.

The Tigers have been up and down all season but still represent a Q2 opportunity for Cincinnati. It's one of the team's few remaining chances for a Q1/Q2 win down the stretch of conference play. Houston and SMU represent a pair of those opportunities to close the regular season.

UC not only can't afford a loss on Tuesday, but they likely need to win their final seven games to cement a spot in the NCAA Tournament. That stretch also happens to be their toughest in conference play so far.

Cincinnati comes into the contest ranked 81st in KenPom, while Memphis is 39th. ESPN's matchup predictor has Memphis winning 52.2% of the time.

Only one major thing has changed for the Tigers since the Jan. 9 meeting against Cincinnati. Star freshman Emoni Bates is out indefinitely due to a back injury after scoring 12 points, seven rebounds, and six assists against UC in the first meeting.

Bates was crucial to the Tigers' 87-point display against Cincinnati, one of just six games this season where the Bearcats allowed 70-plus points. Cincinnati will have to slow down that high-powered offense a little bit more this time around.

In conference play, Memphis is leading the AAC in points (75.7), FG% (46.7%), two-point FGs (20.5), and assists (16.9). They are also 74th nationally in effective FG% on the season (53%). Thursday is a matchup of KenPom's 62nd-best team in offensive efficiency (Memphis) against the 37th-best team in defensive efficiency (Cincinnati).

The most difficult part of stopping this offense is there is no main weapon. Head coach Penny Hardaway has done a nice job of building an unselfish culture on offense. It's even more impressive considering Memphis has used 14 different starting lineups in 22 games this season, the most in the nation.

Memphis moves the ball well, and it's led to a strong offense with five different players averaging at least 2.5 assists.

If I had to label the Tigers engine—its veteran guard Landers Nolley (10.9 points, 3.8 rebounds in conference)—who leads the team with 3.9 assists per game in AAC play. The 6-foot-7 junior is a versatile combo guard who operates and passes from all three levels of the floor.

Tyler Harris (11.6 points per game in conference) and Jalen Duran (team-high 11.9 points, 8.4 rebounds) are often on the receiving end of those passes. The two are strong scorers and do it in completely different ways.

The former is a flamethrower from outside shooting 43.3% on the season (first in AAC) on 4.4 attempts per game. That total has shot up to 5.8 attempts per game in AAC play. Harris is one of the most efficient players in the conference. Memphis has a 124.7 offensive rating when Harris is on the floor—the most of any AAC player with a usage rate over 20%.

Duren is 15th in the AAC among all players in offensive rating (110.3) and is living up to his preseason hype. The bruising interior presence is slated as a top-five pick in the 2022 NBA Draft for a reason. At 6-foot-11, 250 pounds, Duren is a bull in the China shop down low.

The matchup between Duran and the combination of Abdul Ado/Hayden Koval/Viktor Lakhin will play a big role in deciding the winner on Tuesday night. The Tulsa Golden Hurricane just outscored Cincinnati 44-26 in the paint on Saturday night, and interior defense has been a problem over the past two weeks.

The stud freshman won't make UC's path to interior offense any easier on the other end. Duren is one of the best shot-blockers in the country, leading the AAC with a 10.36% block rate, one spot ahead of Ado at 9.38%. That figures to be quite the battle between a vaunted veteran and a hotshot freshman.

Cincinnati must find a way to cash in on its layup opportunities more in this game. Misses at the cup have doomed them over this inconsistent stretch, and shooting a decent percentage from the field is crucial against an elite rebounding team like Memphis.

The Tigers lead the AAC in offensive rebounds (13) and total rebounds per game (39.7). Duren drives that with his team-leading 8.4 boards in conference play, but there are no weak links in pursuit of misses on this rotation. Every player 1-9 averages at least 3.2 rebounds in conference play.

On the other hand, Memphis is still a wildly undisciplined ball-handling team—giving up 15.6 turnovers per game in the AAC. That's down from their 18-plus per game in non-conference, but it's still a weakness Cincinnati's guards and Ado (team-leading 3.11% steal rate, 12th in AAC) need to take advantage of.

If Cincinnati can shoot better inside, keep Memphis off of the boards, and create extra possessions with turnovers, then they'll have a great shot at the upset on throwback night.

"The Cats" tip-off against Memphis at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

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