Preview Paw Prints: SMU Mustangs Game Two

Cincinnati narrowly beat SMU earlier this season.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Mar 3, 2023 12:58 PM EST

CINCINNATI — The 2022-23 AAC regular season comes to a close on Sunday as Cincinnati (19-11, 10-7) battles SMU (10-20, 5-12) at home on Senior Day.

The Bearcats narrowly beat SMU 54-52 on the road in January during one of the team's highest turnover outputs this season (17 turnovers).

Senior Landers Nolley II led the way with 16 points in that game, but he won't be leading any Senior Day festivities. Only David DeJulius, Kalu Ezikpe, and Rob Phinisee are walking on Sunday. Those are the only three players who won't have eligibility college eligibility left after this season.

Cincinnati is a big favorite, with ESPN's Matchup Predictor picking them to win 92.8% of the time.

The Bearcats have owned this series outside of the 2016-17 season—winning 11 of the past 12 matchups. That lone loss happened in this opposite scenario last season when UC fell 76-71 at SMU to close the 2021-22 regular season.

Here's our preview of Cincinnati's final AAC matchup against SMU (barring a few massive upsets in the AAC Tournament).

Seeding Scenarios

*skip this section if Tulane Beats East Carolina on March 2

As of this writing, Cincinnati still has a little something to play for on Sunday, but that could end quickly based on Friday's results. UC is locked into the 4-5 seed game right now after Temple made a rematch with UC extremely likely by beating UCF 57-55 on Thursday night.

The Bearcats and Owls are highly likely to face each other in Texas next Friday afternoon on the ESPN family of networks.

Temple's win means Cincinnati can only move up to the No. 3 seed in a very unlikely scenario. Temple plays Tulane in the final game of the season, and even if they beat the Green Wave, they'll both be tied at 11-7 (assuming tulane beats ECU).

Cincinnati will enter that tie with a win over SMU, but Tulane gets the three seed by tiebreaker because they are the only one of the three that beat Memphis this year. The Green Wave are highly likely to earn an 11th win.

They are favored by double digits at home against East Carolina on Friday night.

The only way UC might not face Temple in the AAC tourney is if UC loses to SMU or Tulane loses at home against ECU and against Temple on Sunday. The latter scenario would trigger a two-way tie between UC/Temple at 11-7. UC wins that tie on common conference opponents' tiebreaker because they beat Wichita State, and Temple fell to the Shockers in their lone matchup.

The three seed would then belong to UC. If UC loses on Sunday and Temple wins—Cincinnati faces Tulane (with a loss to ECU) in the 4-5 matchup.

All of this is voided with a Tulane win over ECU. Cincinnati would either be the four or five seed at that point (win against SMU = four seed, loss against SMU = five seed).

Last Bit Of Home Cooking

Three UC careers start to wrap up on Sunday, none more impactful than David DeJulius (14.6 Pts, 2.2 Reb, 5.2 Ast). The graduate guard has blossomed into one of the country's best playmakers this season and has done a lot of his damage at Fifth Third Arena.

He's scored over 1,000 points in his UC career alone, 252 of those happened in Clifton this season. Despite likely never playing postseason hoops beyond the conference tourney, DeJulius should be viewed positively in UC history.

DDJ was one of the guys who stayed, one of the first guys to buy into Wes Miller's, all while putting words to action in the community with his reading program announced before this season. On and off the court, DeJulius has defined what a Bearcat is supposed to be. Oh, and he's on a nation-leading 15-game streak of 5-plus assists (5.2 APG ranks third in AAC).

His steady playmaking hand has been crucial as UC tried to break into the bubble ranks throughout the past few months. This season has been heavily hampered by injury. Don't look to DeJulius for those issues though.

The guard's started every Bearcats' basketball game over the past two seasons. DeJulius defined many of the good parts of a weird, disappointing transition period for the program.

DDJ may never get his March Moment, but Cincinnati's heartbeat has never thumped louder as he and the Bearcats try to pull off a surprise run next week.

Musty Mustangs

SMU and Tulsa represent easily the two worst teams in the AAC. The Mustangs have lost four of their past five games and boast a horrific defense.

They don't rank inside the top four among AAC teams in any major traditional defensive stats. With low marks in FG% allowed (47.4%, 10th in AAC), and points allowed (78.3, ninth in AAC).

Cincinnati already shut down SMU's top offensive threat in guard Zhuric Phelps (17.4 Pts, 3.8 Reb, 3.1 Ast). He went 5-of-18 from the field back in January with 2 turnovers. Still, he added five steals and impacted the game all the same.

Cincinnati has to take care of the ball, especially backcourt players matched up with Phelps. The sneaky guard leads the AAC with 2.3 steals per game (16th nationally). Turnovers are one of the only defensive staples SMU can execute consistently. They rank 116th nationally in opponent turnover rate (18.7%).

UC ranks 27th in turnovers per possession, creating an interesting strength-on-strength matchup. His backcourt running mate Zach Nutall (13.4 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 2.8 Ast) is a great steal artist as well (1.1 per game, 19th in AAC).

Cincinnati should have no trouble with SMU as long as they don't give the Mustangs a bunch of free possessions like last weekend.

Catch the game on Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Make sure you bookmark All Bearcats for the latest news, exclusive interviews, film breakdowns and so much more.

You May Also Like the following:

Three Man Weave: Cincinnati's Comeback Falls Short In 76-73 Loss To Memphis

Look: Cincinnati Athletics Practice Bubble Deflated For Final Time

Daniel Jeremiah On Ivan Pace Jr.: 'One Of The Best Off-Ball Blitzing Linebackers That I Have Seen'

Look: UC Football Announces Kickoff Time For 2023 Spring Game

NFL Network Draft Analyst Daniel Jeremiah Intrigued By Josh Whyle, Tre Tucker's Potential

Chris Johnson on 40-Yard Dash Record: Tyler Scott 'Has A Chance To Break It' At 2023 NFL Combine

PFF Picks Ivan Pace Jr. As The Top Linebacker To Watch At 2023 NFL Combine

UC Basketball Stars Of The Game: Four Double-Digit scorers Will Bearcats To Huge 88-83 Win Over Temple