Preview: Cincinnati Travels to Houston in Hopes of Avoiding Four-Game Losing Streak

The Bearcats have lost four straight games to the Cougars by a combined 110 points.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Feb 28, 2022 9:46 AM EST

CINCINNATI — A Texas swing pops up at the wrong time for the Cincinnati men's basketball team. The Cincinnati Bearcats (17-12, 7-9) close the regular season on the road in the lone star state for two games this week. The Houston Cougars (24-4, 13-2) crushed Cincinnati 80-58 the first time around and now face a Bearcats team that's lost six of its past eight games and three in a row.

If there was ever a perfect time to tap back into the 5-0 start Cincinnati pulled off to begin Wes Miller's tenure, it's right now. The Bearcats need some kind of momentum going into the AAC Tournament. Losing five straight games in back-to-back seasons would be a tough pill to swallow.

Don't hold your breath for a win against Houston. Kelvin Sampson's program is the AAC standard. Houston is ranked sixth in KenPom, while Cincinnati (100th) is in the triple digits for the first time since the 2020-21 final rankings. ESPN's matchup predictor has Houston winning 97.8% of the time.

The Cougars are a masterfully balanced team that's not only overcome the loss of its top two backcourt pieces but is thriving without them. Houston plays at a slow pace (319th), but they communicate as one unit and are extremely balanced. They rank 11th in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency.

Energy is the name of the game for Houston—who sport four players averaging double-figures in conference scoring and rank 47th nationally in effective field goal percentage (53.4%). On the flip side, they smother opposing jump shooters (43.3 eFG%, fourth nationally), and their on-ball defense melts ballhandlers like 1,000 suns (21.7% forced TO rate, 35th).

Mix in the fourth-highest offensive rebound rate in the country (37.4%), and it's no wonder that this team hasn't slipped outside the top-10 of the NET rankings all season. According to Evan Miya, Houston's best five-man lineup ranks 53rd among all lineups of that variety this season, and the program owns three of the five best five-man lineups in the AAC.

It's no surprise that it's Houston's normal starting five that they've rolled with most of the season: Josh Carlton / Kyler Edwards / Taze Moore / Jamal Shead / Fabian White Jr.

Breaking news: Houston's five leading scorers are the same five guys mentioned above. Sampson has slimmed his rotation essentially to six players—with Reggie Chaney and J'Wan Roberts combining to be the seventh man.

Fabian White (14.1 points in conference, 6.1 rebounds, team-high two blocks) is the hottest of that bunch and a player who already scorched Cincinnati for 21 points in their first meeting. The dude is a bully in the most respectful way possible. White feeds on energetic play inside and capitalizes on his stamina. The 6-foot-8, 225-pound bruiser brought the pain to Cincinnati like he has all season, oh, and he's sixth in the AAC in three-point percentage (39.2% on 3.5 attempts).

White defines efficiency. He is fourth in the conference with a 56.7% eFG mark, and he boasts the highest offensive rating of any AAC player (119.7). Not far behind him is his frontcourt running mate Josh Carlton (117.9)—who also has a case to be the Efficiency King.

I mentioned in our preview of the first contest that Carlton's Player Efficiency Rating was a few points higher than the current NBA leader. His mark has dropped since then, but Carlton (13.8 points, team-high 8.1 rebounds) is still posting a ridiculous 32.3 PER in conference action.

That is right in line with current NBA MVP candidates Nikola Jokic (NBA-best 32.56 PER) and Joel Embiid (32.25 PER). At 6-foot-11, 240 pounds, Carlton has cracked the code on how to best use his frame as a senior to clean up misses and extend possessions. He is by far the best offensive rebounder in the conference, totaling a 16.6% offensive rebound rate on the season—4.6% higher than UCF's Cheikh Mbacke Diong in second place.

The guard who keeps all the chaos on schedule is Kyler Edwards (team-high 14.2 points in conference, 4.2 assists, 6.1 rebounds). The senior is top-15 in AAC play in ORating (109, 15th), assist rate (15.4%, 15th), TO rate (12.8%, eighth), and is 21st in eFG% (47.8%).

Edwards typically takes on the role of breaking down defenses and hunting outside shots. He takes a team-high 9.1 outside attempts per game, and Houston is close to unbeatable when he goes over his 32.3% average in conference play. The Cougars are 11-3 this season when he makes over 32.3% of his threes. Those three losses all came against NCAA Tournament-caliber teams in Wisconsin, Alabama, and SMU.

No Houston deep dive is complete without highlighting Edwards's fellow backcourt playmaker Jamal Shead (9.8 points in conference, team-high 5.9 assists, team-high 1.7 steals). The spunky sophomore guard is Houston's best playmaker and play destroyer on the other end. He ranks first in AAC play with 32.9% assist rate and is fifth in steal rate (3.4%).

Houston has the best player at all five positions most nights in the AAC, and Tuesday will be no different. This is a Houston program that's won five straight games against Cincinnati by a combined 110 points. Yeesh.

It would take an unconscious shooting night from Cincinnati's backcourt to overcome the mismatch near the basket. Any UC path to victory must include a sizable advantage on the boards and a terrible shooting night from White and Edwards to pick up their first win at Houston since Jan. 2017.

The contest tips off on Tuesday at 9 p.m. ET on ESPNU.

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