Game Preview: Bearcats Take on Houston in AAC Championship

Cincinnati is seeking their first 13-0 record in program history.

Author:
Russ Heltman
Dec 3, 2021 10:44 AM EST

CINCINNATI — It all comes down to this.

The Cincinnati Bearcats take on the Houston Cougars this Saturday in the AAC Championship game. The program's all-time winningest senior class is trying to make the final case for the College Football Playoff.

"This is everything that we've worked an entire year for, and that's first and foremost," head coach Luke Fickell said at his weekly press conference. "This is something that our guys have made an objective and we've got to make sure that we are not denied, nor distracted by all the different things...This is another opportunity for our seniors [and] for our entire program to play in front of an incredible crowd and student section with an opportunity to win a championship at home."

Cincinnati has never reached 13-0 in program history, and they'll face the toughest test in over two months to get there. UC whooped the Cougars at home last November 38-10, but this Houston (11-1) team hasn't lost since they fell by 17 points to Texas Tech in Week One. An easy schedule has really helped that run. Houston's played the easiest strength of schedule of all 130 FBS teams.

Head coach Dana Holgorsen's crew averages the ninth-most points in the country (38.8 PPG) and is 19th in scoring defense (19.8 PPG allowed). They have steadily climbed to 29th in Bill Connelly's SP+ metric (UC sits at No. 5). Houston ranks t-25th in net yards per play (1.03), and Cincinnati ranks third (2.48).

Quarterback Clayton Tune headlines the team on offense as he and Desmond Ridder face-off as arguably the two best passers in the AAC this season. They each boast a 91 overall PFF Grade this season, tied for the fourth-best AAC showing since 2014. Tune's passed for 3,013 yards this season on 68.7% completion. His 8.9 adjusted yards per attempt ranks 29th nationally and the highest among UC's opposing quarterbacks this season.

They'll be ready for Tune, boasting a defense that ranks top five nationally in most passing defense categories, including passing yards per game (160.6, third), and touchdown passes allowed (third, eight).

The advanced stats tell a similar story. Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner and company are sixth nationally in EPA/pass play allowed (-0.184). They are fourth in overall EPA/play allowed. Tune will need to play the best game of his career for this Houston offense to lift off. The rushing attack is largely a non-factor; they average 0.019 EPA/rushing play (72nd nationally) and 4.1 yards per carry (78th nationally).

Houston's path to victory is a quick start from Tune and a continuation of their stellar defensive play. The Cougars cause headaches with a nasty front four and an opportunistic secondary. The upset path relies on pressuring Ridder.

Every UC opponent this season had that goal—easier said than done. Cincinnati allows a 19% pressure rate (third-best nationally) and is averaging 46 PPG this year when opponents get less than a 15% pressure rate. If Houston can't get to Ridder consistently, it's curtains for the Cougars.

They're arguably better equipped to hassle Ridder than any other team so far in 2021. Houston ranks 10th nationally in sack percentage (9.87%) and third in team pressure rate (40%).

“Yeah, their front four is where they go on their defense," Ridder said about the Houston defense. "It’s backed up by good players behind him, but they don’t pressure much as far as blitzes. They like to get after the quarterback with their front four. I think they lead the conference with 43 sacks, so we know our offensive linemen have a challenge in front of them. For me, it just means I have to get the ball out that much quicker, and when I do get the ball out, our playmakers need to make plays. You know, they don’t do a lot in the back end to confuse us, as a quarterback or anyone else, but they just play ball. You know that’s what we like to do. Once the ball goes down, we just play. I think if we can handle the front four, it’s going to be a good game.”

There are no individual weapons to key in on for Houston; seven Cougars boast between 3.5 and six sacks this season. D'Anthony Jones leads the team with six sacks and that total team pressure rate has helped them force turnovers on the back end. Houston ranks t-18th nationally with 1.2 INTs/game and second in havoc rate (total passes defended, tackles for loss, and forced fumbles divided by total plays).

“They play fly-around, attack the ball football," Ridder said. "That’s how we preach it here, that’s all we preach here. There’s a lot of similarities in the way they go about their games, the way they play their football. I think with their defense and our defense. it’s really just about attacking the ball and how to get the ball out as quick as we can.”

Whichever Cincinnati offensive linemen wears the Skyline Block of the Week will have earned it after this game. Houston's defense is feeling good and hungry with nothing to lose as 10.5 point underdogs.

Kickoff from Nippert Stadium is at 4 p.m. ET on ABC.

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