Colorado Football Has Massive Surge in FPI With Upset Win

The Colorado Buffaloes shocked No. 22 Iowa State, catapulting six spots to No. 53 in ESPN's FPI

Oct 11, 2025; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders before the game against the Iowa State Cyclones at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

After two agonizing weeks of blown leads and frustrating finishes, the Colorado Buffaloes were finally able to fundamentally change the trajectory of their season. The gritty 24-17 upset over the then-ranked No. 22 Iowa State Cyclones was a desperate injection of life, and now, national media has validated the magnitude of the win.

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the victory was massive. The Buffaloes shot up six places to No. 53 overall in the latest rankings, a jump only bested by Utah in the entire Big 12. The FPI surge is proof that Colorado coach Deion Sanders finally has the Buffaloes moving in the right direction.

Once teetering on the edge of a disaster, the Buffaloes are inching closer to a real, mathematical path to a second consecutive bowl appearance.

Bowl Eligibility Has Become Clearer

Oct 11, 2025; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes head coach Deion Sanders walks the sidelines in the second half against the Iowa State Cyclones at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The FPI deals with raw numbers and what it sees for the Colorado Buffaloes is a clear, mathematical opportunity. 

The surge in the rankings reveals a few crucial data points about the Buffaloes outlook. By jumping six spots to No. 53 overall, making them the No. 12 team Big 12 Conference, the FPI model projects the team will finish the season with a 5.1-6.9 record. 

But the most crucial number is the probability: Colorado is now given a 36.7% chance to reach the coveted six-win bowl eligibility barrier. The Buffs must go 3-2 over the final five games. A month ago, after consecutive losses, that might have sounded out of reach. Today, the Buffaloes have found an identity in two areas, and with continued improvement, the road to six wins sounds less like a fantasy and more like an expectation.

Offensive Line Takeover

Oct 11, 2025; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes offensive lineman Jordan Seaton (77) during the second quarter against the Iowa State Cyclones at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The most significant development of this entire season comes from the offensive line that was once the program's greatest vulnerability. The Colorado Buffaloes offensive line dominated against Iowa State, and this performance is providing a stability that hasn't been seen in the Deion Sanders era.

The offensive line paved the way for 140 rushing yards and, more crucially, allowed zero sacks on the day. According to Pro Football Focus, the line ranked No. 1 nationally in average time before pressure at an absurd 4.44 seconds per dropback. That is the improvement that Kaidon Salter needs and it’s been a stunning turnaround for a group that has faced constant questions.

At the center of this shift has to be because of the leadership and dominance of starting left tackle Jordan Seaton. He spent the Iowa State game logging 30 pass-blocking snaps without surrendering a single pressure. That elite effort earned him an 89.1 PFF grade in Week7. If Seaton can keep playing at this level, he will undoubtedly be an early-round draft prospect in 2027.

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Kaidon Salter Awakens

Oct 11, 2025; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Kaidon Salter (3) passes the ball in the first quarter against the Iowa State Cyclones at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The dominance up front immediately translated to Quarterback Kaidon Salter, who rebounded emphatically from those previous rough outings. Playing arguably his best game of the year, Salter was able to operate with the composure and precision the offense has desperately needed.

Salter finished the afternoon 16-for-25 for 255 yards and two touchdowns, adding an additional 57 rushing yards on nine carries. His clutch playmaking, especially the 70-yard touchdown strike to Omarion Miller early in the third quarter, was a momentum-flipping play the Buffs failed to produce in the two blown leads to BYU and TCU.

But Salter wasn’t alone in benefiting from the elite protection, as wide receiver Joseph Williams, whom Coach Prime called a "dawg" postgame, hauled in a career-high eight catches for 128 yards and his third touchdown of the season.

On the defensive side of the ball, with help of a penalty flag being picked up, safety Tawfiq Byard provided the defensive spark by flipping the momentum entirely with a massive interception in the red zone. The entire team seemed to just play with more confidence and execution because the O-Line gave them the opportunity.

The Road Ahead to 3-2

Oct 11, 2025; Boulder, Colorado, USA; General wide view ofthe second half between the Iowa State Cyclones against the Colorado Buffaloes at Folsom Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The good news is the Buffaloes have a perfectly timed bye week to heal up their sidelined players and address a persistent problem that continues to plague the defense: stopping the run, as evidenced by Iowa State running back Abu Sama III's 177 yards. 

The road to bowl eligibility starts with a monumental challenge against a 4-1 Utah team on October 25th. If the Buffs can replicate the O-Line's performance, and Salter doesn’t turn the ball over, they have a genuine chance to steal a win and make the rest of the schedule—with matchups against teams ranked lower in the FPI—look manageable.

The FPI’s six-spot jump is a reflection of a tangible change in the Buffaloes season. All because of a season-shifting win over Iowa State and by finding its identity, anchored by solid offensive line play. 

For Coach Prime, who has weathered endless scrutiny this season, the FPI validation is proving that the Colorado Buffaloes are finally surging upward again.