NoleGameday staff score predictions for FSU football vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

The Florida State Seminoles are a little over 24 hours away from kicking off their 2025 season against the Alabama Crimson Tide in Doak Campbell Stadium.

It's been 272 days since the last time the Seminoles took the field in Tallahassee. That will finally change on Saturday with a high-profile non-conference matchup as Florida State hosts an experienced Alabama squad.

Everyone knows what type of season Florida State is coming off of. On the other hand, Alabama went 9-4 last season, which is a disappointment relative to the Crimson Tide's expectations. Second-year head coach Kalen DeBoer wants to get his program started on the right foot despite being on the road.

Florida State will field as many as ten new starters on offense and seven on defense. The Seminoles have new offensive and defensive coordinators, fresh faces across the coaching staff, and 49 players on the roster who weren't with the program last season.

Head coach Mike Norvell is hoping the changes will power Florida State to rebound this fall. It all starts with one of the toughest tests of the season right out of the gate.

Our staff provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Crimson Tide.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

Florida State quarterback Tommy Castellanos walks into the first spring practice of the spring season on Wednesday, March 19, 2025. | Liam Rooney/Tallahassee Democrat / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The time has finally arrived to see if the Seminoles can put last season behind them and get back on the right track. I have no idea how to feel about this team entering the year, and maybe that could be an advantage for Florida State.

With all of the changes along the coaching staff and roster, Alabama has an idea of what FSU will look like but no one will really know until the ball kicks off. The Seminoles have the element of surprise and the unknowns going in their favor.

Considering this is the first game of the season, it wouldn't surprise me to see Florida State pull off a few trick plays and other things Norvell might not do later in the season to try and upset Alabama. The Crimson Tide is extremely aggressive on defense, I wonder if that's something the Seminoles can use against them with screens, jet sweeps, and misdirections.

Tommy Castellanos is going to need to be efficient with his arm and make timely plays on the ground. He will be the engine that drives or sinks Florida State's offense.

As for the defense, Tony White has a strong pedigree of defending the run well and not allowing a ton of points. Alabama lost its starting running back to an injury and could have as many as three new starters on the offensive line if Jaeden Roberts is unable to play.

Quarterback Ty Simpson will be making his first start for the Crimson Tide. He's only thrown 50 career passes with no touchdowns and no interceptions in three years. Simpson has never seen any major action at the college level and now he has to be the guy for Alabama in an extremely hostile Doak Campbell Stadium.

Luckily, Simpson has one of the best wide receiver rooms in the country to lift him up, headlined by phenom Ryan Williams. Regardless, if Florida State forces a few early punts and rattles Simpson, how will he respond? No one truly knows until you're in the heat of battle.

One thing I do know is that Alabama's defense is loaded with talent and experience. The Crimson Tide is returning ten players who saw 400+ snaps last season, along with eight of their top ten tacklers from 2024.

That will be the difference in the end but Florida State will stay in this game and keep it closer than many across the country expect.

While it may not be a victory, Seminole fans will learn this year's iteration of the team will compete and fight a lot harder than the debacle from last season.

How many games did Dustin predict correctly in 2024? 9-3

Crimson Tide 27, Seminoles 17

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

Darrell Jackson Jr. — Nov 2, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive tackle Darrell Jackson Jr (6) pursues North Carolina Tarheels running back Davion Gause (21) in the second quarter at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Myers-Imagn Images | Robert Myers-Imagn Images

This one all comes down to the trenches for me. I think FSU’s offensive line is certainly improved but I’m cautious about the defensive line. I have a lot of question marks of Darrell Jackson. Can he be a game wrecker? Has he put everything together? What depth is behind him that can step up?

Thomas Castellanos is going to be fun to watch, a whole 180 from what you had last year where it felt like you wanted to bash your head in after another disgusting 3 and out on offense. Now, if he can get clicking on air, we’ve got us a game in Doak.

Too many question marks going into this game that doesn’t give me enough confidence for Florida State to give Ty Simpson fits in his first start. I think this game will be closer than what Vegas is saying but the Crimson Tide will pull off their 24th consecutive season opener win.

How many games did Logan predict correctly in 2024? 9-3

Crimson Tide 27, Seminoles 17

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

Apr 20, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles running back Roydell Williams (24) runs the ball during the Spring Showcase at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

I'll be frank, I'm not very high on this Florida State roster. For those of you who watched our record predictions podcast on "Hear the Spear," or really any podcast this offseason, that shouldn't be a surprise.

While I think they'll have a much-improved rushing attack, what happens when they have to play from behind? They really don't have much experience at receiver, and while the tight ends look great on paper, how realistic is it that they can build a passing attack through them?

The defense should be better coached, and the linebacker room is the best it has been in a long time, but I'm still not totally convinced that the entire defense is talented enough. Tony White's scheme is good against the run, something I expect Alabama to want to try and establish, but that's going to rely on players like Darrell Jackson being much more consistent than he was last season.

Alabama is just a much more talented team, and FSU is going to have to build chemistry on the fly with an offensive line that was banged up in the spring and summer.

If I were to look through garnet-tinted glasses, I could talk myself into Gus Malzahn having a winning experience as a play-caller against Alabama, running quarterbacks often giving the Crimson Tide issues, and an improved defense making a difference. I just can't get myself there. I need to see how this team performs before I even consider picking an upset like this.

Florida State probably starts hot, looking to prove a point, with scores on the first two possessions, but then they really struggle to move the ball as Alabama adjusts.

So, in my best Pat McAfee voice, as much as it pains me to say it, "Give me Alabama."

How many games did Austin predict correctly in 2024? 8-4

Crimson Tide 30, Seminoles 13

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

Aug 24, 2024; Dublin, IRL; Georgia Tech linebacker Justin Cryer reacts after their loss to Georgia Tech at Aviva Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tom Maher/INPHO via Imagn Images | Tom Maher/INPHO via Imagn Images

As Doak Campbell Stadium wraps up its massive renovation, the construction feels like a metaphor for where Florida State football stands entering the 2025 season. The dust and noise surrounding Doak aren’t just signs of construction. Rather, they’re a reflection of a program in transition.

Just as the stadium is being stripped down and rebuilt, so too is the football program. Revitalized by a horde of new faces on both the coaching staff and the roster, FSU’s 2025 squad has gotten as close as one possibly can get to hitting the “reset” button.

It’s a deliberate refresh; an attempt to leave any connective tissues to the 2024 season behind, and a commitment to recapturing the foundations of success. HC Mike Norvell’s journey to return the ‘Noles to form will face its most difficult challenge in Week 1, however, as another storied program rolls into Tallahassee, seeking to rediscover its dynastic ways.

The Alabama Crimson Tide (AP #8) travel to the confines of Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday in the first half of a home-and-home series with the Seminoles.

Despite being in a post-Nick Saban world, the Tide have all but reloaded in terms of talent, and they’re hellbent on proving to the College Football world at large that they’re still a presence in the CFP landscape.

The mix of talent and desire makes Alabama a formidable hurdle for the ‘Noles to overcome. Although there are growing injury concerns for Kalen DeBoer’s group, there is no shortage of talent or depth to replace the likes of RB Jam Miller or NT Tim Keenan.

Headlined by the likes of WR Ryan Williams, the Crimson Tide roster is filled to the brim with high-profile ball players, including LT Kadyn Proctor, former 5-star QB Ty Simpson, WR Germie Bernard, and LB Deonta Lawson, to name a few.

All that aside, the talent in the trenches alone holds the potential for Alabama to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball for the entirety of the game.

If the Tide’s defense can find a way to contain FSU QB Thomas Castellanos, if RB Miller’s replacements can find consistency in the run game, if QB Ty Simpson can avoid the turnover bug, and if the Alabama OL plays as advertised, then it’s going to be a long afternoon for the ‘Noles.

On the Florida State sideline, the key to victory is clear: FSU has to play its very best in every facet of the game for all four quarters, and even then, they still might need a bit of luck. The odds are ever stacked against Mike Norvell and his squad, especially considering the kind of turnaround that is needed for the ‘Noles.

Surprisingly, FSU’s strength (and perhaps optimism) lies in the sheer amount of unknowns across the board. Closed practices and tight lips have kept the breadth of the impact of OC Gus Malzahn’s scheme, DC Tony White’s scheme, and widespread roster additions relatively secret.

How impactful will the likes of transfer players QB Castellanos, WR Robinson and DB Jerry Smith be? Have the likes of TE/DL Amaree Williams, LB Justin Cryer, and DB Ja’Bril Rawls taken significant steps in their development? What roles with these players even play in the new schemes on both sides of the ball? Sure, there’s a plethora of film and pre-existing data on both players and schemes alike, but no one knows for sure until toe meets leather.

Thinking ahead to Saturday’s contest, I’m eager to find out exactly what this new-look Florida State team will look like, and whether or not the changes are enough to avoid the downward spiral witnessed last season.

In discussions with fans on social media, I found myself clinging to the following sentiment shared by one such fan: We’re going to find out whether this team’s identity more closely resembles the tight-knit, scrappy identities of the Mike Norvell teams of ’22 and ’23 or the fractured identity of the ’24 squad.

This determination is sure to be a defining moment in the characterization of this 2025 edition of Florida State Football, and Saturday’s matchup against Alabama is sure to be a trial by fire.

Despite the projections heavily favoring the Crimson Tide to run away with this game, I believe the ‘Noles will keep things competitive in the early stages of the contest, and perhaps even make things interesting late into the third quarter.

Behind OC Gus Malzahn’s scheme, the Seminoles will showcase a transformed offensive attack that is leaps and bounds better than what was experienced during last season. On the defensive side of the ball, DC Tony White and his group will give the inexperienced QB Ty Simpson some fits early on, as well.

However, the disparity in talent and depth is far too large for Florida State to overcome, and that disparity will start to rear its ugly head in the latter stages of the game. It’ll be a good fight from the ‘Noles, but one too many missed opportunities and a handful of self-inflicted mistakes will give Alabama enough time to eventually find their rhythm and pull away in the fourth quarter.

How many games did Dillon predict correctly in 2024? 8-4

Crimson Tide 34, Seminoles 21

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

Earl Little Jr. — Apr 20, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive back Earl Little Jr (0) during the Spring Showcase at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

If Vegas is right, No. 8 Alabama walks into Doak Campbell Stadium, covers the 13.5-point spread, and strolls back to Tuscaloosa, Alabama, like it was just another scrimmage. But that assumes the Tide are still the Tide, and Florida State didn’t spend the entire offseason reshaping itself into something unrecognizable.

This is a program with a new offensive coordinator, a new defensive coordinator, and the No. 6 transfer class from last year. The matchup could bring in just enough chaos to make life interesting for Nick Saban’s… sorry, Kalen DeBoer’s team.

Alabama’s rolling out a former five-star quarterback, Ty Simpson, in his first real test, but they’re also down three starters and playing in front of a garnet-and-gold crowd that hasn’t seen the ’Noles beat the Tide since 2007. That streak feels due, especially after their last meeting, which sent FSU into a tailspin (aside from extenuating circumstances).

It’s hard to predict this one with all of the changes going on, and I have to go with Vegas on this one. Alabama wins it, but fresh starts have a funny way of ruining perfectly good odds.

How many games did Tommy predict correctly in 2024? 8-4

Crimson Tide 31, Seminoles 21

Robert Malcom (@kwrobertm)

Oct 26, 2024; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes wide receiver Isaiah Horton (2) attempts but cannot catch the football against Florida State Seminoles defensive back Azareye'h Thomas (8) and linebacker Omar Graham Jr. (9) during the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

With over half of the starters on the first depth chart of the season being new to the program, it's hard to have a good feel for how this team will perform on Saturday. With that being said, I think that the Seminoles have enough playmakers on either side of the ball to keep it closer than expected for the majority of the game.

With the team undergoing some major schematic changes over the offseason, the team we will see on Saturday won't be the same squad we saw last year, for better or worse.

I don't think a win is completely out of the equation for FSU, as Alabama QB Ty Simpson is making his first career start in a sold-out Doak Campbell Stadium, but for FSU to come out on top, protecting Tommy Castellanos will need to be a priority, along with being physical at the line of scrimmage. Along with that, winning the turnover margin is going to be a necessity for a win.

How many games did Robert predict correctly in 2024? 8-4

Crimson Tide 27, Seminoles 21

Jackson Bakich (@jacksonbakich)

Apr 20, 2024; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles tight end Landen Thomas (17) runs with the ball during the Spring Showcase at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

The Florida State Seminoles do have a history of playing well as underdogs on opening weekends under Mike Norvell.

They covered against Notre Dame (and took them to overtime) in 2021. They beat LSU outright two years in a row as underdogs, too.

Moreover, Gus Malzahn also had a great reputation for stealing a few games from the Crimson Tide during his time at Auburn, whether that be as an offensive coordinator or a head coach.

However, the talent disparity could be too much to overcome. And a lot of the starters on both sides of the ball haven't played as a unit in-game yet. A lot of them are transfers, too.

The 'Noles keep it close in first three quarters, but 'Bama runs away with it in the 4th. Perhaps a backdoor FSU cover at the end.

I have absolutely no idea what to think of this team. With the very limited media availability alongside the completely rearranged roster and coaching staff, there isn't a whole lot to go off of.

How many games did Jackson predict correctly in 2024? 9-3

Crimson Tide 28, Seminoles 17

CONSENSUS: Alabama (8-0)

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