NoleGameday staff score predictions for No. 8 FSU football at Virginia Cavaliers

The No. 8 Florida State Seminoles hit the road for the first time this season to open conference play against the Virginia Cavaliers in a nationally televised game on Friday night.

It's safe to say the stakes in this one are huge for both teams. The Seminoles are looking to stay undefeated and lock in a top-10 showdown against Miami next weekend, while the Cavaliers are trying to avoid their second ACC loss and continue inching towards bowl eligibility.

This is a game that Florida State and Virginia have circled on the calendar. It's almost time to see how it plays out.

The Seminoles and Cavaliers are bringing in two of the more productive offenses in the country. Florida State ranks No. 1 in points per game (58.0) and total yards of offense per game (628.7). Virginia isn't far behind at No. 11 in scoring (45.4) and No. 5 in total yards (564.5).

Whichever defense rises to the occasion will play a major role in this one. Florida State is battle-tested against an Alabama offense that had a veteran offensive line and one of the top wide receiver corps in the country. Virginia has played Coastal Carolina, NC State, William & Mary, and Stanford. None of those programs is known for what they do on defense.

Our staff at NoleGameday provides their predictions and analysis as the Seminoles prepare to take on the Cavaliers.

Dustin Lewis (@DustinLewisNG)

Sep 20, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles offensive lineman Gunnar Hansen (55) celebrates a touchdown during the first half against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

I'm not exactly sure why, but I have a good feeling about Florida State going into this game. Typically, a Friday night matchup against a pesky ACC squad would scare me quite a bit.

Something tells me this Seminole squad is truly different, with a chance to be special if they continue on the right track. Of course, everyone is starting to think ahead to the Miami game in Tallahassee next Saturday night. It could be one for the ages in Florida State stays undefeated.

This team has handled every step with the correct mindset and level of focus in each of its first three games.

Let's not forget what Florida State did to Alabama on August 30. If you ask me, the Crimson Tide is a more talented team in every phase of the game than Virginia.

The Seminoles will also get senior wide receiver Squirrel White, junior tight end Randy Pittman Jr., and redshirt senior running back Caziah Holmes back in the lineup, boosting an offense that has already been soaring. Senior quarterback Tommy Castellanos will be playing as well. Something to watch is if he's limited at all due to the lower-body injury suffered against Kent State.

I expect Florida State to approach this one the right way. Virginia's offense and Chandler Morris might make a few plays, but it won't be nearly enough.

Let's call it a Florida Statement in Charlottesville.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-1

Seminoles 41, Cavaliers 20

Logan Robinson (@LogansTwitty)

Tommy Castellanos — Sep 20, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Thomas Castellanos (1) during the first half against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

FSU’s key to this game will be playing disciplined football. We’ve seen it excel so far through three games but this will be tougher on the road in a Friday night primetime game. This will be a great test to show whether the Seminoles are truly a Top 5 caliber team in the country, taking care of business in their first in-conference game.

If I were to pick a side that needs to step up and show out, it would be the defense. Virginia has shown they can put up points as well but they haven’t faced a defense like Tony White’s yet. Expect for White to mess with Virginia QB Chandler Morris early.

I personally think the Seminoles’ offense puts up points early. Can UVA keep up? I don’t think so.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-1

Seminoles 37, Cavaliers 20

Austin Veazey (@EasyVeazeyNG)

Sep 20, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles defensive back Earl Little Jr. (0) during the first half of the game against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Virginia's defense doesn't scare me, but that offense does. Chandler Morris has been playing college football for the better part of a decade now, so he's seen just about everything one can see in college football. This is going to come down to Chandler Morris and their deep stable of running backs against Tony White's defense.

With these two explosive offenses, the over should be an easy pick here, right? But it's a Friday night ACC game, things are BOUND to get wacky. Just hopefully not wacky enough for Florida State to lose the game.

Virginia has never beaten Florida State twice in a row, and the Cavs do have the most recent win in the series in 2019. I don't expect them to make this their first occasion of consecutive wins. FSU makes up for 1995 (Warrick Dunn was in), despite Virginia wearing the '95 throwbacks, and gets the win in Charlottesville.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-1

Seminoles 31, Cavaliers 24

Dillon Riera (@13d_riera)

Tommy Castellanos and Gunnar Hansen — Sep 20, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Thomas Castellanos (1) celebrates with offensive lineman Gunnar Hansen (55) during the first half against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Come Friday night, Florida State will finally get its first taste of conference action this season when the Seminoles head to Charlottesville to take on the Cavaliers. A team in the midst of a complete turnaround now steps into the spotlight with growing confidence.

Preparation and countless repetitions have brought Florida State to this moment, with players like Thomas Castellanos, Micahi Danzy, and Earl Little Jr. having refined their roles over the course of four weeks. The hype surrounding the Seminoles has only intensified as national attention and praise builds, and this FSU squad now has its eyes set on December and a return trip to Charlotte.

The path to the ACC Championship is still a long and winding one, however, and Friday night in Charlottesville has all the makings of a trap game.

With Miami looming just around the corner, the challenge for Florida State is to avoid looking too far ahead. Virginia is far from a pushover and eager to protect its home turf under the lights.

The Cavaliers boast one of the most dangerous offenses in the country, ranking 20th in FBS in passing (313 yards per game), 13th in rushing (251.5 yards per game), and 11th in scoring (45.5 points per game). QB Chandler Morris has already piled up over 1,050 passing yards in just four games, with WR Trell Harris emerging as his top target at 321 yards.

If FSU isn't locked in, this is an offense that can punish mistakes and flip momentum quickly. Fortunately for the Seminoles, UVA is banged up at key positions, a factor that tilts the matchup in FSU's favor if they can exploit the Cavaliers' depth issues.

And yet, there's reason to believe this Florida State team is different nonetheless. The Seminoles have been focused, hungry, and balanced across all phases of the game through the first month of the season. OC Gus Malzahn's offense is the 2nd highest scoring in the nation (58 points per game) and boasts the 2nd highest rushing attack in the nation (363 yards per game).

Not to mention, DC Tony White's defense is giving up a mere 10.0 points per game (12th in the FBS). Few programs nationwide have matched their level of play, and when they bring the same urgency and intensity that fueled the win over Alabama, the results speak for themselves. This is not the FSU of 2024. This is a team with the talent, discipline, and mindset to handle business.

If Mike Norvell and his squad carry that edge into Charlottesville, the Cavaliers will be hard-pressed to keep it close. For all the talk of a "trap game," the Seminoles have every chance to make a statement and prove that the team we've seen through four weeks is not only capable of handling Virginia but more than ready for its upcoming return to the national stage.

The contest may be a back-and-forth one during the early moments of the game, but I believe in the gamers and flat-out winners on the Florida State roster that are capable of taking over and staving off any upset bid.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-1

Seminoles 42, Cavaliers 31

Tommy Mire (@TommyM3III)

Micahi Danzy — Sep 20, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Michai Danzy (19) reacts after a catch during the first quarter versus the Kent State Golden Flashes at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

If Florida State is going to keep building its playoff résumé, this is the type of road challenge it has to win. The Seminoles have the firepower to strike quickly, and they should set the tone early in Scott Stadium.

Virginia has the balance to punch back and keep things tight after halftime, but over four quarters, FSU’s depth and speed should separate.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-1

Seminoles 41, Cavaliers 27

Robert Malcom (@kwrobertm)

Sep 20, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell before the game against the Kent State Golden Flashes at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

The Seminoles play their first conference game, road game, and night game on Friday, and it's arguably one of the more high-stakes games on the schedule for FSU. The question of whether or not the Seminoles have what it takes to win isn't something going through my mind; we all saw what happened against Alabama to start the season.

With that being said, the Cavaliers are a team I think a lot of people are overlooking, as they are averaging 45.5 points per game, having yet to score less than 31 points. UVA seems to be on the verge of a major program turnaround, and upsetting a team like FSU could be just what they need to put a national spotlight on the team.

While I do believe that Virginia will keep it a close game, maybe closer than Florida State would like, based on the performances I've seen throughout the season so far, and the continued dominance the Seminoles have put on display, I find it hard to believe that it comes to a halt this weekend.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-1

Seminoles 41, Cavaliers 27

Jackson Bakich (@jacksonbakich)

Sep 6, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Duce Robinson (0) catches a touchdown during the first half against the East Texas A&M at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

Florida State has its first road test of the season, and it’s an awkward one. A Friday night game on a short week, at a school that isn’t known for its football or its hostile environments, what could go wrong? But frankly, I think FSU is too talented in the trenches and will control the game on both sides of the ball.

However, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a non-offensive score from the Cavaliers or a lopsided turnover margin that makes this game closer than it should be. The line is a touchdown. I think FSU covers, but I think the staff will walk away thinking they could’ve won by more.

2025 Season Prediction Record: 2-1

Seminoles 34, Cavaliers 24

CONSENSUS: Florida State (7-0)

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