Three key matchups that will decide FSU football's game at North Carolina State

The Seminoles can gain bowl eligibility with a win over the Wolfpack.

Nov 1, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell walks on the field before the game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

The Florida State Seminoles are 60 minutes away from nabbing bowl eligibility for the first time since 2023, and the third time in Mike Norvell's six-year tenure in Tallahassee.

However, to the chagrin of FSU fans nationwide, the Seminoles' two opportunities to obtain a postseason birth require a win in either Raleigh, North Carolina, or Gainesville, Florida.

The Wolfpack is in a similar scenario. While head coach Dave Doeren's seat might not be as hot as Mike Norvell's, they also rest at 5-5 and need to win one of their last two. Their final game is also against an in-state rival (UNC).

There is certain extra pressure on both teams to get the job done this week to avoid sweating it out against a rival in the final game of the season. We'll attempt to break it down.

Many fans will be making the trek to Raleigh, North Carolina, to see their Seminoles take on the North Carolina Wolfpack. If you’re looking for the pivotal matchups – the game within the game on Saturday night – NoleGameday has you covered.

1. Third Downs

Nov 15, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones (1) has the ball knocked away by Florida State Seminoles defensive lineman Mandrell Desir (93) during the second half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

On Friday night, Florida State will need to keep drives going in order to keep its season going. Pretty poetic.

The good news is that FSU is the seventh-best in the country at converting on third downs, while the Wolfpack sits at 122nd-best at third-down defense.

The Seminoles need to take advantage of this matchup. While it's necessary to win third downs in every game, the night to come out flat with your season on the line is not Friday night in Raleigh.

As for the NC State offense, they come in at 62nd in offensive third down conversion percentage, while the FSU defense comes in at 53rd.

Despite having one of the best total offenses in the country, FSU averages 29 minutes in time of possession per game. NC State also averages 29 minutes of TOP as well.

That extra possession, that back-breaking eight-minute drive could be the decisive factor on Friday night. But that requires efficiency on third down.

2. Florida State Front Seven vs. NC State RB Hollywood Smothers

Nov 15, 2025; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; NC State Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey (11) hands off the football to running back Hollywood Smothers (3) during the first quarter at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images | Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

North Carolina State running back Hollywood Smothers is electric. While FSU has 800 more yards rushing on the year, Smothers has nearly double the number of yards on the ground compared to FSU's leading rusher (Gavin Sawchuk - 444).

Granted, FSU has four players with 300+ yards rushing (including QB Tommy Castellanos) as it's been a run game by committee.

However, the Seminoles will need to commit to some form of a game plan toward Smothers, assuming he's healthy.

Smothers didn't look too hot against the Hurricanes, but as FSU found out against Miami, they have one of the best defensive fronts in the country.

Plus, the Seminoles surrendered a season-high 238 rushing yards to Virginia Tech last week, a team that couldn't threaten them through the air like NC State.

3. Florida State Offense vs. The Hostile Environment

Nov 1, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack quarter back Will Wilson (10) runs the ball during the second quarter against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

History repeats itself. Since I was a young lad I've seen FSU lose in Raleigh at night time and time again.

I saw it in 2012, I saw it in 2018, I saw it in 2020, and I saw it in 2022. Three of those games were very winnable, and FSU clawed defeat out of the jaws of victory.

I can certainly see that happening yet again.

And it's not necessarily a lack of confidence in the team (even though there are tremendous inconsistencies with this squad that are evident in the 5-5 record), it's mainly due to the hostile environment that is Carter-Finely Stadium.

Moreover, FSU hasn't won a road game since 2023. The offense showed up against Virginia, while the defense did not. The offense didn't show up against Stanford and Clemson.

That cannot happen on Friday night. Not only do both sides of the ball need to show up, but all three phases, too.

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READ MORE: Former players, fans eager for FSU to get back on track after win over Virginia Tech

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