A 'Down Year'? Why 2026 Could Finally Be Illinois Football's Breakthrough

This time around, there will be no tidal wave of returning starters, no flood of experience to buoy Illinois football. Luke Altmyer isn't walking through that door in the spring. For that matter, neither is Gabe Jacas, Hank Beatty, nor J.C. Davis. There will be no more talk of "This Year's Indiana." Hell, most informed fans around Champaign would be tickled if the 2026 Illini finish as "Last Year's Illinois."

The vast majority of critical football observers are expecting a down year ahead for Illinois, which took heavy losses both to graduation and the transfer portal. But there is a world – perhaps even a few of them – in which the 2026 Illini don't just avoid a step back. Look closely, and there's a path for them to even take a step forward, delivering the sort of final-boss breakthrough season that seemed more achievable each of the past two years. So what gives?

The key to Illinois' potential 2026 surprise: The schedule

Yes, it's January. Of course it's early. Plenty still can and will happen between now and the start of the 2026 season, but the talent-gathering period is closed and rosters are more or less set. Teams have what – and, more specifically, who – they have. And if you take a look at the teams lined up to face Illinois next season, you have to be optimistic about the Illini's chances of at least maintaining ground.

2026 Fighting Illini Football schedule is here. pic.twitter.com/OpXN6xsQaD
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) January 27, 2026

A brief analysis and projection of Illinois' schedule, which was released in full Tuesday:

Sept. 5: vs. UAB
The Blazers went 4-8 a year ago, including 2-6 in the AAC, and are essentially starting over after signing 41 transfers. The Illini should be safe in their season opener. Illinois: 1-0

Sept. 12: vs. Duke
A home-and-home with the Blue Devils comes to Champaign in 2026, only this time Darius Mensah (who transferred to Miami) won't be joining the Dookies. So much for sweet revenge. Illinois: 2-0

Sept. 19: vs. Southern Illinois
The Salukis were a middling team in the Missouri Valley a year ago, and although DJ Williams is a fantastic two-way quarterback, SIU's defense is a mess. Illinois: 3-0

Sept. 26: at Ohio State
The first sign of trouble – and it's a massive (scarlet) red light. Many of Ohio State's stars of last season, including receiver Jeremiah Smith and quarterback Julian Sayin, return in 2026, and the Buckeyes led the country in five-star signees. Yikes. Illinois: 3-1

Oct. 3: vs. Purdue
The Boilermakers were spectacularly bad last year, and the Illini wound up putting them away handily in West Lafayette. The rematch should be no sweat. Illinois: 4-1

Oct. 10: at Michigan State
A pivotal swing game. If Bret Bielema can bring this new group together in time for the Illini's first solid road test (we're giving them a mulligan against the Buckeyes), they could have a real run in them. Illinois: 5-1

Oct. 24: vs. Oregon
Of course, they still have to tangle with the Ducks in Champaign. Stranger things have happened, but coach Dan Lanning and quarterback Dante Moore are going to be the toughest of outs. Illinois: 5-2

Oct. 31: at Maryland
Another doable Big Ten road game. Terps quarterback Malik Washington was brilliant as a freshman, so a matchup in College Park is no gimme, but we'll give the Illini the benefit of the doubt. Illinois: 6-2

Nov. 7: vs. Nebraska
Another pivot point for Illinois. The Illini knocked off the Cornhuskers in Lincoln in 2024, and NU is now patching a hole after the departure of quarterback Dylan Raiola. Memorial Stadium could give the Illini the edge. Illinois: 7-2

Nov. 14: at UCLA
Bob Chesney isn't turning this thing around in Westwood in a season – and he has a lot of turning to do. Another winnable road game for the Illini. Illinois: 8-2

Nov. 21: vs. Iowa
The Hawkeyes could be quite good in 2026, but the "down" team always seems to give the other a hard time. For the sake of argument, we'll make this the Illini's upset special for 2026. Illinois: 9-2

Nov. 28: at Northwestern
If they've come this far – nine wins, including four in a row, and eyeing a potential CFP berth – the Illini aren't letting one get away from them in Evanston, even in a refurbished Ryan Field. Illinois: 10-2

The 2025 Illinois football team celebrates its 20-13 win over Northwestern and securing The Hat award in the teams' rivalry last Nov. 29 at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois. | University of Illinois

Can the Illini really pull off a 2026 dream season?

If you're playing the odds, the answer is no. New quarterback Kaitin Houser still has plenty left to prove, the defensive line has been drained of talent and experience, and the Illini's trusty special teams – without Beatty and departed kicker David Olano – suddenly look a tad suspect.

But Bielema has earned some grace. (Illinois has typically overdelivered during his tenure.) Plus, a handful of key playmakers (notably defensive backs Xavier Scott and Matthew Bailey, and running backs Ca'Lil Valentine, Kaden Feagin and Adain Laughery) and a very good recruiting class will ensure that the cupboard is anything but bare.

Energy don’t change. X is back. pic.twitter.com/zaeA73CaZq
— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) January 16, 2026

The above projection is, of course, a best-case scenario. The Illini probably have less wiggle room between, say, nine wins and a .500 season than they did in either of the past two years. Doesn't mean they can't buck expectations. They've done it before. With the benefit of a gilded schedule, there's no reason they can't do it again.