Why Nebraska is a must-win game for Michigan

The Michigan Wolverines are back on the road and traveling to Lincoln, Nebraska, this weekend to face Dylan Raiola and the Nebraska Cornhuskers. It's the Big 10 opener for both squads, and this feels like a must-win game for both teams.

The Wolverines enter this game with a 2-1 record with their two wins coming against New Mexico and Central Michigan, and their loss has come to the lone Power Four school they've faced thus far: Oklahoma. Despite the loss to the Sooners, the Wolverines are still ranked No. 21 in the AP Poll, but they need a big win to boost their resume.

With teams like No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Penn State, No. 6 Oregon and No. 9 Illinois in their conference, it's unlikely that the Wolverines win the Big 10 and earned an automatic bid to the College Football Playoffs. The only way I see that happening is if Bryce Underwood takes a massive leap midseason and starts playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and while I think Underwood has a very bright future ahead of him, I'm not sure that'll happen in year one.

Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) smiles at fans as he walks up the tunnel after 63-3 win over Central Michigan at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Sept. 13, 2025. | Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

So, with winning the Big 10 unlikely, the Wolverines' best shot at making the College Football Playoffs is earning an at-large bid. Last year, the at-large bids for the 12-team playoff were as follows: Texas (11-2), Penn State (11-2), Notre Dame (11-1), Ohio State (10-2), Tennessee (10-2), Indiana (11-1), SMU (11-2) and Clemson (10-3).

Based on last year, it seems very likely that Michigan will have to go 10-2 at the very worst to make the CFP (unless they were to go 10-2, make the Big 10 Championship and lose, then they could make it at 10-3, but that seems an unlikely scenario). They already have a loss under their belt, and if they want to make it as a 10-2 team, they'll need some big wins on their resume to beat out other Power Four schools that are also 10-2. And to be quite frank, the Wolverines don't have as many chances to get a major win this season as many of the other teams in the Big 10 and SEC.

Michigan only has two more ranked teams on its schedule - No. 25 USC and No. 1 Ohio State. Obviously, that could change at any moment, but outside of Nebraska, USC and Ohio State, the rest of the Wolverines' schedule is pretty mundane. They'll play Wisconsin, Purdue, Northwestern, Maryland, Michigan State and Washington, none of which are likely to find themselves in the top-25 at any point this year.

Not only is it important for Michigan to win this game because it wants to avoid its second loss of the season, but the Wolverines also need to get big wins when they can get them. Nebraska, USC and Ohio State are the three biggest games left on Michigan's schedule, and I'd dare to say they'll need to win two of the three - with one of them being Ohio State - to make the CFP. If they lose to Ohio State and beat USC and Nebraska, I'm not sure the Wolverines' resume will be impressive enough to earn an at-large over other 10-2 Big 10 and SEC teams.

If Michigan loses this game, it doesn't eliminate them from the CFP, but it certainly puts them on the back foot. They'd likely have to win out in order to make it, so marching into Memorial Stadium and stealing a win would be massive.

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