How the Lincoln Riley standard helped put Tom Herman's job on the rocks
Four years to the day after his heralded hiring, Tom Herman witnessed his tenuous job security take an emphatic — and perhaps decisive — blow.
When Cameron Dicker's 58-yard field goal attempt hooked wide left at the final horn on Friday, the Texas Longhorns' chances of playing for a Big 12 title effectively vanished. Iowa State left the field at Darrell K. Royal Memorial Stadium with a 23-20 victory, and Herman left the field a dead man walking.
This was a prove-it year for Herman, his fourth at the helm of the Longhorns program. He had a gutty senior-to-be at quarterback (Sam Ehlinger), the top running back recruit in the nation (Bijan Robinson), and one of the best defensive players at any position in college football (Joseph Ossai).
Now, as the abbreviated 2020 season winds down, it's the same song and a different verse for the fourth consecutive season: unfulfilled expectations and inexplicable lapses. Texas is 5-3, out of contention for a berth in the conference title game, and on the verge of cutting ties with the man that Longhorns fans believed was their savior.
Tom Herman airs his grievances with an official in Texas' 23-20 loss to Iowa State on Friday.
Photo: Scott Wachter
Asked after yesterday's loss if he was still the right man for the job in Austin, Herman's boilerplate response reeked of saccharine chauvinism.
"That's not for me to decide. I feel like where we have the program right now than where it was when we took over, the future is very bright. ... I feel great about the trajectory of our program."
That "great" feeling isn't exactly the prevailing opinion across Longhorn Nation, and the overwhelming odds suggest that there will be a new head coach at the University of Texas in 2021.
How did things turn sour so quickly for Herman?
After all, he was the sexy hire, the coveted debutante of the 2016 coaching carousel. In just two years as head coach at Houston, he'd led the Cougars to 22 wins. He'd become the first Group of 5 coach in history to sign a five-star recruit, inking wunderkind defensive tackle Ed Oliver in the class of 2016. Under Herman's leadership, Houston had gone 6-0 against AP Top 25 opponents, including two victories over top-5 teams. One of those wins was a 33-23 upset over No. 3 Oklahoma to open the 2016 campaign, a show-stopper performance that solidified Herman's status as the consensus top coaching candidate for Power 5 openings.
Meanwhile, in the wake of the debacle that was the Charlie Strong era, Texas wasn't in the mood to get cute with their coaching hire. The program flexed its muscles and deep pockets, signing Herman to a five-year contract with an annual base salary of $5 million. November 27, 2016 marked the dawn of a new era; it was to be the day that the Longhorns began their climb back to the pinnacle of the college football landscape.
But Herman's first game on the sidelines in Austin provided an ominous prelude to the overarching narrative of his whole tenure. Texas fell 51-41 at home to Maryland, setting the tempo for four seasons of inconsistency and frustration. The highs have admittedly been very high: a 48-45 win over Kyler Murray and Oklahoma; an absolute throttling of Georgia in the Sugar Bowl; an Alamo Bowl demolition of a Utah team that came within one win of the 2019 College Football Playoff.
But likewise, the lows have been egregiously low: not one, but two losses to Maryland (2017 and 2018); a couple of narrow escapes against abysmal Kansas; a 1-3 cumulative record against TCU.
But a few hundred miles up I-35, it's a diametrically different story.
While Texas has floundered in the throes of mediocrity under Herman, the Longhorns' chief rival is approaching powerhouse territory. The outlook couldn't be much brighter for Lincoln Riley and the Oklahoma Sooners, owners of five straight Big 12 championships.
Lincoln Riley (left) greets Tom Herman before the 2019 Red River Showdown.
Tom Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Riley inherited the reins at Oklahoma in June 2017 as the upstart heir to Bob Stoops' well-established dominion. But as much as Herman was considered a slam-dunk hire for the Longhorns, Riley was very much a question mark in the eyes of the Sooner faithful. At the time of his promotion, he was the youngest head coach in the FBS. He had no head coaching experience, and he had spent just two seasons on Stoops' staff as offensive coordinator.
In short, few expected to watch Stoops' 18-year reign in Norman give way to a regime spearheaded by a man barely a decade older than most of his players.
But Stoops and athletic director Joe Castiglione saw untapped potential in the soft-spoken native of Muleshoe, Texas. While the Longhorns made the safe bet, the Sooners stepped out on a limb.
Or so it seemed.
All perceptions aside, was Herman objectively more of a sure thing than Riley? After all, both men are quite young, at least among the demographic of collegiate head coaches (Riley is 36 years old; Herman is 45). At the time of their respective hires, Riley had seven years of Power 5 coaching experience, while Herman had six. Each man had won the Broyles Award as the nation's top assistant coach (Herman in 2014, Riley in 2015).
Both coaches are now in their fourth season at their respective school, and given that their tenures began concurrently, it's all the easier to see how Riley and Herman's accomplishments stack up. Riley is 42-8 in Norman, having led the Sooners to a Big 12 championship and College Football Playoff appearance in each of his three full seasons. Texas is 30-18 under Herman, and hasn't won more than 10 games in a season. Riley and the Sooners have claimed four of five head-to-head matchups with Herman's Longhorns.
But here's what is most jarring: Herman's lack of success isn't due to lack of resources or talent. Texas has out-recruited Oklahoma in each of the last three recruiting cycles. Per 247Sports' composite team rankings, the Longhorns' classes ranked No. 3 overall in 2018, No. 3 again in 2019, and No. 8 in 2020.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma had the No. 9 class in 2018, the No. 6 class in 2019, and the No. 12 class in 2020. On the whole, in Herman's time as head coach, Texas has fared better on the recruiting trail than the likes of Clemson, Ohio State and LSU.
It's not as if Lincoln Riley is working magic with flotsam and jetsam. But simply put, there's no coach doing less with more than Tom Herman.
And whatever luster Herman had in the eyes of the nation's top recruits appears to be waning. Top 2022 quarterback Quinn Ewers, widely considered one of the best high school prospects in recent history, verbally committed to Texas in August. However, Herman's pursuit of Ewers alienated the Longhorns' 2021 quarterback signee, Jalen Milroe. The day after Ewers' pledge, Milroe flipped to Alabama.
Come October, Herman lost a long-standing commitment from 2021 ATH Billy Bowman, just days before the Longhorns' soul-crushing 53-45 loss to Oklahoma in quadruple overtime. Three weeks later, Ewers abruptly announced his de-commitment from Texas, saying that he "didn't explore all options... thoroughly." The very next day, elite 2022 wideout Phaizon Wilson also reneged on a pledge to the Longhorns.
To add insult to injury, Bowman then committed to Oklahoma on Nov. 1.
As the 2021 recruiting cycle draws to a close, Herman's edge on Riley in the recruiting game is crumbling. The Sooners boast a class that includes SI All-American's No. 1 overall prospect, dual-threat quarterback Caleb Williams. Oklahoma also has verbals from SI99 wideouts Mario Williams and Cody Jackson. On national signing day, the Sooners could very well buttress their already impressive haul with the addition of offensive lineman Bryce Foster (No. 30 overall prospect, per SIAA) and running back Camar Wheaton (No. 9 overall).
And if Bowman's flip to Oklahoma wasn't enough of a slap in the face for Herman, defensive back and Austin native Latrell McCutchin (No. 73 overall) spurned his hometown school's advances in favor of the Sooners.
2021 DB Latrell McCutchin, an Austin native, committed to Oklahoma on July 4.
But perhaps the most damning indictment of Herman is the fact that he's demonstrated a complete inability to stabilize his program amidst adversity. Only once in his tenure has he led the Longhorns to a winning streak of more than four games. Riley has done it seven different times at Oklahoma in the same span. In the Herman era, Texas has lost back-to-back games four times, while Oklahoma has only dropped consecutive contests once in that time frame.
Oh, and in case you somehow hadn't heard this ubiquitous factoid yet, the Sooners have never lost a game in the month of November under Riley.
Sooner Nation was in an uproar at the beginning of October, when Riley's team held a 1-2 record and didn't look the part of anything resembling a contender. But beginning with that dramatic win over the Longhorns on Oct. 10, the Sooners have ripped off five consecutive victories. This week, they sit at No. 11 in the initial CFP rankings, and are a virtual lock for the Big 12 championship game should they win their final two contests.
In the face of great turmoil, Riley rallied Oklahoma and righted the ship.
Looking for a parallel down in Austin? Well, the closest thing to a turnaround that Herman has ever engineered at Texas came in 2018, when the Longhorns rebounded from their season-opening loss to Maryland with six wins in a row. They climbed all the way up to No. 6 in the AP poll, their highest ranking since 2010. But the run came to an unceremonious end there, as Texas dropped back-to-back games at the hands of Oklahoma State and West Virginia.
At this moment in time and history, Oklahoma and Texas are headed in opposite directions. While the Longhorns wander in the wilderness, perpetually in search of the promised land, the Sooners have risen from the ashes of a lost season to re-assert themselves as one of the nation's most dominant programs. Riley's recruiting prowess is starting to bear fruit, while Herman's yield on the trail continues to spoil.
And for better or worse, the Texas fanbase will always view the forays of their head coach through a crimson-tinted lens. And likewise, the Oklahoma fanbase will view the forays of their head coach through a burnt orange-tinted lens. The nature of the Red River Rivalry is such that one program's success is largely judged in proportion to the success of the other's.
That's why this weekend, Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte will no doubt face pressure from boosters to relieve Herman of his duties.
The Longhorns have three conference titles in 25 seasons of Big 12 football. Three weeks from now, Lincoln Riley may own four conference titles all by himself. It doesn't seem likely that Longhorn Nation wants to continue playing catch-up with their program's most detested adversary.
Regardless of where the standard has historically fallen in Austin, what matters far more in 2020 is the standard Riley has set in Norman.
And Herman simply hasn't shown that he is capable of matching that standard.
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