Surprising Big Ten Team Picked To Win National Championship Over Texas Longhorns

The Oregon Ducks reign as Big Ten Conference champions but football insiders are picking the Penn State Nittany Lions to win the College Football Playoff National Championship over the Texas Longhorns.

Good news is, coach Dan Lanning the Ducks will have a chance to assert themselves as the best team in the Big Ten during week 5. Oregon travels to face coach James Franklin, quarterback Drew Allar and Penn State in a highly-anticipated "whiteout" game at Beaver Stadium in Happy Valley on September 27.

penn state nittany lions texas longhorns oregon ducks steve sarkisian james franklin dan lanning college football playoff — Jul 15, 2025; Atlanta, GA, USA; Texas Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisan talks to the media during SEC Media Days at Omni Atlanta Hotel. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images | Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

"For me, it's gonna be between Texas or Penn State, but I'm gonna go with Penn State," said football analyst and former NFL receiver Harry Douglas. "When you look at their defense, they have another ferocious pass rusher. When you look at Dani Dennis-Sutton, he's a guy that had 4.5 sacks in three playoff games last year in the College Football Playoff."

"(Quarterback) Drew Allar is a guy that wants to redeem himself. He had that terrible interception late vs Notre Dame that allowed Notre Dame to kick that field goal in advance in the CFP. So Drew Allar's gonna come and tear up the league this season," Douglas continued on SportsCenter.

Certainly the Nittany Lions have the revenge factor heading into the 2025-26 football season. Oregon beat Penn State in the 2024 Big Ten Championship game, 45-37. Allar threw 20-for-39 completions, 226 yards, three touchdowns, and two interceptions, while running back Nicholas Singleton, rushed for 105 yards on 10 carries.

Dec 7, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar (15) warms up before a game against the Oregon Ducks in the 2024 Big Ten Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

The returning duo is dangerous and hungry for a national championship after reaching the College Football Playoff semifinals in 2024.

College football analyst Heather Dinich pointed to Penn State's experience and a new hire as a leading factor to why she picked the Nittany Lions to win the CFP this season.

"I'm going to go with what I know on paper right now, and that's Penn State, which is loaded," Dinich said on SportsCenter. "We'll start at quarterback with Drew Allar. I think he's going to be a lot better this season. He's got a secret weapon on his side, in defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, who was hired from Ohio State."

"You know why he's a secret weapon? Because he scouted Drew Allar when he was with the Buckeyes and now came to Penn State and said, 'hey, you know what? This is what I saw from you. This is how you can be better.' Allar has something that no one else has in terms of Texas, Ohio State, Oregon: Playoff experience," Dinich continued.

Oct 26, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks head coach Dan Lanning greets fans before a game against the Illinois Fighting Illini at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images | Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Penn State's Knowles hire is a big one, as the former Buckeyes defensive coordinator dominated the Ducks in their most recent matchup, a 41-21 Rose Bowl loss.

While Penn State has the returner Allar at quarterback, Oregon will be starting a new quarterback in 2025 after Dillon Gabriel was drafted by the Cleveland Browns in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore has not yet been named the starter and will compete with Austin Novosad and Luke Moga for the starting job.

The Ducks and Nittany Lions will go head-to-head in a highly anticipated rematch of the Big Ten Conference championship. Ticket prices are rising fast, with the most expensive ticket for the road matchup costing $1,230 (including fees) in section EE, right at the 50-yard line, on Ticketmaster. The cheapest tickets are at $331 in the upper decks.

Dec 7, 2024; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions head coach James Franklin watches quarterback Drew Allar (15) throw against the Oregon Ducks during the second quarter in the 2024 Big Ten Championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-Imagn Images | Jordan Prather-Imagn Images

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In an exclusive interview with Oregon Ducks on SI reporter Bri Amaranthus, Lanning addressed traveling to Penn State for the white out.

"I've never been there, so this will be my first opportunity to play there," Lanning said. "I've heard it's an unbelievable environment. I know they've got a great fan base as well. Coach Franklin's done an unbelievable job there. Obviously they have a really talented team, so it's going to be a fun challenge for us for sure."

According to FanDuel, Penn State is a -4.5 favorite over Oregon. The Ducks hav the third-best odds to win the 2025 Big Ten title at +300. Ahead of Oregon are Penn State at +260 and the Ohio State Buckeyes at +190.

As for making the College Football Playoff, Penn State's odds are -225 odds, Oregon is at -260, and Ohio State is at -300. With the odds for winning the 2026 national championship at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on Jan.19, the Buckeyes hold at +680, the Nittany Lions with +850, and the Ducks at +900.

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