Bubble Teams' Performance Heavily Impacting USC's NCAA Tournament Hopes

The USC Trojans’ NCAA Tournament chances continue to plummet. USC entered their home game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers as one of the first teams out of the projected field. Not only did USC lose this game, but another bubble team picked up a big win to vault even further ahead of them.

Big Ten Bubble Teams in Action

USC Trojans Eric Musselman NCAA Tournament Bracketology Bubble Watch Projection Ohio State Buckeyes Indiana Hoosiers Big Ten — Mar 1, 2026; Columbus, Ohio, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes center Ivan Njegovan (7) celebrates during the second half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Value City Arena. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images | Joseph Maiorana-Imagn Images

USC dropped their fifth consecutive game in a 82-67 home loss to Nebraska. USC is now 18-11 overall and has a record of 7-11 in Big Ten conference play. Following the loss, USC dropped down to the “next four out” in ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s bubble watch. Five teams were ahead of the Trojans to get the last at-large bid into the 2026 NCAA Tournament. That number may grow.

One team ahead of the Trojans were the Ohio State Buckeyes. Ohio State found themselves in the “first four out” heading into their game against the Purdue Boilermakers. Purdue is projected as a No. 2 or No. 3 seed as of now so it was a huge opportunity for the Buckeyes. They took full advantage.

Ohio State upset Purdue by a final score of 82-74. The biggest blemish on the Buckeye’s resume has been their lack of good wins. The win over the Boilermakers was by far their best of the season and will bump them up on the bubble watch. It will also create more separation between them and the teams right behind them, such as USC.

Ohio State is now 18-11 overall and 10-8 in Big Ten play.

Another team right on the bubble with a big home game was the Indiana Hoosiers. Indiana was in Lunardi’s “last four in” before their game against the Michigan State Spartans. Michigan State is a projected 3-4 seed team so it was an golden chance for Indiana at home. Indiana never led as the Spartans controlled the entire game, beating the Hoosiers 77-64.

Indiana fell to 17-12 overall and 8-10 in Big Ten play.

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USC Trojans’ NCAA Tournament Resume

USC’s resume has been taking a beating over the past few weeks. Here is the breakdown of the Trojans in quad 1, 2, 3, and 4 games.

Q1: 2-8
Q2: 7-2
Q3: 3-1
Q4: 5-0

The Trojans net ranking has dropped all the way down to No. 63 in the country. What makes this falloff so disappointing is how great of a start the season got off to. USC was 8-0 out of the gates, winning the Maui Invitational in the process. USC ended up going undefeated in non-conference play.

All 11 of USC’s losses are in Big Ten conference play. USC now will now likely need to win their remaining two regular season games against the Washington Huskies and UCLA Bruins, and then go on a run in the Big Ten tournament to get back in the NCAA Tournament picture.