Advanced Analytics Predict Winner Of USC vs. Iowa

The No. 17 USC Trojans host the No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum with USC's College Football Playoff hopes hanging in the balance. Do the analytics favor USC and coach Lincoln Riley at home over a tough Iowa team?

Aug 30, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley reacts after the game against the Missouri State Bears at United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The No. 17 USC Trojans are hosting the No. 21 Iowa Hawkeyes in a highly anticipated Big Ten matchup at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Kickoff is scheduled for Saturday, Nov. 15 at 12:30 p.m. PT and will be broadcast on Big Ten Network.

What do the advanced analytics have to say about this Top-25 showdown?

USC vs. Iowa Preview, FPI Prediction

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) warms up prior to the game against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

ESPN’s Football Power Index gives USC a 75.8 percent chance to beat Iowa. The Trojans have the No. 4 highest FPI rating in the Big Ten at 19.43. The Hawkeyes are a few spots below them at No. 6 with a rating of 13.7.

USC is 7-2 overall this season with a record of 5-1 in Big Ten conference play. USC is coming of back to back wins against the Nebraska Cornhuskers and Northwestern Wildcats. With their two losses against the Illinois Fighting Illini and Notre Dame Fighting Illini, there is no room for error if the Trojans want to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff for the first time. 

Oct 11, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley celebrates after kicker Ryon Sayeri (48) hit a 54-yard field goal in the second half against the Michigan Wolverines at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The way it stands right now, USC needs to win out and get to 10-2 if they want to make it in the 12-team playoff. The good news for the Trojans is that their next two opponents are each ranked in the top 25 of updated playoff rankings; Iowa at No. 21 and Oregon at No. 8. Winning both of these games and then closing out the year with a win over the rival UCLA Bruins should be enough for USC to get in.

The Trojans are led by quarterback Jayden Maiava, who has thrown for 2,614 yards, 17 touchdowns, and six interceptions. 

Iowa is 6-3 overall and 4-2 in Big Ten play. The Hawkeyes are coming off a last second loss to Oregon. They are led by dual-threat quarterback Mark Gronowski, who has thrown for 1,084 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 338 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground. 

USC vs. Iowa Betting Odds

Nov 8, 2025; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback Mark Gronowski (11) prepares to throw a pass against the Oregon Ducks during the first quarter at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images | Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images

USC is a 7-point home favorite against Iowa according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Trojans have odds of -250 to win outright while the Hawkeyes are at +205. 

The over/under is a 49.5 points. 

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USC vs. Iowa Score Prediction

Nov 7, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava (14) runs the ball against the Northwestern Wildcats during the second half at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images | Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

With a potential spot in the playoff on the line, this is one of the biggest games for USC coach Lincoln Riley since taking over the program in 2022. USC has yet to make a College Football Playoff since the format was adopted for the 2014 season and this is their best chance since Riley’s first season. 

The Trojans offense was humming against Northwestern and it has been the whole season at home. Iowa is going to try to slow this game down as much as they can to keep Maiava and company off the field.

If the game was in Iowa with in-clement weather, this would be worrisome for the Trojans, but it’s not. At home in Los Angeles, the Trojans keep their playoff hopes alive with a win and cover. 

USC 27, Iowa 17  

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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