ESPN's FPI Predicts Virginia's 2026 Season Game-By-Game

ESPN’s Football Power Index has been released for the 2026 season. In the FPI, ESPN predicts Virginia to go 9-3, good for sixth in the ACC and No. 32 nationally. The Cavaliers were also given nearly an 85 percent chance to reach a bowl game. That mark was fourth among ACC teams.

Preliminary odds for every game are available. Some of them make sense, while others may be a bit of a surprise. Here is what the FPI has listed for each of Virginia’s games, with a light serving of analysis.

NC State: W, 68 percent chance of victory

ESPN projects Virginia to start the season 1-0. NC State is probably going to be one of the Cavaliers’ more difficult opponents — but Virginia’s wealth of experience could make a difference. The Wolfpack should keep things closer than a 68 percent margin in favor of the Cavaliers, though. A slight overestimate to start the season.

Norfolk State: W, 99 percent chance of victory

No result is official until a game concludes — so Virginia should be spotted at the next closest percentage to 100 percent. It would certainly be one of the biggest upsets in sports history if the Spartans win. The Cavaliers at 99 percent should not raise any eyebrows.

West Virginia: W, 73 percent chance of victory

73 percent chance of a Virginia win may be a significant underestimate. The Mountaineers finished third-worst in the Big 12 last season — and the Cavaliers finished first in the ACC. West Virginia did add some portal talent (most notably running back Cam Cook), but Virginia should probably be favored north of 80 percent against a rebuilding Mountaineers program.

Delaware: W, 88 percent chance of victory

Another underestimate — the Blue Hens lost their Power Four games by several touchdowns last year. Virginia should be favored in the mid-90s against Delaware. The Blue Hens are a rising program but are probably several years away from seriously threatening an ascending Power Four team on the road.

At Florida State: L, 38 percent chance of victory

This is one of the most difficult games to predict. More often than not, the Seminoles have had a losing record under Coach Mike Norvell — so ACC contention can not be assumed. However, ESPN is quite high on Florida State. The Seminoles are fifth in the ACC in this year's FPI, one spot ahead of Virginia.

This is a difficult game for the Cavaliers because of the notoriously intimidating environment in Tallahassee, Fla. more so than the Seminoles roster. Virginia as an underdog is fair, but it should be closer to around the 45 percent mark.

Syracuse: W, 79 percent chance of victory

The Orange are one of the biggest wildcards in the conference. Fran Brown is an underrated head coach, Steve Angeli was on a tear before his season-ending injury and Syracuse has a new defensive coordinator. The pieces are there for a massive rebound. However, there are still many unknowns about this football team. Virginia’s 79 percent mark seems solid, although that could decrease as the season goes on.

At SMU: L, 29 percent chance of victory

Virginia-SMU will be one of the most important games in the ACC this year. A true clash of ACC contenders, the Mustangs should have a home advantage. The Cavaliers should be bumped up a bit higher than 29 percent, though. Somewhere in the high 30s is more realistic. The number might climb as high as the low 40s depending on how each team performs early in the campaign.

Duke: W, 69 percent chance of victory

This story has been told often — the Blue Devils lost loads of talent this offseason. However, it would be irresponsible to forget about who they still have. In particular, sophomore running back Nate Sheppard should be one of the ACC’s best runners. Coach Manny Diaz has proven that he can do more with less. A 69 percent chance of victory is reasonable.

At Wake Forest: W, 54 percent chance of victory

A fair prediction. The Demon Deacons feature one of the ACC’s more tenacious defenses, and Wake Forest handed Virginia its only home loss in 2025. Even though the Cavaliers likely have superior talent, the Demon Deacons play tough, aggressive football. This is a possible trap game, just as it was last year.

California: W, 80 percent chance of victory

This is the rare overestimate on this list. The Golden Bears are primed for a major breakout season with an ascending quarterback and venerated defensive mind leading the program. Virginia should be favored, but probably more around the 60 to 65 percent range. It should not be surprising to see Cal in the thick of the race to Charlotte.

North Carolina: W, 65 percent chance of victory

This is one of the more shocking underestimates. The Tar Heels were one of the worst teams in the ACC last year, particularly on offense. Virginia should be favored by upwards of 80 percent in a rivalry matchup that has seldom been fiery. It would be a huge surprise for North Carolina to steal an upset in Charlottesville this year.

At Virginia Tech: L, 46 percent chance of victory

Lane Stadium is a difficult place to play. The Hokies should be favored at home in a rivalry game. On one hand, 46 percent is an underestimate based on the talent, experience and production of Virginia. On the other hand, the Cavaliers have not won in Blacksburg since the 20th century and Virginia Tech should be a talented team. 46 percent seems realistic.

The season overall

A 9-3 campaign would be a strong one for Virginia. It seems like a reasonable outcome. However, sixth place in the ACC would be a disappointment given that the Cavaliers have the most experienced roster in the country and are coming off an appearance in the ACC Championship game.

Winning at Florida State and going 10-2 seems more likely — unless the Seminoles happen to plug some of the various roster holes by the time they play Virginia. If the Cavaliers manage to repeat (or improve) their 2025 performance, they should end up being favored to win every game except for the road date at SMU.

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