How Michigan vs. Penn State affects the College Football Playoff race
Saturday's matchup between Michigan and Penn State was already a statement for the winner in the Big Ten East race, but now it could also help impact how the College Football Playoff looks later this season.
That's according to the Football Power Index computer prediction model, which forecasts future results based on scores and schedules to date.
And when looking at this Big Ten matchup, it appears one team has an outsized chance to use the outcome as a springboard to making the CFP.
What it means for Penn State
Coming into this one, the Nittany Lions were already on the outside looking in as far as making the College Football Playoff.
Ahead of the game, FPI estimates Penn State has the 15 percent chance to reach the semifinal with a win over Michigan on Saturday. That's compared just a 2 percent shot at making it with a loss this weekend.
Even with a win over Michigan but a loss to Ohio State later, the computer suggests all is not lost: Penn State would have the 31 percent chance to make the playoff even if it doesn't make the Big Ten championship.
Penn State's remaining schedule: vs. Minnesota, vs. Ohio State, at Indiana, vs. Maryland, at Rutgers, vs. Michigan State
What it means for Michigan
It's clear Michigan has more to gain, and more to lose, based on what happens Saturday: the Wolverines have a 47 percent shot at the College Football Playoff by defeating Penn State, and a 12 percent chance if it loses.
Even with a win over Penn State and a loss in the season finale at Ohio State, the Wolverines still have a 48 percent chance to make the playoff, owing to the computer's judgement that Michigan has overall higher team quality.
FPI projects that Michigan is 20.8 points better than an average team on a neutral field, compared to Penn State, which checks in at 14.1 points better, according to the projection.
Michigan's remaining schedule: vs. Michigan State, at Rutgers, vs. Nebraska, vs. Illinois, at Ohio State
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College football rankings
According to AP top 25 poll
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Alabama
4. Clemson
5. Michigan
6. Tennessee
7. USC
8. Oklahoma State
9. Ole Miss
10. Penn State
11. UCLA
12. Oregon
13. TCU
14. Wake Forest
15. NC State
16. Mississippi State
17. Kansas State
18. Syracuse
19. Kansas
20. Utah
21. Cincinnati
T-22. Kentucky
T-22. Texas
24. Illinois
25. James Madison
(FPI)