Breaking Down the Cincinnati Reds' 2024 Starting Rotation Ahead of Opening Day

Frankie Montas and Nick Martinez will provide a much-needed veteran presence in a Cincinnati Reds rotation still anchored by youngsters Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott.

The 2024 MLB regular season is about to begin, and that means it's time for every club to lock down its top five starting pitchers.

The Cincinnati Reds were a surprise contender in 2023, albeit one held back by banged up and inconsistent pitching. While there weren't any massive additions to the group over the offseason, the club's young pitchers could each be in line for a leap in 2024 as they continue to develop.

Here is a quick preview of how Cincinnati's starting pitching will look in 2024:

1. Frankie Montas, RHP
2022 Stats: 5-12, 4.05 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 2.0 WAR (OAK/NYY)
2024 Projections: 9-9, 4.42 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 2.1 WAR

Montas missed the entire 2023 season due to shoulder surgery, but he is back to full strength entering 2024. It's not like he was ever a shut-down ace, but Montas showed enough promise with the Oakland Athletics from 2018 to 2021 that he can be counted on to be a decent starter when healthy.

2. Hunter Greene, RHP
2023 Stats: 4-7, 4.82 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 12.2 K/9, 2.0 WAR
2024 Projections: 10-9, 4.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 2.7 WAR

In his first season after inking a solid long-term extension, Greene didn't exactly set to world on fire. Given his pedigree as a top prospect, though, it's probably only a matter of time before the 24-year-old cuts his ERA below 4.00.

3. Graham Ashcraft, RHP
2023 Stats: 7-9, 4.76 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 1.5 WAR
2024 Projections: 9-11, 4.79 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 1.9 WAR

Ashcraft made some minor improvements in his second season with the Reds in 2023, and he was able to hang around for 26 starts. Now entering the early part of his prime at 26 years old, it isn't a leap to assume he turns in an even better 2024 campaign.

4. Nick Martinez, RHP
2023 Stats: 6-4, 3.43 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 1.4 WAR (SDP)
2024 Projections: 7-9, 4.70 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 1.3 WAR

After a pretty solid two-year stretch with the San Diego Padres from 2022 to 2023, Martinez opted out of his contract and tried his luck on the open market. The Reds were more than willing to buy in on the righty, who owns a 3.45 big league ERA since his four-year stint in Japan came to a close.

5. Andrew Abbott, LHP
2023 Stats: 8-6, 3.87 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.2 WAR
2024 Projections: 7-7, 4.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 1.7 WAR

There was a time last year when Abbott was a dark horse contender for NL Rookie of the Year. The 24-year-old didn't have the gaudiest numbers by year's end, but he still showed that he can be a major piece of Cincinnati's rotation for the foreseeable future.

Nick Lodolo, who missed most of 2023 with lingering leg injuries, is finally slated to return in mid-April once he completes his minor league rehab assignment. Brandon Williamson will also start the regular season on the 15-day injured list after tweaking his shoulder a few weeks back.

The pair of lefties aren't guaranteed spots in the rotation when they get healthy, just given how crowded it is, but they are likely to leapfrog Martinez at the very least.

All 2024 projections are compiled using FanGraphs' Steamer model.

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