20 Fantasy Football Stars Destined for Stat Regression in 2025

Michael Fabiano | Jun 12, 2025

Bengals QB Joe Burrow could have a hard time duplicating the 43 touchdown passes he produced last season. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Greatness is difficult to achieve, and it can be even more difficult to duplicate. That’s why I always preach to fantasy managers, new and old, “beware the magical season.”

The NFL has had more than its share of players who failed to live up to expectations after a successful or "magical" season. Remember Braylon Edwards, who had all the looks of a fantasy star when he posted 1,289 yards and 16 touchdowns for the Cleveland Browns in 2007? The Michigan product went on to score 15 more touchdowns ... the rest of his career.

A more recent example is Josh Jacobs, who led the NFL in rushing yards and was the RB3 in 2023. Unfortunately, his stats took a nosedive last season. Jacobs rushed for 848 fewer yards and averaged 5.2 fewer fantasy points, finishing just 28th among fantasy runners

There are countless other examples, too, some of which include gridiron greats. Heck, Dan Marino threw for almost 1,000 fewer passing yards and 18 fewer touchdowns in 1985 after what would be the best statistical campaign of his Hall-of-Fame career in 1984.

The point here is that one monster season doesn't guarantee another, even if an elite athlete recorded it. So, which players who exceeded expectations last season might be in line for a decline in their fantasy and statistical success in 2025?

Here's a list of 20 players, some of whom will remain elite fantasy players, who will still likely struggle to produce the same high-end statistics from just a season ago.

2025 Fantasy Football Players Due for Regression

Lamar Jackson’s 430.4 fantasy points: Jackson is coming off the best fantasy season of all time among field generals. His 430.4 fantasy points are 13 more than the previous best single-season total (417.4) set by Patrick Mahomes in 2022. In the Super Bowl era, Jackson is one of just five quarterbacks to score 400 points. Every quarterback saw a drop in their stats the following year, and Josh Allen is the lone player not to experience at least an 82.9-point decline. Jackson, who scored 415.7 points in 2019, dropped 82.9 points in 2020.

Player	Year	Total TDs	Points	Year	Total TDs	Points	Points Diff.
Patrick Mahomes	2022	45	417.4	2023	27	280.2	-137.2
Josh Allen	2021	42	402.6	2022	42	395.5	-7.1
Lamar Jackson	2019	43	415.7	2020	33	332.8	-82.9
Patrick Mahomes	2018	52	417.1	2019	28	287	-130.1
Peyton Manning	2013	56	410	2014	39	312.7	-97.3

Joe Burrow’s 43 touchdown passes: I’ll include Jackson’s and Baker Mayfield’s 41 scoring strikes from last season in this research, too. In the Super Bowl era, 10 quarterbacks threw for 40 or more touchdowns before 2024. Only two, Tom Brady (+36.8 - 2021) and Drew Brees (+12.1 – 2012) scored more fantasy points the following year. Every other field general saw a decline of no fewer than 48 fantasy points, and 12 others experienced a drop of over 100 points. What’s more, just six had 37 or more touchdowns the following year.

Jayden Daniels’ 891 rushing yards: Daniels was a fantasy beast as a rookie, and he’ll be one of the first five quarterbacks picked in 2025 drafts. However, be aware that rushing for another 891 yards will be difficult. Heading into last season, quarterbacks had rushed for 800-plus yards in a single season eight times. Only Jackson ran for more yards the next year (2024), and the average decrease is 398 rushing yards among quarterbacks who were active (Randall Cunningham missed 1991).

Player	Year	Rush Yds	Points	Year	Rush Yds	Points	Points Diff.
Lamar Jackson	2023	821	331.2	2024	915	430.4	99.2
Justin Fields	2022	1143	296	2023	657	230.2	-65.8
Laamr Jackson	2020	1005	332.8	2021	767	240	-92.8
Kyler Murray	2020	819	378.7	2021	423	300.5	-78.2
Lamar Jackson	2019	1206	415.7	2020	1005	332.8	-82.9
Russell Wilson	2014	849	329.6	2015	553	336.3	6.7
Robert Griffin III	2012	815	317.5	2013	489	213	-104.5
Randall Cunningham	1990	942	347.8	1991	0	0.8	-347

Sam Darnold’s 35 touchdown passes: Darnold was a fantasy superstar last year, throwing for career bests in passing yards (4,319) and touchdowns while scoring 308 points. That was due in large part to the system in Minnesota, where he will no longer be playing now that he’s moved on to Seattle. Furthermore, I don’t think Darnold will repeat any of his numbers from a year ago. He’s a player to avoid in traditional drafts until the very late rounds.

Jared Goff’s second-half fantasy points: Goff finished as the QB6 last season, but it was a second-half run that put him over the top. In Weeks 1-10, Goff averaged 231.1 yards, 15.4 fantasy points and was the QB17. He went on to lead quarterbacks in points over the final eight weeks, averaging 318.6 passing yards and 23.2 points. That includes a four-game stretch where he averaged 28.6 points. Goff won’t have a streak like that again.

Saquon Barkley’s 2,005 rushing yards: Barkley is the ninth running back in NFL history to rush for 2,000-plus yards. He’ll likely be the ninth running back to see his stats fall after such a season. In fact, only Eric Dickerson (1985) didn’t see a drop of at least 113.8 points, and he scored 99.4 fewer points. For more on Barkley regressing, you can click here (if you dare!)

Player	Year	Yards	Points	Year	Yards	Points	Points Diff.
Derrick Henry	2020	2027	333.1	2021	937	193.3	-139.8
Adrian Peterson	2012	2097	347.4	2013	1266	232.7	-114.7
Chris Johnson	2009	2006	392.9	2010	1364	272.9	-120
Jamal Lewis	2003	2066	325.1	2004	1006	164.2	-160.9
Terrell Davis	1998	2008	381.5	1999	211	36.7	-344.8
Barry Sanders	1997	2053	348.8	1998	1491	235	-113.8
Eric Dickerson	1984	2105	327.4	1985	1234	228	-99.4
O.J. Simpson	1973	2003	285.2	1974	1125	170.4	-114.8

Jahmyr Gibbs’ 20 total touchdowns: Gibbs went off for 20 scores last season, which was a big reason for his RB1 finish. He is one of only 25 running backs in the Super Bowl era to score that many touchdowns in a single season. That’s a big sample size, so I’m taking the runners who hit that mark since 2010 (15 years). That list includes nine of the 25 backs, six of which occurred since 2020.

None of these runners scored more than 18 touchdowns the following year, and just two (Todd Gurley, Austin Ekeler) scored more than nine. What’s more, Ekeler is the lone back to score more fantasy points. Among the other seven, the smallest decline in points is 129.1 (LeSean McCoy). Two backs, Christian McCaffrey and David Johnson, got hurt and missed most of the year after their 20-touchdown campaigns. Jonathan Taylor also missed a few games in 2022.

Player	Year	Total TDs	Points	Year	Total TDs	Points	Points Diff.
Christian McCaffrey	2023	21	391.3	2024	0	47.8	-343.5
Raheem Mostert	2023	21	267.7	2024	2	70.9	-196.8
Jonathan Taylor	2021	20	373.1	2022	4	146.4	-226.7
Austin Ekeler	2021	20	343.8	2022	18	372.7	28.9
Alvin Kamara	2020	21	377.8	2021	9	234.7	-143.1
Todd Gurley	2018	21	372.1	2019	14	219.4	-152.7
David Johnson	2016	20	407.8	2017	0	13	-394.8
LeSean McCoy	2011	20	328.4	2012	5	199.3	-129.1

Aaron Jones Sr.’s 306 touches: Jones Sr. finished last season tied for 14th in fantasy points among running backs, and he was seventh among backs with 306 touches. At the age of 29, it was the most touches he’s ever had in a single season. Now entering his age-30 season, Jones Sr. is likely to lose work to Jordan Mason, 26, who the Vikings acquired via trade. This is looking a lot like a potential backfield committee, so regression is coming for Jones Sr. in 2025.

Joe Mixon’s first-half fantasy points: Mixon was a fantasy star in the first 11 weeks, as he averaged a league-best 22.6 points per game. During that time, he averaged more than 100 scrimmage yards and scored 11 total touchdowns. He fell apart down the stretch, though, failing to score more than 10.6 fantasy points over his final four games. With the addition of Nick Chubb and the selection of Woody Marks in the NFL Draft, Mixon managers could have some real concerns.

James Cook’s 18 total touchdowns: Cook is coming off a magical season in terms of end zone visits, scoring 18 times. He scored just nine combined touchdowns in his first two seasons, so this was a major uptick … and it’s likely to come with some regression in 2025. Cook is also looking at a potential holdout over a contract dispute, which has not been a good situation for many players in the past. Keep tabs on Cook’s status.

Ja’Marr Chase’s 17 touchdown catches: Chase went off last season, scoring 403 fantasy points with 17 touchdowns. He's just the eighth receiver in the Super Bowl era to hit that touchdown mark. As you’ll see from the chart below, every wideout to hit that total saw a decline of no fewer than four touchdowns the following season. The good news is that all but three receivers scored double-digit touchdowns the season after posting 17-plus touchdowns. The bad news is that the average decline in touchdowns is eight.

Player	Year	TDs	Points	Year	TDs	Points	Points Diff.
Davante Adams	2020	18	358.4	2021	11	344.3	-14.1
Randy Moss	2007	22	385.3	2008	11	231.8	-153.5
Randy Moss	2003	17	376	2004	13	201.2	-174.8
Randy Moss	1998	21	306.7	1999	11	296.7	-10
Carl Pickens	1995	17	325	1996	12	293.7	-31.3
Cris Carter	1995	17	361.1	1996	10	270.3	-90.8
Sterling Sharpe	1994	18	315.4	1995	0	0	-315.4
Jerry Rice	1989	17	335.6	1990	13	328.2	-7.4
Jerry Rice	1987	22	313.9	1988	9	263.9	-50
Mark Clayton	1984	18	319.4	1985	4	194.6	-124.8

Cooper Kupp’s 63.1 percent slot routes: Kupp has run the majority of his routes (and had the majority of his fantasy success) as an inside receiver. In fact, more than 61 percent of his career routes have come from the slot. That’s unlikely to be the case this season, though, as the Seahawks already have an elite slot man in Jaxon Smith-Njigba on the roster. So, that leaves Kupp to run more routes on the perimeter. He’s a player I’m avoiding in drafts.

Chris Godwin’s 19.7 points per game average: Godwin was on his way to a massive year in the stat sheets, averaging a career-best 19.7 fantasy points in his first seven games. It all went away in that seventh contest, however, as he suffered a gruesome ankle injury that cost him the rest of the season.

Godwin’s status for the start of the 2025 season remains in question as he recovers from surgery, and the Buccaneers added slot man Ohio State’s Emeka Egbuka in the first round of the NFL Draft. As a result, it’s tough (if not impossible) to think Godwin can return to his 2024 glory … not only this season, but maybe ever again.

Jerry Jeudy’s 145 targets: Jeudy blew away his previous career high in targets last season, posting 145 (he never had more than 113 while in Denver). He was an absolute target hog in seven games with Jameis Winston under center, averaging 10 per game. In the 10 games without him, however, Jeudy averaged just 7.6 targets. Winston is now with the New York Giants, and the Browns will get back Cedrick Tillman and signed Diontae Johnson in the offseason. Statistical regression is likely coming for Jeudy this season.

Wan’Dale Robinson’s 93 catches: Robinson averaged a respectable 10.8 fantasy points per game last season, due in large part to his receptions -- he was 10th among wideouts with 93. Of course, that came with some less-than-stellar quarterbacks who didn’t go deep as often and would look to Robinson on underneath routes. That won’t be the case this year, as Russell Wilson and Winston aren’t afraid to sling it downfield. Rookie Jaxson Dart liked to chuck it downfield in college too, so Robinson’s catch total will likely fall.

Brock Bowers’ 112 catches: Bowers is coming off a historic first season, as he broke the record for the most catches by a rookie and led all tight ends in fantasy points. Bowers also joined a group of just 10 tight ends who have caught 100 passes in a single season, dating back to 1966. That list increased to 12 after 2024, as Bowers and Trey McBride both caught 100-plus balls. Unfortunately, the following year wasn’t as fruitful for the first 10.

Trey McBride’s 111 catches: Those 10 tight ends with at least 100 catches all saw a decrease in catches and fantasy points the following season. The average drop in catches is 34.1, and the average decrease in fantasy points is a scary 94.6. This trend isn’t going to hurt Bowers’ or McBride’s draft value, but it is a reminder that last season is last season, and duplicating a magical year is more often than not, very difficult.

Player	Year	Catches	Points	Year	Catches	Points	Points Diff.
Evan Engram	2023	114	230.3	2024	47	89.5	-140.8
Travis Kelce	2022	110	316.3	2023	93	219.4	-96.9
Mark Andrews	2021	107	301.1	2022	73	190.5	-110.6
Darren Waller	2020	107	278.6	2021	55	133.5	-145.1
Travis Kelce	2020	105	312.8	2021	92	262.8	-50
Zach Ertz	2018	116	280.3	2019	88	215.6	-64.7
Travis Kelce	2018	103	294.6	2019	97	254.3	-40.3
Jason Witten	2012	110	231.9	2013	73	206.1	-25.8
Dallas Clark	2009	100	271.7	2010	37	89.7	-182
Tony Gonzalez	2004	102	270.3	2005	78	180.5	-89.8

Jonnu Smith’s second-half fantasy points: Smith is coming off a breakout season, as he finished fourth in fantasy points among tight ends. However, he did most of his damage in the second half. Over the first 10 weeks, Smith was the TE16 and averaged a non-descript 8.2 points per game. Smith went off after that, leading all tight ends with 148.7 points. That stretch of eight games included five with 19-plus fantasy points. That won’t happen again.

Mark Andrews’ 11 touchdowns: Andrews produced a career-best 11 touchdown catches last season, which made him only the 12th tight end to hit that mark in a single season in the Super Bowl era. Of the first 11 tight ends, only one (Julius Thomas) reached that same mark the following year. The average drop in touchdowns is nearly six, and the average drop in fantasy points is 82.5. That doesn’t bode well for the soon-to-be 30-year-old tight end.

Player	Year	TD	Points	Year	TD	Points	Points Diff.
George Kittle	2022	11	200.5	2023	6	203.2	2.7
Travis Kelce	2022	12	316.3	2023	5	219.4	-96.9
Travis Kelce	2020	11	312.8	2021	9	262.8	-50
Robert Tonyan	2020	11	176.6	2021	2	50.5	-126.1
Eric Ebron	2018	13	222.2	2019	3	86.5	-135.7
Jordan Reed	2015	11	244.4	2016	6	168.6	-75.8
Tyler Eifert	2015	13	191.5	2016	5	98.4	-93.1
Rob Gronkowski	2015	11	255.6	2016	3	97	-158.6
Rob Gronkowski	2014	12	266.4	2015	11	255.6	-10.8
Antonio Gates	2014	12	223.1	2015	5	149	-74.1
Julius Thomas	2014	12	163.9	2015	5	121.5	-42.4
Julius Thomas	2013	12	215.8	2014	12	163.9	-51.9
Jimmy Graham	2013	16	303.5	2014	10	229.9	-73.6
Vernon Davis	2013	13	213	2014	2	62.9	-150.1
Rob Gronkowski	2012	11	198	2013	4	122.2	-75.8
Jimmy Graham	2011	11	294	2012	9	237.2	-56.8
Rob Gronkowski	2011	17	330.9	2012	11	198	-132.9

Travis Kelce’s 97 catches: Kelce is coming off a subpar season by his high standards, but he did catch 97 passes in the Chiefs offense. That’s the most of any tight end in the Super Bowl era who was age-35 or older during a single season. Kelce, who will turn 36 in October, will have to make history to duplicate those 97 catches again.

In fact, just one tight end (Tony Gonzalez – 2012) has had more than 90 catches at the age of 36 or older. He’s also the only tight end to have more than 63 catches based on those age parameters. Kelce should remain a No. 1 fantasy tight end, but a season of 90-plus catches and 200-plus fantasy points is unlikely based on the trends of the last 58 NFL seasons.