Saquon Barkley Could Be A Huge Fantasy Football Bust In 2025

Michael Fabiano | Jun 9, 2025

Eagles RB Saquon Barkley is coming off a magical fantasy season, but can he replicate that level of success in 2025? / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

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Saquon Barkley is coming off one of the best fantasy (and real) football seasons of his NFL career.  He produced 33 catches, a personal-high 2,283 scrimmage yards, and 15 total touchdowns. His most impressive accomplishment was on the ground, as he became just the ninth running back in NFL history to surpass the 2,000-yard rushing mark (2,005).

That level of production comes with its consequences, however.

Barkley touched the ball 378 times during the regular season, which puts him smack dab in the middle of what is a troubling trend that surrounds running backs who have seen at least 370 touches in the regular season.

Fantasy footballers know it as the “Curse of 370.”

This total has been reached 93 times in the Super Bowl era, which is far too massive a sample size to research, so I went back and looked at runners who have reached that mark since 2010. As you can see from the chart below, the follow-up season for these 14 players has been mostly bad.

Running Backs With 370-Plus Touches In A Season Since 2010

Player	Year	Touches	Points	Year	Touches	Points	Diff.
Josh Jacobs	2022	393	328.3	2023	270	181.1	-147.2
Derrick Henry	2022	382	302.8	2023	308	246.7	-56.1
Najee Harris	2021	381	300.7	2022	313	223.5	-77.2
Jonathan Taylor	2021	372	373.1	2022	220	146.4	-226.7
Derrick Henry	2020	397	333.1	2021	237	193.3	-139.8
Christian McCaffrey	2019	403	471.2	2020	76	90.4	-380.8
Ezekiel Elliott	2018	381	329.1	2019	355	311.7	-17.4
Le'Veon Bell	2017	406	341.6	2018	0	0	-341.6
David Johnson	2016	373	407.8	2017	17	13	-394.8
DeMarco Murray	2014	449	351.1	2015	237	184.4	-166.7
Le'Veon Bell	2014	373	370.5	2015	137	111.2	-259.3
Arian Foster	2012	391	302.1	2013	143	108.5	-193.6
Adrian Peterson	2012	388	347.4	2013	308	232.7	-114.7
Maurice Jones-Drew	2011	386	305	2012	100	76	-229
Arian Foster	2010	393	392	2011	331	303.1	-88.9
Steven Jackson	2010	376	244.8	2011	302	223.8	-21
Ray Rice	2010	370	276.6	2011	367	372.8	96.2

Aside from Ray Rice, every runner saw his fantasy points decline the year after touching the ball at least 370 times. In several cases, injuries befell these players, like with Christian McCaffrey and David Johnson. Others just experienced a high level of regression.

It’s very possible that Barkley suffers the same fate.

The Eagles' running back also falls into another negative trend, which focuses on runners who carry the football at least 400 times between the regular season and the postseason. In the Super Bowl era, we’ve seen 35 instances of this sort of scenario. And, as the chart below shows, the following season is more often than not a huge statistical disappointment.

Running Backs With 400-Plus Carries In A Single Season

Player	Year	Carries	Points	Year	Carries	Points	Points Diff.
DeMarco Murray	2014	436	351.1	2015	193	184.4	-166.7
Arian Foster	2012	405	302.1	2013	121	108.5	-193.6
Larry Johnson	2006	429	370.9	2007	158	126.5	-244.4
Shaun Alexander	2005	430	376.8	2006	302	142.2	-234.6
Corey Dillon	2004	410	260.8	2005	239	189.4	-71.4
Curtis Martin	2004	408	319.2	2005	220	137.3	-181.9
Ahman Green	2003	403	385	2004	279	228.6	-156.4
Jamal Lewis	2003	412	325.1	2004	235	164.2	-160.9
Eddie George	2000	431	336.2	2001	315	176.8	-159.4
Jamal Lewis	2000	412	227	2001	0	0	-227
Edgerrin James	2000	408	393.3	2001	151	125.5	-267.8
Eddie George	1999	428	293.2	2000	430	336.2	43
Jamal Anderson	1998	480	337.5	1999	19	11.3	-326.2
Terrell Davis	1998	470	381.5	1999	67	36.7	-344.8
Jerome Bettis	1997	423	234.5	1998	316	159.5	-75
Dorsey Levens	1997	400	301.5	1998	142	87	-214.5
Emmitt Smith	1995	451	414.8	1996	366	278.3	-136.5
Natrone Means	1994	400	261.5	1995	192	110.6	-150.9
Thurman Thomas	1993	418	244.4	1994	287	246.2	1.79999999999998
Emmitt Smith	1992	444	373.8	1993	349	305	-68.8
Barry Foster	1992	410	295.4	1993	177	167.8	-127.6
Emmitt Smith	1991	406	309.1	1992	444	373.8	64.7
Eric Dickerson	1986	430	299.2	1987	298	199.9	-99.3
Joe Morris	1986	414	285.9	1987	193	106.2	-179.7
Marcus Allen	1985	402	383	1986	208	209.2	-173.8
Walter Payton	1984	427	324.1	1985	391	326.2	2.09999999999997
James Wilder	1984	407	390.5	1985	365	277.1	-113.4
Eric Dickerson	1984	402	327.4	1985	343	228	-99.4
John Riggins	1983	462	286.6	1984	348	219.2	-67.4
Eric Dickerson	1983	423	392.2	1984	402	327.4	-64.8
Earl Campbell	1980	400	293.4	1981	361	249.2	-44.2
Earl Campbell	1979	401	309.1	1980	400	293.4	-15.7

Only Eddie George (2000), Thurman Thomas (1994), Emmitt Smith (1992) and Walter Payton (1985) scored more fantasy points the following year … and Thomas scored just 1.8 points more and Payton scored just 2.1 points more. So, a decline came 88 percent of the time, ranging from 344.8 fewer points to 15.7 fewer points. What’s more, the average drop in PPR points among those backs who didn’t score more points the following year is 141.

If you subtract 141 points from Barkley’s 2024 total (355.4), he would have finished with 214.3 points. That would have ranked him as the RB20, just behind D’Andre Swift.

Finally, if you haven’t been completely freaked out already, I give you the Curse of the 2,000 Yard Rusher. Looking at the chart below, you’ll see that every single running back to hit the 2,000-yard rushing mark has seen a drop of no less than 99.4 points in the next season!

What’s more, the average drop in fantasy production is 151 points!

Running Backs With 2,000-Plus Rushing Yards In A Single Season

Player	Year	Yards	Points	Year	Yards	Points	Points Diff.
Derrick Henry	2020	2027	333.1	2021	937	193.3	-139.8
Adrian Peterson	2012	2097	347.4	2013	1266	232.7	-114.7
Chris Johnson	2009	2006	392.9	2010	1364	272.9	-120
Jamal Lewis	2003	2066	325.1	2004	1006	164.2	-160.9
Terrell Davis	1998	2008	381.5	1999	211	36.7	-344.8
Barry Sanders	1997	2053	348.8	1998	1491	235	-113.8
Eric Dickerson	1984	2105	327.4	1985	1234	228	-99.4
O.J. Simpson	1973	2003	285.2	1974	1125	170.4	-114.8

These three negative trends (and we can add a fourth if you’re a believer in the Madden curse) should bring at least some doubt to those fantasy fans thinking Barkley is a sure bet to produce monster totals again in 2025. If you look at the historical data in the three aforementioned categories, well, the opposite is actually true … and some of the greatest backs of all time have fallen prey to heightened expectations and statistical regression.

Barkley is currently the RB2 with an overall average draft position of 4.00 on the NFFC website. Over at Underdog Fantasy, he’s the RB1 with an ADP of 2.6 overall. Either way, Barkley could be a huge dud if he falls in line with so many running backs in the past.

Buyer, beware.