Week 11 NFL DFS Reports
Kyler Murray, ARI (DK – $8,500/FD – $9,100)
Murray has been exceptional over his last five games (1,795 combined yards with 16 touchdowns) while averaging 34.62 fantasy points at DraftKings. He is on pace to score 528.32 fantasy points, which is above the success of Lamar Jackson in 2019 (454.95 over 15 games) and Patrick Mahomes in 2018 (482.45). In Week 7, Murray beat Seattle for 427 combined yards with four touchdowns. The Seahawks sit 31st in quarterback defense (29.91 FPPG) with failure in four matchups (39.55, 35.20, 41.70, and 40.15 fantasy points). His salary continues to rise while on a path for the best quarterback season in NFL history (2,375/17 & 604/10 thru nine games).
Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $7,300/FD – $8,400)
Jackson sits ninth in quarterback scoring (22.94 FPPG), which is 49.37 fantasy points behind his path in 2019. His only two value games came in Week 1 (320 combined yards and three touchdowns) and Week 6 (294 combined yards and two touchdowns). Over the previous four starts, Jackson picked up the run game's pace (9/108/1, 16/65, 13/58/1, and 11/55). Tennessee ranks in 26th defense quarterbacks (23.98 FPPG). Their only disaster game (HOU – 361 combined yards and four touchdowns). The Titans have risk defending wide receivers (165/1,854/10), giving Jackson a chance to hit on some long passes. Underachiever in 2020, but he has the talent post an impact score in this matchup.
Aaron Rodgers, GB (DK – $7,000/FD – $9,000)
Rodgers has three touchdowns or more in seven of his nine starts while setting a high floor over his previous four games (283/4, 300/3, 312/4, and 329/3). His only bust game (160/0) came in Week 6 in Tampa. His TD to INT ratio (26:3) is elite while continuing to rank highly in completions over 20 yards (36) and 40 yards (10). The Colts lead the NFL in quarterback defense (17.03 FPPG). Only one opponent scored over 25.00 fantasy points (DET – 336/3). Playing well, but this matchup is against the grain.
Justin Herbert, LAC (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,500)
With the top three quarterbacks not playing on the Sunday main slate, Herbert will be the most attractive player at his position in Week 11. Last week the Dolphins held him to his lowest output (197/3) of the year. Over his six previous weeks, he has 19 touchdowns while averaging 396 passing yards per game. The Jets allow the fourth-most fantasy points (25..00) to quarterbacks with three teams (BUF – 369/3, ARI – 411/2, and KC – 446/5). New York allows 8.1 yards per pass attempt with a minimal pass rush (11 sacks). The Chargers should score at least four touchdowns setting up a winning day for Herbert.
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (DK – $6,700/FD – $8,000)
Last Roethlisberger was a 1.45 percent own in the Millionaire Maker at DraftKings, and I had him projected as the third-highest quarterback. He finished with his best game (333/4) of the year and his second straight strong start (306/3 in Week 9). Roethlisberger jumped to 12th in quarterback scoring (22.39 FPPG) while needing improvement in his yards per pass attempt (6.8). The Jaguars struggled vs. quarterbacks in four (30.45, 42.15, 27.05, and 29.65 fantasy points) of their previous five games, pushing them down to 30th in quarterback defense. Over the last eight contests, Jacksonville allowed 29 touchdowns and 251 points (31.4 per game). Pittsburgh has depth at wide receiver, and Roethlisberger should have length in his passing down window (Jaguars have eight sacks). Winnable game if James Cooner doesn’t steal his scoring upside.
Deshaun Watson, HOU (DK – 6,500/FD – $7,700)
Watson posted his lowest game of the year in Week 10 (163/1). Over his previous five starts, he gained over 300 combined yards each week, leading to 1,732 yards and 13 touchdowns. His top two showings (384/3 and 361/4) came in Week 5 and Week 6. The Patriots have the sixth-best defense against quarterbacks (19.34 FPPG), with Russell Wilson delivering the only impact score (327/5). New England allows 8.6 yards per pass attempt, which invites upside for Watson. More here than meets the first glancing eye.
Teddy Bridgewater, CAR (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,200)
Bridgewater came out of last week’s game with a knee issue, which may lead to him missing this week’s game. He turned in a limited practice on Wednesday. Over his last two starts, he picked up three touchdowns in each game thanks to a pair of rushing scores. His highlight game came in Week 9 (329/3) vs. the Chiefs. Bridgewater doesn’t have a game with more than two passing touchdowns. The Lions gave up over 20.00 fantasy points to every quarterback in 2020, but no one scored over 28.00 fantasy points. They rank 22nd defending quarterbacks (23.38 FPPG). Reasonable floor, plus Christian McCaffrey could play this week.
Matt Ryan, ATL (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,800)
Ryan completed over 70.0 percent of his passes in each of his previous four games. He has five games with one touchdown or fewer while playing well in three games (273/4, 371/4, and 284/3). On the year, Ryan averages 39 passes per game. In 2019, he struggled in New Orleans (182/2) with better success at home (312/2). New Orleans improved to 14th vs. the quarterback position (21.98 FPPG) after holding Tampa (208/0) and San Francisco (250/1) to short games. The Saints did allow three touchdowns or more to four teams earlier in the year. The key here is a clean injury report for Calvin Ridley.
Cam Newton, NE (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,600)
Despite short passing yards in six of his eight starts, Newton is 4-4 while being a couple of plays away from two more wins (stopped at the 1-yard line in Week 2 vs. Seattle with no time left on the clock and fumbled at the 14-yard line with 37 seconds left in the game vs. the Bills). Newton is on pace for 3,070 yards with six passing touchdowns and 14 interceptions while being on a much higher path on the ground (160/670/18). His only game of value came in Week 2 (444/3). Houston is league average defending quarterbacks (22.44 FPPG) with failure in two games (TEN – 364/4 and GB – 282/4). The Patriots lack receiving talent, which forces Newton to earn his keep on the ground.
Kirk Cousins, MIN (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,100)
Over four starts at home, Cousins has 11 touchdowns, with his best success coming in Week 6 (343/3) in a chaser game. His yards per pass attempt (9.9) has been electric at home, but he averages only 27 passes per game (27.4 on the road). The Vikings have won three straight games within their division, two coming on the road vs. the Bears and Packers. Dallas has been up and down with their quarterback defense (22.95 FPPG – 20th). Four opponents scored over 28.00 fantasy points, and five teams scored under 19.00 fantasy points. Cousins is more of a flier due to Dalvin Cook leading the change with rushing touchdowns.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,300)
The Titans’ offense's buzz has been missing over the last month (21.25 points per game compared to 37 from Week 2 to Week 4), which led to three losses and the short end of the time of possession battle over their last three games. Tannehill has seven touchdowns and one interception over his past four starts, but he averaged 189.5 passing yards per game with emptiness in back-to-back contests (158/2 and 147/1). In 2019 in the playoffs against the Ravens, he attempted only 14 passes (88/2), with Derrick Henry (30/195) leading the show on the ground. Baltimore has the tenth-best defense vs. quarterbacks (20.76 FPPG), but they were lit up in two different games (KC – 411/5 and PHI – 262/3). Tannehill has the receiving talent to surprise while expecting to be a low percentage own.
Matthew Stafford, DET (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,500)
Stafford picked up an injury for the second straight season that may end up costing him multiple games. In Week 10, he suffered a slight tear in his right thumb that he will attempt to play through. Over his previous three starts, Stafford delivered two playable games (346/3 and 276/3), pushing him to 15th in quarterback scoring (21.13 FPPG). The Panthers are league average against quarterbacks (22.42 FPPG), with most of their failures coming over the last month (28.15, 35.20, and 35.25 fantasy points). I don’t expect Golladay to play on Sunday, which is a strike to Stafford’s value.
Jameis Winston, TB (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,200)
Winston now has the keys to the Saints’ offense after Drew Brees went down for multiple weeks with a rib/chest injury in Week 10. He struggled to make plays off the bench against the 49ers (63/0) while not looking sharp. New Orleans will rotate Taysom Hill, which makes the whole situation messy for fantasy owners. In 2019, Winston made plenty of big plays (75 completions over 20 yards), leading to 33 touchdowns and 5,109 passing yards. In 2019, he played well in one game against Atlanta (313/3 and 201/2). The Falcons remain last in the NFL in quarterback defense (30.18 FPPG), with six opponents scoring over 30.00 fantasy points (35.00, 45.30, 34.30, 32.85, 30.15, 33.35 fantasy points). New Orleans needs him to have success throwing the ball if they want to continue their playoff push. I fully expect over 300 yards passing with a pair of touchdowns as his floor.
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,700)
Over his first three NFL starts, Tagovailoa is 3-0 with no interceptions. The Dolphins’ defense played well in two games at home, which led to short passing production (93/1 and 169/2). Tagovailoa attempted 25 passes per game with short yards per pass attempt (6.7). The Broncos sit 15th in quarterback defense (22.39 FPPG) while not allowing an impact game. Four different opponents scored between 26.00 and 27.00 fantasy points—grinder type game, which makes Tagovailoa a tough start at DraftKings.
Carson Wentz, PHI (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,400)
In each of his previous five games, Wentz completed fewer than 58.5 percent of his passes while averaging 232.2 passing yards per game. He still doesn’t have a week with over two passing touchdowns. His best and only playable game (373/3) came in Week 7 versus the Giants. Wentz is on a career pace in rushing production (109/366/9). The Browns held quarterbacks to fewer than 16.00 fantasy points in four of their last five games, with weather helping their pass defense over the previous two weeks. Cleveland allows 23.47 FPPG (23rd) to the quarterback position. Four teams (BAL – 329/3, CIN – 335/3, DAL – 514/4, and CIN – 454/4) delivered winning scores. The Eagles are getting healthier on offense, which gives Wentz a chance to outperform his 2020 resume in this matchup.
Philip Rivers, IND (DK – $5,600/FD – $7,000)
Rivers only has 11 touchdowns over nine starts despite respectable stats in his completion rate (68.7) and yards per pass attempt (7.7). He has one touchdown or fewer in seven of his nine starts, with his only value game coming in Week 6 (371/3). The Packers rank fourth in quarterback defense (19.01 FPPG) after holding five of their previous six opponents to fewer than 17.00 fantasy points. The only excitement here is the play of Michael Pittman in the passing game in Week 10 (7/122). Rivers has the smell of a donation.
Joe Burrow, CIN (DK – $5,500/FD – $7,700)
A lousy offensive line and high-level pass rush by the Steelers led to Burrow coming up empty in Week 10 (213/1). He now has five games with one touchdown or fewer while passing over 300 yards. His only games of value came against the Browns (335/3 and 440/4). Washington has the 11th best defense against quarterbacks (21.04 FPPG). They had no answer for Kyler Murray (353/4) in Week 2. The Lions (276/3) and Rams (309/2) had the next best showings. Washington flashed a pass rush in three games (8, 6, and 5 sacks), which may be a sign of another short window for Burrow. His wide receivers give him a chance, but this matchup doesn’t paint an impactful picture.
Baker Mayfield, CLE (DK – $5,400/FD – $7,000)
Mayfield is the 27th ranked quarterback (15.78 FPPG) after 10 weeks of action. He passed for fewer than 200 yards six of his nine starts thanks to a high-level rushing offense in four games (35/215/3, 37/158/2, 40/307/3, and 41/231/1). Mayfield only has one playable game (316/5), which came on the road against the Bengals. Philadelphia ranks 13th in quarterback defense (21.68 FPPG), with one disaster showing (BAL – 294/2). Easy to avoid as his pulse is well below the daily game requirement.
Alex Smith, WAS (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,600)
The SI fantasy team painted an unsavory picture of Mr. Smith mid-game against the Lions. He climbed off the mat in the second half to give Washington a chance to win. Over two games, Smith completed 71.3 percent of his passes while gaining 8.2 yards per pass attempt. Both of these stats check the requirement to have success as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Smith has been a winning game manager. The Bengals started to lose their momentum in their pass defense (23.84 FPPG – 24th) over the last month (29.55, 33.85, 20.65, and 32.65 FPPG). Washington should move the ball in this game, but the passing game will have less value if they play from the lead. Worth a dart in a stack with Terry McLaurin/Cam Sims stack due to the salary relief.
Andy Dalton, DAL (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,900)
There hasn’t been a Cowboys’ offensive sighting since Week 5 when Dak Prescott went down with a significant ankle injury. Over the last four games, with a rotation of misfits at quarterback, Dallas passed for 803 yards and two passing touchdowns. Andy Dalton struggled in his first start in Arizona (266/1), but he did attempt 54 passes with 34 completions. The following week, Washington knocked him out of the game after a slow start (9-19 for 75 yards and no touchdowns). The Vikings worked their way to 18th in quarterback defense (22.76 FPPG). Earlier in the year, Green Bay (364/4) and Atlanta (371/4) delivered impact games against Minnesota. Dalton does have receiving weapons, and more practice time should lead to better results. An attractive backend quarterback option at DraftKings as his name won’t draw much excitement in the pregame fantasy chatter.
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