2021 Fantasy Football WR1 & WR2 Scoring Targets: Point Differentials Slowly Shrinking in Recent Seasons
Scoring Targets series
QB | RB1/RB2 | RB3/RB4 | WR1/WR2 | WR3/WR4 | TE | FLEX | K/DST
I have to admit I have a weakness for the wide receiver position. I like strength with my wideouts, which allows me to make fewer starting lineup decisions. Here's a look at the top 12 wide receivers over the last four seasons:
Top 12 wide receivers point totals (2017 – 2020)
Wide Receivers 1 to 12
Last year, the top 12 wide receivers averaged 96 catches for 1,241 yards and 10.3 touchdowns, which equaled 284.73 fantasy points in full-point PPR leagues or 17.80 points per week.
WR1 Averages (2013 to 2020)
- 2020: 96/1,241/10
- 2019: 95/1,250/9
- 2018: 104/1,381/9
- 2017: 92/1,231/7
- 2016: 92/1,212/9
- 2015: 103/1,396/10
- 2014: 97/1,406/10
- 2013: 95/1,401/10
The average WR1 outscored the average RB1 by 1.23 fantasy points in 2020.
WR1 Observations
Overall, an elite three-down running back has an edge almost every season over a top-tier wide receiver. However, there will be an exception when a top wideout catches plus receptions or scores a high volume of touchdowns (Randy Moss 2007 – 98/1,523/23, Calvin Johnson 2011 – 96/1,681/16, Marvin Harrison 2004 – 143/1,722/11, Wes Welker 2011 – 122/1,569/9, and Michael Thomas – 149/1,725/9).
At any position, scoring plus touchdowns will separate the top players from the field.
Over the last 20 years, we have seen some exceptional running backs that posted some crazy touchdown totals, highlighted by the great success of Christian McCaffrey in 2019 (471.20 fantasy points).
On occasion, we have seen a wide receiver be an edge player in fantasy football (Michael Thomas outscored the second-highest scoring wide receiver by 99.40 fantasy points in 2019).
Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports
A handful of receivers will score between 280-300 fantasy points each year in PPR leagues in most years. Over the last seven seasons, 37 wide receivers scored more than 280 fantasy points in PPR leagues (only one in 2019 – Michael Thomas).
One of my goals on draft day is to eliminate as many weekly lineup decisions as possible. The more decisions a fantasy owner has to make from week to week, the higher the chance of being wrong. The wide receiver position is very volatile. If a fantasy owner has too many players that look the same, it is nearly impossible to maximize your success over a long football season.
A fantasy owner that decides to draft a wide receiver strong team in a PPR league will eliminate much of the decision-making process for two possibly three wideout positions. This owner MUST draft one strong running back as the core of his roster.
Wide receivers 13 to 24 point totals (2017 – 2020)
Wide Receivers 13 to 24
It is interesting to see the gaps tighten up at the WR2 position over the past two years. Really, if you exclude the overall WR1 from the averages since both Thomas and Adams were head and shoulders above the rest over the last two seasons. In each of the last four years, the average WR2 score is climbing slowly but surely.
Last year, the second set of 12 wide receivers averaged 82 catches for 990 yards and six touchdowns. The top four wideouts in this grouping averaged 241.65 fantasy points (87/989/8). The difference between the WR13 (Keenan Allen) and the WR24 (Curtis Samuel) was 34.8 fantasy points, just a hair over two points per game.
As I mentioned earlier, the easiest mistakes to make in fantasy football will happen at the wide receiver position. There's nothing worse than having five wide receivers that have similar value. It makes it extremely tough to predict who to start every week.
A WR2 averaged about 14.31 fantasy points per week in 2020, which was the highest level of success for WR2s over the last eight seasons (2013 – 14.17, 2014 – 13.87, 2015 – 14.25, 2016 – 13.72, 2017 – 12.75, 2018 – 13.57, and 2019 – 13.99).
Last season's RB2s averaged 11.73 fantasy points per game.
WR2 Observations
The second wide receiver for most fantasy teams tends to be a steady piece to the puzzle. When making this selection, you are looking for a solid 200-plus point receiver in PPR leagues. The closer we get to the live draft season; the inventory will tighten up.
There are about 17 wide receivers in most seasons that will score 225-plus fantasy points in PPR leagues (19 in 2015, 15 in 2016, 12 in 2017, 17 in 2018, 17 in 2019, and 19 in 2020). So as much as some fantasy owners want to finesse the position, they can be short at wide receiver if other fantasy owners decide to triple up at wideout with their first three or four draft picks.
A fantasy owner needs to identify the opportunities at each position to help them determine which direction they want to go when building their team. A drafter from an early position will have a much different thought process than someone drawing a backend draft slot. For example, a team selecting two wide receivers early in drafts will be shopping in another aisle than a player choosing two running backs with their first two picks. Every draft will be different, but the opportunities after round five will somewhat be consistent.
The first cut of the 2021 NFL Rankings & Projections should give some insight into this draft season's potential values and targets.
More Fantasy Football:
- 2021 Fantasy Team Outlooks
- 2021 NFL Projections & Rankings
- Injury Reaction: Cam Akers Out for Season
- Fantasy Case Against David Montgomery
- Fantasy Case Against D'Andre Swift
Senior analyst Shawn Childs is a multi-sport, high-stakes fantasy legend with lifetime earnings in the high six-figures. He has been providing in-depth, analytical break downs for years all while helping his subscribers to countless titles and winnings across season-long & DFS. A inaugural inductee of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn can teach you how to prep like a champ!
