2022 Fantasy Baseball: Chicago White Sox Team Outlook
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The Chicago White Sox made the postseason in each of the last two years following an 11-year drought. Their pitching staff finished fifth in ERA (3.73) while shaving off 196 runs allowed from 2019. Chicago ranked 12th in bullpen ERA (3.97), with 32 wins, 29 losses and 49 saves. They finished seventh in runs (797), 19th in home runs (190) and 22nd in steals (57).
The White Sox parted ways with SP Carlos Rodon (FA) and Cesar Hernandez (WAS). Their only signing was RP Kendall Graveman.
Chicago has three young stud batters (Yoan Moncada, Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez) who haven’t posted elite success. The White Sox have questions at the back end of the starting lineup. They hope 1B Andrew Vaughn shows growth in his second season in the majors. Their offense has a high ceiling while also having some questions.
The foundation of their starting staff has two potential lead aces (Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn). In addition, SP Michael Kopech and SP Garrett Crochet have bright futures, while SP Dylan Cease appears a step ahead. The White Sox project to have a top pitching staff in 2022.
Their bullpen will be in good hands, with RP Liam Hendriks and RP Craig Kimbrel manning the eighth and ninth innings.
Chicago has three World Series titles (1906, 1917, 2005). Their team looks close to another deep postseason run.
Charles LeClaire/USA TODAY Sports
Starting Lineup
SS Tim Anderson
Over the last three seasons, Anderson showed the power of having an elite contact batting average (.429, .424 and .400). He hit .258 over his first 1,564 at-bats in the majors with a much lower CTBA (.355). His improved ability to make hard contact led to a .322 batting average over his previous 1,233 at-bats with 220 runs, 45 home runs, 138 RBI and 40 steals.
Earlier in his career with the White Sox, Anderson had weakness in his RBI rate (12.2), but he showed growth in 2021 (17%). His strikeout rate (21.6) has been at about the league average over the past three years, but he continues to have a low walk rate (4.0 – 3.5 in his career).
Anderson plays well vs. left-handed pitching (.423 with 28 home runs and 88 RBI over 738 at-bats). However, his swing path produces a low fly-ball rate (27.6, 26.4, 22.0), restricting his ceiling in power. On the positive side, Anderson delivered a higher HR/FB rate in 2020 (23.8) and 2021 (18.9 – 15.9). He ranked 300th out of 311 batters in launch angle (4.3) for players with 250 plate appearances last season.
He missed time last year with a couple of battles with hamstring issues.
Fantasy Outlook
With an early ADP of 36, Anderson needs to click on at least four cylinders to pay off. He ranked 29th by SIscore (3.77) for hitters last year while missing 39 games. However, his speed rebound helps bring a difference-maker skill set to fantasy team builds. Without more loft, Anderson becomes a challenging player to gauge in power. The goal here is to buy a .300/100/20/70/20 season with the idea of him having a breakout season in home runs.
OF Luis Robert
In 2019, Robert rocketed through the White Sox farm system. He hit .328 over 503 at-bats at High A, AA and AAA, leading to 108 runs, 32 home runs, 92 RBI and 36 stolen bases. Robert finished his explosive year with an exceptional contact batting average (.441) and strength in average hit rate (1.903).
Chicago gave him an entire season of playing time in 2020, but he looked overmatched at the plate based on his strikeout rate (32.2). Despite his struggles, his counting stats still piqued the interest of fantasy managers the following year (top 35 selection). Unfortunately for Robert and those who invested in him, he suffered a hip injury in early May.
After missing 86 games, he returned to the White Sox lineup on August 9. Robert helped fantasy teams down the stretch by hitting .350 over 180 at-bats with 31 runs, 12 home runs, 35 RBI and seven stolen bases. In addition, his bat showed growth in his strikeout rate (20.6) and RBI rate (18) while posting an elite contact batting average (.435).
Fantasy Outlook
The writing is on the wall for a complete breakout season. Robert hits the ball hard and he is making better contact. His speed should come in a big way in 2022, setting up a run at a 30/30 season. He has a second-round ADP (18) in mid-January in the NFBC. Don’t miss the ride.
1B Jose Abreu
Abreu is an example of a trusted asset in fantasy baseball. When selecting him, a fantasy manager is looking for a hitter with help in batting average while delivering 30-plus home runs and over 100 RBI. He’ll fall short of expectation in a category or two, but also make up ground in other areas.
Over the previous three seasons, Abreu hit .281 with 214 runs, 82 home runs, and 300 RBI over 1,440 at-bats. However, his range in contact batting average has been wide over the last four years (.338, .373, .420, and .350). He continues to be a top player in baseball in RBI rate (20) with strength in his average hit rate (1.838). Abreu ranked 217th in launch angle (10.4) but 30th in hard-hit rate (49.3). His HR/FB rate (19.9) fell in line with his career average, along with his fly-ball rate (34.9).
Despite success in 2021 in home runs and RBI, Abreu only played at a high level in May (.333/16/6/27) and August (.330/22/10/25). His swing had the best value vs. lefties (.294/11/30 over 136 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook
Since arriving in the majors in 2014, Abreu had only missed 75 games. He averages 0.71 RBIs per game, which breaks down to 106 RBI over 150 games. His ADP (72) is more than fair, considering Abreu finished 38th in SIscore (2.64) last season for hitters. At age 35, the beat won’t go on forever, but I expect another .270/85/30/100 season.
OF Eloy Jimenez
Jimenez missed over 140 games in his first three seasons with the White Sox. His bat broke through in September of 2019, leading to a .340 batting average over 100 at-bats with 19 runs, nine home runs and 25 RBI. He handled himself well over 55 games the following year. In 2021, his season started with a torn left pectoral injury. Jimenez didn’t play in his first game until July 26.
His final 2021 stats projected well over an entire season aside from runs (23 – 59 over 550 at-bats) and batting average (.249). Jimenez had a weaker contact batting average (.340) while playing well with runners on base (RBI rate – 18). His strikeout rate (24.7) and walk rate (6.9) trail the league average.
Jimenez never found his rhythm against left-handed pitching (.170/2/6 over 53 at-bats). His swing path was fly-ball favoring in 2020 (28.5) and 2021 (29.3). He continues to have an explosive HR/FB rate (21.7 – 26.8 in his career).
Over seven years in the minors, Jimenez hit .310 with 68 home runs, 286 RBI and 15 stolen bases over 1,630 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook
There is a lot to like with Jimenez. He has the tools to be a foundation high average bat with an edge in power and RBI, but staying healthy has been an issue. His ADP (64) points to a buying opportunity. With 150 games played, Jimenez has the talent to smash 40 home runs with 120 RBI. It’s a short par-5 with the wind at your back, tee him up and swing for the fences.
3B Yoan Moncada
Moncada is an excellent example of the struggles fantasy managers face in the current baseball market. He came into the majors with elite pedigree and a ton of speed on his minor league resume. Moncada appeared ready to be a trusted asset in the fantasy market in his second season with the White Sox. Over his next 720 at-bats, he hit .253 with 102 runs, 20 home runs, 85 RBI and three steals.
The first question is, what happened to his stolen bases (28 over 2,027 at-bats in the majors compared to 111 over 1,042 at-bats in the minors)? Next, at 6-2 and 225 pounds, will Moncada develop into an impact power hitter?
In 2021, he finished with the best approach of his career (strikeout rate – 25.5 and walk rate – 13.6). He had a rebound in his contact batting average (.377), but his average hit rate (1.562) is going in the wrong direction. Moncada finished with a weaker swing path (29.6% fly-ball rate). His HR/FB rate was a career-best in 2019 (20.2) while regressing over the past two years (12.5 and 13.0).
Last season, a significant part of his struggles came from hitting on the road (.241 with two home runs and 23 RBI over 249 at-bats). Moncada also failed to drive the ball vs. lefties (.252 with two home runs over 135 at-bats).
Fantasy Outlook
Moncada looks to be an easy player to dismiss in drafts based on his career path. His only category I trust is runs due to his ability to take walks. He won’t be a free agent until 2025, so Moncada has three seasons to build his resume. His ADP (145) doesn’t excite. Last year he finished 122nd in SIscore (-2.15 – 43rd in 2018) for hitters, but fantasy managers ranked him 89th in 2022. With that said, Moncada still has the talent to be a 30/30 player if the light bulb clicks on and he decides to run.
C Yasmani Grandal
Grandal is a third offensive player for the White Sox who suffered a significant injury in 2021. Over his first 62 games, he hit .190 with 42 runs, 14 home runs and 38 RBI over 179 at-bats. A left knee injury that required surgery cost him almost two months. Grandal became a stud over his final 98 at-bats (.337/18/9/24).
His walk rate (23.2) was the best in the game while also improving his strikeout rate (21.9). In addition, he ended the year with the highest HR/FB rate (28.4) of his career. His hard-hit rate (53.2) ranked 13th.
Over the previous five seasons, Grandal hit .240 with 330 runs, 132 home runs, 364 RBI and eight steals.
Fantasy Outlook
Grandal is the fifth catcher off the board this draft season with an ADP of 106. His ability to take walks shows in his runs, and he hits enough home runs to beat most of the catching field in RBIs. However, Grandal doesn’t project as an impact player, so his price point can be tricky with the wrong team build.
OF Andrew Vaughn
The White Sox snatched up Vaughn with the third overall pick in the 2019 June Amateur Draft. Over three seasons at California, he hit .374 with 145 runs, 50 home runs, 163 RBI and seven steals over 596 at-bats. His highlight year came in 2018 (.402 with 23 home runs and 63 RBI over 199 at-bats). His approach graded well over his final two seasons in college (strikeout rate – 10.2 and walk rate – 20.8).
Over a half year in the minors in 2019, Vaughn played at three levels (RK, A, and A+) while hitting .278 with six home runs and 36 RBI over 205 at-bats. He finished with 30 walks and 38 strikeouts.
In 2020, he should have transitioned to AA and AAA, but the COVID-19 shutdown led to no playing time at any level.
Injuries in the outfield for the White Sox led to Vaughn receiving 417 at-bats in the majors last year. He finished with reasonable runs (56), home runs (15) and RBI (48) for his playing time (417 at-bats), but his bat came up empty with runners on base (RBI rate – 10). On the positive side, Vaughn held his own at the plate (strikeout rate – 21.5 and walk rate – 8.7).
Based on his contact batting average (.310), he had a defensive swing on too many at-bats. Surprisingly, Vaughn ranked 54th in hard-hit rate (47.3) while lacking a power-producing launch angle (9.7 – 237th).
Fantasy Outlook
Vaughn comes off the board as the 138th batter with an ADP of 229 in the early draft seasons in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. However, a year in the big leagues should speed up his learning curve, and I expect him to be much better in 2022. Possible .270 with 70 runs, 25 home runs, and 75 RBI with 500 at-bats.
OF Gavin Sheets
Over four seasons in the minors, Sheets hit .282 with 169 runs, 37 home runs, 218 RBI and five stolen bases over 1,332 at-bats. In 2021, he delivered 22 home runs and 80 RBI between AAA and the majors. In addition, Sheets showed the ability to take walks (10.2%) in the minors while minimizing the damage in strikeouts (17.8%).
The White Sox gave him only 18 at-bats (two hits) against left-handed pitching. So, in essence, Sheets had two mini-windows for at-bats (July – .197/8/5/11 over 71 at-bats and September – .282/13/5/18 over 71 at-bats). His approach (strikeout rate – 22.4 and walk rate – 8.9) held form in Chicago.
Fantasy Outlook
Sheets had the bat to handle major-league pitching, but he came through the White Sox system as a first baseman. Chicago should rotate players at DH, while Sheets or Vaughn provide insurance for Jose Abreu. With only a platoon role, he makes more sense as an injury cover early in the season. I like his swing, but not his opportunity.
2B Leury Garcia
Over 10 years in the minors, Garcia hit .274 with 24 home runs, 219 RBI, and 206 steals over 2,510 at-bats. The White Sox gave him the most playing time of his career over the previous three seasons, leading to 1,051 at-bats (.274 with 159 runs, 16 home runs, 102 RBI and 21 stolen bases. His success projected over one year looks to be about an 80/10/50/10 player with a neutral batting average.
His approach was more competitive over the last two seasons, but his output looked dull almost every month. Garcia has a ground ball swing path (55.8%), with a fading HR/FB rate (6.5).
Fantasy Outlook
After the lockout, Chicago should upgrade its options at second base via free agency. Garcia work best as a utility fill-in player in the majors. He offers minimal starting fantasy value this season.
Bench Options
2B Danny Mendick
The White Sox gave Mendick some at-bats over the last three seasons, leading to a .239 batting average with 31 runs, seven home runs and 30 RBI. His contact batting average (.295) came in short last year with weakness in his average hit rate (1.306). Mendick finished with a better-than-league average approach.
Over six seasons in the minors, he hit .260 with 293 runs, 51 home runs, 245 RBI and 68 steals over 2,035 at-bats.
Fantasy Outlook
At this point in his career, Mendick will compete for a bench role. He has some sneaky speed with a chance to surprise over the short-term starting at-bats. Mendick won’t be drafted in any format.
OF Adam Engel
Engel hit .225 over 1,168 career at-bats with the White Sox while delivering 141 runs, 28 home runs, 106 RBI and 35 steals. His strikeout rate (21.5 – 29.2 in his career) improved over the past two seasons while posting his highest walk rate (6.0) in 2021.
Fantasy Outlook
In his minor-league career, Engel flashed elite stolen bases (202 over 2,173 at-bats). Last year's stats show potential growth, but he remains a backup player.
© Tim Fuller/USA TODAY Sports
Starting Pitching
SP Lucas Giolito
Giolito finished last season as the 30th-ranked pitcher by SIscore (1.61) while underperforming his draft price point and breakout season in 2019. He had a 4.15 ERA at the All-Star break due to struggles with home runs (18 over 104 innings). Giolito regained his form over his final 14 starts (5-3 with a 2.70 ERA and 85 strikeouts over 80 innings). He ended the year with growth in his walk rate (2.6) but a step back in his strikeout rate (10.1 – 11.7 over the previous two seasons).
His arsenal graded well vs. righties (.217 BAA) and lefties (.221 BAA). However, Giolito surrendered 18 of his 27 home runs over 87.1 innings at home. Over his last 20 starts, he issued 28 walks over 116 innings (2.2 per nine).
Giolito lost a tick off his fastball (94.0 MPH). He continues to have electric high volume changeup (.213 BAA), followed by a plus slider (.170 BAA) and show-me curveball (.182 BAA). His fly-ball rate (42.3) pushed higher with a minimal change in his HR/FB rate (13.8).
Fantasy Outlook
I’m a fan of arms with excellent changeups, as I believe they invite a lower injury risk. Giolito draws the 40th ADP in the early draft seasons in the NFBC as the 12th starter off the board. However, his ability to control the WHIP category over his previous 427.2 innings (1.076) is a massive plus. Not quite there in ERA, but it will come with a lower home run rate. The White Sox will score plenty of runs while having strength in their bullpen. Next step: 15 wins with a 3.00 ERA and 250 strikeouts, and a push to 200 innings.
SP Lance Lynn
Last year, Lynn continued his ace ways, leading to his career-best ERA (2.69). Unfortunately, he missed a handful of starts with a back injury and right knee issue. Even when Lynn was on the mound, he lost his workhorse status (5.6 innings per start – 6.35 over his previous 46 games). His walk rate (2.6) and strikeouts rate (10.2) have been elite over his last three seasons.
Over his first 23 starts, he went 10-3 with a 2.20 ERA, .199 BAA and 145 strikeouts over 130.2 innings. Lynn had two disaster games (13 runs, 16 baserunners and five home runs over 11 innings) over his final six starts.
His AFB (94.0) was slightly below 2019 (94.7). Batters continue to struggle with his four-seam fastball (.201 BAA) and cutter (.218 BAA) while offering success with his sinker (.240 BAA), changeup (.087 BAA), and curveball (.218 BAA). Lynn pitched up in the strike zone over the past two seasons (42.3 and 43.0%).
Fantasy Outlook
Lance brings a safe feel while owning a career 3.48 ERA over 1,583.2 innings with 1,591 strikeouts. However, last year, his nicks and pains could be life catching up to him. His ADP (62) priced him as the 22nd pitcher drafted. Coin toss, while his resume paints a 3.50 ERA and 175 strikeouts over 180 innings.
SP Dylan Cease
Over his first two seasons with the White Sox, Cease went 9-11 with 5.00 ERA and 125 strikeouts over 131.1 innings. His failure came from 27 home runs allowed (1.9 per nine) and a poor walk rate (4.7). However, his minor-league resume (21-16 with a 3.02 ERA over 450 strikeouts over 354.1 innings) suggested a higher ceiling.
Cease led the American League in strikeout rate (12.3) while lowering his walk rate (3.7). Batters hit .223 against him. He struggled on the road (4.69 ERA and 111 strikeouts over 80.2 innings). Cease jumped out of the gate with a 2.98 ERA and 66 strikeouts over 51.1 innings. He allowed three runs or fewer over 18 of his final 22 starts, but Cease had a 4.33 ERA over this span due to four disaster games (25 runs and 32 baserunners over 14.2 innings).
His AFB (96.8) is dominant in velocity, and his slider (.178 BAA), curveball (.186 BAA) and changeup (.205 BAA) reached elite status.
Fantasy Outlook
Cease now has an SP2 ADP (87) while still having a significant concern with his WHIP risk. However, his top-tier fastball paired with rising secondary pitches points to further growth. I need to see more before investing a high draft pick. I’ll leave this dance for you.
SP Dallas Keuchel
Keuchel worked his magic over 11 starts in 2020, leading to his career's lowest ERA (1.99). A year later, he battled too many bad games, leading to the worst season of his career. He gave up three runs or less in 17 of his 30 starts that last at least five innings.
Over the previous seven seasons, Keuchel went 81-55 with a 3.25 ERA and 917 strikeouts over 1,126.1 innings. Batters hit .290 against him last year.
His AFB (89.1) is about one MPH lower than his career-high (90.3). Keuchel offered a plus changeup and slider over his first nine seasons, but no pitch had success in 2021.
Fantasy Outlook
In this game of Monopoly, Keuchel is a complete avoid. If not, the go-straight-to-jail card seems appropriate.
SP Michael Kopech
Over five seasons in the minors, Kopech has a 3.05 ERA with 514 strikeouts in 395.2 innings. His walk rate (4.4) was well below being major-league ready, with strength in his strikeout rate (11.7).
In 2017, he dominated at AA (2.87 ERA with 155 strikeouts over 119.1 innings) while making strides in 2018 at AAA (3.70 ERA and 170 strikeouts over 126.1 innings). He pitched well in his first three appearances in the majors in 2018 (0.82 ERA and nine strikeouts over 11 innings), but his season ended on September 5 after a disaster start (seven runs, ten baserunners and four home runs over 3.1 innings) with a right elbow injury that required TJ surgery.
The White Sox used Kopech in relief last year, leading to a 3.90 ERA over 55.1 innings with 80 strikeouts. Over four short starts, he allowed three runs over 14 innings with 23 strikeouts.
He dominated left-handed batters (.176 BAA with seven walks and 54 strikeouts over 108 at-bats).
His average fastball (97.4) was electric. Kopech features a dominating slider (.187 BAA) and four-seam fastball (.229 BAA). He barely threw a curveball (.400 BAA) and changeup (.333 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
Kopech should win a starting job in spring training. However, he still needs a third pitch to become a top starting arm. His ADP (172) puts him in the SP4 in 12-team leagues. I don’t expect much more than 125 innings in 2022. However, his ERA and strikeouts will be helpful when he is on the mound.
SP Garrett Crochet
Despite some crooked stats in college (4.64 ERA, 1.402 WHIP and 149 strikeouts over 132 innings), the White Sox selected Crochet 11th overall in the 2020 MLB June Amateur Draft.
Chicago gave Crochet a relief role last season. His ERA (2.82) came in as an asset while batters only hit .213 against him. He struggled with his command (4.5 walks per nine), but his strikeout rate (10.8) was an edge.
His average fastball (96.8) has a high ceiling despite batters drilling his four-seamer (.314 BAA). Crochet featured an electric slider (.132 BAA), and he didn’t allow a hit off his low-volume changeup (69 pitched – 7.2%).
Fantasy Outlook
Crochet should develop into a top-tier pitcher. His command needs work in and out of the strike zone. Even with a starting job early in the season, his innings should be capped at about 100. His ADP (534) puts him in the free-agent pool in all redraft leagues.
SP Jonathan Stiever
Stiever finished his college career with a 10-11 record with a 3.56 ERA and 184 strikeouts over 217.2 innings. His walk rate (1.9) was a strength while seeing a bump in his strikeout rate (8.7) in 2018.
Over his first two seasons in the minors, Stiever posted a 3.59 ERA with 193 strikeouts over 173 innings while throwing the ball the best at High A in 2019 (6-4 with a 2.15 ERA and 77 strikeouts over 71 innings). Stiever struggled last year after making a jump to AAA (5.84 ERA, 1.459 WHIP, and 88 strikeouts over 74 innings.
The White Sox gave him three appearances in the majors over the past two seasons. Stiever served up four home runs and 10 runs over 6.1 innings with four walks and three strikes. His AFB (93.8) came in shorter than expected while offering a slider, changeup, and curveball.
Fantasy Outlook
Stiever needs more time to develop at AAA. His lack of success in Chicago points to a rough ride early in his career.
Matt Marton/USA Today Sports
Bullpen
RP Liam Hendriks
Hendriks finished last year with more home runs allowed (11) than walks (7). He set a career-high in wins (8), saves (38) and strikeout rate (14.3). Over the previous three seasons in a closer role, Hendriks went 15-8 with a 2.08 ERA, 0.833 WHIP, 274 strikeouts and 77 strikeouts over 181.1 innings.
His average fastball (97.8) was the best of his career. Batters had no answer for his four-seamer (.217 BAA), slider (.096 BAA) and curveball (.100 BAA). He allowed the highest fly-ball rate (50.7%) of his career while showing risk in his HR/FB rate (15.1).
Despite his success, Hendriks struggled in April (4.35 ERA) and August (5.73 ERA). He gave up seven home runs over 21.1 innings during his poor months.
Fantasy Outlook
Hendriks is the first closer off the board in 2022, with an ADP of 35. He offers an edge in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and saves. His next step should be 40-plus saves, and the White Sox will pitch him in tie games.
RP Craig Kimbrel
After struggling in 2019 and 2020 (0-5 with a 6.00 ERA and 58 strikeouts over 36 innings), Kimbrel dominated with the Cubs (0.49 ERA with 64 strikeouts and 23 saves over 36.2 innings). Unfortunately, the magic ended once he moved to the South Side (5.09 ERA and 36 strikeouts over 23 innings) due to five home runs allowed.
His AFB (96.7) continues to be a plus. Batters struggled to hit his four-seam fastball (.181 BAA) and curveball (.121 BAA), which almost match his career averages.
Over his previous three full seasons with Boston, Kimbrel went 12-7 with a 2.44 ERA and 305 strikeouts over 184.1 innings while converting 108 of 119 saves.
Fantasy Outlook
Kimbrel has 372 career saves, but he’ll take the eighth inning for the White Sox this season. His ADP (145) is mispriced in the early draft season when considering his minimal chance at saves. Only a handcuff, while high upside if given a closing opportunity.
RP Kendall Graveman
Graveman battled a right shoulder injury in 2017, followed by TJ surgery in July of 2018. Last year, Seattle gave him save chances over the first six weeks, leading to 16.2 shutout innings with 17 strikeouts and five saves. However, a battle with COVID-19 cost him the next 26 days. Graveman earned three wins and five saves over his next 16.1 innings with 17 strikeouts. His season ended with a setup role for the Astros.
Over his first four seasons with the A’s, Graveman went 22-24 with a 4.11 ERA and 259 strikeouts over 411.2 innings. His strikeout rate (5.8) didn’t have a pulse, but he threw strikes (walk rate – 2.6). Graveman went 19-12 with a 2.65 ERA and 185 strikeouts over 271.1 innings in the minors.
His AFB (96.2) came in better than expected while featuring a plus sinker (.196 BAA) and slider (.115 BAA). However, Graveman needs improvement against lefties (.253 BAA).
Fantasy Outlook
He has a short resume of success in the majors, but a switch to the bullpen has unlocked his upside. Graveman projects as the seventh-inning arm for the White Sox with a waiver wire ADP (477).
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