Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Freddie Freeman Are Top First Basemen Based on Fantasy ADP

Here's a look at where top-tier first basemen are going in fantasy drafts and which second-tier players could provide sleeper value.

Last year, 17 first basemen finished with more than 500 at-bats. Five of those players (Jonathan Schoop, D.J. LeMahieu, Jake Cronenworth, Ty France and Ryan Mountcastle) saw many at-bats at other positions. Only five first basemen had over 200 combined runs and RBI: Vladimir Guerrero (234), Freddie Freeman (203), Paul Goldschmidt (201), Matt Olson (212) and Jose Abreu (203). Ten first basemen finished with 30 home runs or more.

• MORE: 2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit

Here's a look at the top 12 first baseman last season:

The stats highlighted by the yellow line show the average stats for the top 12 first basemen in 2021 (.272 with 89 runs, 34 home runs, 97 RBI, and four steals over 537 at-bats).

Note: Players with multiple position eligibility will impact the top 12 ratings for each position. I sorted this grouping by position, then at-bats, followed by home runs.

Here’s a look at the top 12 first basemen by 2022 ADPs in early March:

Vladimir Guerrero moved to stud status after his monster breakthrough year in 2021. As a result, he falls in the foundation high-average, power player category for fantasy building. Guerrero will be a top-five player drafted in most fantasy leagues this year.

Freddie Freeman will have found his new home in the Dodgers’ starting lineup by press time on this article. His resume of success is long while offering more of a line drive swing path. He brings a four-category skill set while chipping in with a few steals.

The escape from Oakland was a big win for Matt Olson and his wallet. He gets an upgrade in overall starting lineup with the Braves, plus an improved home ballpark. I expect a bump in batting average with plenty of help in runs, home runs and RBI.

Paul Goldschmidt and Jose Abreu fit the veteran-proven resume column. Goldschmidt had an excellent rebound season last year, with speed working its way back onto his stat sheet. The Cardinals have developing offensive talent surrounding him in the starting lineup, setting the stage for another productive year, but I expect a step back in steals. Abreu tends to fall short of the best first basemen in runs. He’ll start the year at 35 while coming off a career-low in batting average. The White Sox have plenty of firepower in their starting lineup, giving him another chance at a winning season.

Pete Alonso has league-leading power upside, and his approach showed growth last year. His next step comes with better offensive play by the other supporting cast by the Mets.

In his first season with the Orioles, Ryan Mountcastle came with better power than expected, but his batting average fell short of expectations. Baltimore has a questionable supporting cast, limiting his ceiling in runs and RBI. His minor league resume supports a significant step forward in his batting average in 2022.

Over the past two seasons, Josh Bell produced many ground balls, reducing his impact in home runs. In his breakthrough year in 2019, his swing path was much more balanced. Bell has an above-average approach, so keep an open mind with his impact value.

The second tier

Here’s a look at the second 12 potential fantasy first basemen:

The next wave of stud first basemen has yet to arrive, but there are hints of a couple of options arriving onto the scene in 2022. Spencer Torkelson smashed his way to the majors after an excellent season over three levels of the minors (.267 with 89 runs, 30 home runs and 91 RBI over 431 at-bats) in 2021. His bat looks explosive while owning an excellent approach. His next step is solving major-league pitching. I expect him to be in the starting lineup for the Tigers on opening day. Torkelson has a favorable ADP (249.1) and I expect him to outperform his price point in a big way this year.

Alex Kirilloff had the look of a high average bat with 20-plus home run power in 2018 between A and A+, but he lost development time in 2020 due to no minorleague baseball. Kirilloff missed more than half of last year with a right wrist issue in his first experience with the Twins. I view him as a steady player with upside, especially for a fantasy team looking for help in batting average. Minnesota should slot him somewhere in the middle of their batting order, helping his value in runs and RBI.

Bobby Dalbec has a boom or bust swing while showing a willingness to take a walk in the minors. His ceiling in power is high, but it comes at the expense of his batting average. He projects to bat sixth or seventh in the batting order for the Red Sox, leading to a weaker total in runs. If a fantasy manager wants to add his low average power, it's all about the correct team structure.

Some drafters will gravitate toward Brandon Belt after flashing more power (38 home runs and 89) and batting average (.285) over his last 474 at-bats. His fly-ball swing path leads to some easy outs, but more of his swings have left the park in 2020 and 2021. Belt turns 34 in mid-April while having his highest ADP (218) in years. He is on the improve while also owning an above-average approach for most of his MLB career.

Yuli Gurriel has the best resume in batting average, but he’ll turn 38 in June. At what point does his bat regress? The word on the street is that Nathaniel Lowe has been working hard in the offseason to improve his swing path to create more home runs. His stolen bases (8) last year don’t look repeatable based on his minor-league career path.

Frank Schwindel received the best opportunity of his career in 2021 at age 29. He outperformed expectations over the last two months last season, but he still has the bat to help in batting average with a 20/80 floor if the Cubs give him their starting first base job for 550 at-bats.

The Dodgers expect Max Muncy to be limited out of the gate, pushing him to the DH role until his elbow fully recovers from offseason surgery. His bat fits best as a second base option. Muncy has plus power with the approach to take plenty of walks.

Anthony Rizzo and Trey Mancini have proven major league resumes. Rizzo underachieved last year, but a second season with New York should lead to a rebound in success and production. Baltimore did push its outfield fences back in the offseason, which points to a step back in power by Mancini.