Early Look at Average Draft Position for 2023 Fantasy Football Season
Fantasy fans now have a clear look at how all 32 NFL teams stack up after the end of the NFL draft, which makes average draft position (ADP) values closer to what they might be in actual fantasy drafts. After all, draft season is almost here! With that said, let’s look at ADPs at Bestball10s. The best-ball drafts I’ve examined have occurred in the last two weeks and include the rookies with their new NFL teams.
Here are some of the more notable trends I’ve found, listed by position. Let’s start off with the quarterbacks, where the cream of the crop is going higher than in past years.
Quarterbacks
The elite players at the position are moving up in early best-ball drafts, as Patrick Mahomes (14.08), Josh Allen (15.17) and Jalen Hurts (18.08) are all coming off the board in the top 20 picks. Joe Burrow (28.08) is the consensus No. 4 quarterback.
The next three field generals are Justin Fields (41.75), Lamar Jackson (43.92) and Justin Herbert (61.17), with Trevor Lawrence (61.17) close behind. Geno Smith, the No. 5 fantasy quarterback from last season, is the 11th signal-caller coming off the board. He could be a steal if he duplicates his 2022 numbers. Aaron Rodgers, now with the Jets, is the QB16 with an average draft position of 186.33.
Questions about Kyler Murray’s return to the field following knee surgery have his stock falling, as he’s currently the QB19 with an ADP of 193.92. If you’re the type of fantasy manager who likes to wait, taking Murray to be your QB1 is an option.
The first rookie signal-caller coming off the board is Anthony Richardson at 196.17. The second is Bryce Young (205.50), followed by C.J. Stroud (218.08). Among the other young quarterbacks who will come off the board in the later rounds as fantasy backups, Kenny Pickett and Jordan Love both have an ADP of more than 200.
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Running Backs
The top two backs off the board are who you would expect, with Christian McCaffrey (2.75) and Austin Ekeler (5.08) leading the charge. Jonathan Taylor, who was a huge disappointment last season, has passed Saquon Barkley (12.75) and Derrick Henry (17.00) as the RB3. He’s one spot ahead of Bijan Robinson, who will be a first-round pick in all best-ball and seasonal formats. Nick Chubb (21.83), Najee Harris (25.83), Josh Jacobs (27.50) and Tony Pollard (31.83) round out the top 10 runners.
The second rookie off the board, Jahmyr Gibbs, has an ADP of 44.00. The next first-year back, believe it or not, is Zach Charbonnet (182.83). He’ll be behind Kenneth Walker in the Seahawks backfield, but the best ball folks aren’t concerned. Speaking of Walker, he’s dropped to RB15 behind Gibbs, Breece Hall and Travis Etienne.
This year’s drafts will have a different look at the position, as former first-round picks like Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara have fallen out of the top 36. Kamara, who has seen his reception numbers sink without Drew Brees, is the RB30 based on Bestball10s data. A looming suspension obviously hurt his stock even further.
D’Andre Swift, now with the Eagles, has pushed into the top 20 runners, though he will still have to contend with Rashaad Penny. Javonte Williams, who is coming off a serious knee injury, comes in at RB21 with an average draft position of 137.17.
For those looking at sleepers, James Cook (RB28), Brian Robinson (R32), Khalil Herbert (RB34) and Samaje Perine (RB37) are all coming at reasonable prices.
Wide Receivers
The wide receiver position has made a big move at the top of the drafts, as seven of the first 12 picks are wideouts. Justin Jefferson (1.23) is the consensus No. 1 overall pick, followed by Ja’Marr Chase (3.00). Tyreek Hill (6.92) has moved slightly ahead of Cooper Kupp (8.23) as the WR3, while Stefon Diggs (9.31), Davante Adams (10.85), A.J. Brown (12.69) and CeeDee Lamb (13.31) round out the top eight.
Garrett Wilson has Rodgers under center in the Big Apple and is now a top 10 wideout based on ADP data. Calvin Ridley’s stock is also rising, as he’s the WR19 on average in the month of May. That’s a little too rich for my blood, though. I’d still rather have DeAndre Hopkins, who is the current WR20 with an ADP of 89.62. That has much to do with questions about Murray’s return date from a knee injury.
New Bears wideout D.J. Moore (121.15) comes in at WR21, ahead of both Tampa Bay receivers Mike Evans (141.31) and Chris Godwin (156.46). Their stock has fallen with Tom Brady retired and Baker Mayfield the new projected starter. I’d rather have Godwin in fantasy drafts, but neither will be more than a mid-to-low No. 2.
The first rookie off the board is Jaxon Smith-Njigba (179.62), with Jordan Addison a close second at 185.08. I’d flip the two in redrafts, as Smith-Njigba must contend with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett while Addison is a likely starter in Year 1. The two other top rookies, Quentin Johnston and Zay Flowers, come in at WR47 and WR48.
Odell Beckham Jr., now the projected No. 1 wideout in Baltimore, is going at 196.08 behind teammates Flowers and Rashod Bateman (184.85). Michael Thomas, who is another risk-reward veteran in fantasy drafts, is going at 192.46. That’s nearly 160 spots behind his Saints teammate Chris Olave, who comes in as the WR14.
If you’re looking for potential breakout or sleeper candidates, Treylon Burks (WR38), Kadarius Toney (WR39) and Jahan Dotson (WR43) are middle-round choices.
Kirby Lee/USA TODAY Sports
Tight Ends
The obvious leader at tight end is Travis Kelce, whose ADP is at 3.77. That’s right, Kelce is a top-five pick in current best-ball formats. To the surprise of no one, Mark Andrews (25.62) and T.J. Hockenson (32.31) round out the top three at the position. George Kittle (40.54) and Dallas Goedert (52.77) fill out the top five, with new Giants tight end Darren Waller (94.00) close behind. Kyle Pitts has fallen after what was a disappointing 2022 campaign, ranking as the TE8 in the month of May.
The first rookie off the board is Dalton Kincaid (TE16), with Sam LaPorta (TE25) and Michael Mayer (TE28) far behind. If you were wondering, Kincaid is going one spot ahead of his new teammate, Dawson Knox (TE15). The other young tight ends who could have some sleeper appeal include Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE13), Greg Dulcich (TE14) and Trey McBride (TE24), who could have an early-season role in Arizona if Zach Ertz (knee) is unable to return in time for the start of the 2023 campaign.
